Gale Warning 433, NWS Anchorage, AK

627 
FZAK52 PAFC 142346
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
346 PM AKDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-151245-
346 PM AKDT Tue Jul 14 2026
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 1010 mb low 40 nm NE of Shemya moves to 50 nm NW of Nelson 
Lagoon at 1008 mb Thu afternoon.

$$

PKZ750-151245-
Sitkinak to Castle Cape out to 15 NM-
346 PM AKDT Tue Jul 14 2026

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ751-151245-
Sitkinak to Castle Cape from 15 to 100 NM-
346 PM AKDT Tue Jul 14 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ752-151245-
Castle Cape to Cape Tolstoi out to 15 NM-
346 PM AKDT Tue Jul 14 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 5 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ753-151245-
Castle Cape to Cape Tolstoi from 15 to 100 NM-
346 PM AKDT Tue Jul 14 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ754-151245-
Cape Tolstoi to Cape Sarichef out to 15 NM-
346 PM AKDT Tue Jul 14 2026

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 7 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ755-151245-
Cape Tolstoi to Unalga Pass from 15 to 100 NM-
346 PM AKDT Tue Jul 14 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain showers.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ756-151245-
Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon out to 15 NM-
346 PM AKDT Tue Jul 14 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ757-151245-
Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon from 15 to 60 NM-
346 PM AKDT Tue Jul 14 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ758-151245-
Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef out to 15 NM-
346 PM AKDT Tue Jul 14 2026

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming NW 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 4 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ759-151245-
Nelson Lagoon to Unalga Pass 15 to 70 nm-
346 PM AKDT Tue Jul 14 2026

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ768-151245-
Unimak Pass-
346 PM AKDT Tue Jul 14 2026

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ770-151245-
Unalga Pass to Nikolski Bering Side out to 15 NM-
346 PM AKDT Tue Jul 14 2026

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ772-151245-
Unalga Pass to Nikolski Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
346 PM AKDT Tue Jul 14 2026

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ771-151245-
Unalaska Bay-
346 PM AKDT Tue Jul 14 2026

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt becoming SE after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
Rain.
.WED...S wind 15 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
Widespread rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft. Rain showers.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ773-151245-
Unalga Pass to Nikolski Pacific Side out to 15 NM-
346 PM AKDT Tue Jul 14 2026

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ774-151245-
Unalga Pass to Nikolski Pacific Side from 15 to 85 NM-
346 PM AKDT Tue Jul 14 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ775-151245-
Nikolski to Seguam Bering Side out to 15 NM-
346 PM AKDT Tue Jul 14 2026

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ776-151245-
Nikolski to Seguam Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
346 PM AKDT Tue Jul 14 2026

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt becoming NW in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft.
Rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ777-151245-
Nikolski to Seguam Pacfic Side out to 15 NM-
346 PM AKDT Tue Jul 14 2026

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ778-151245-
Nikolski to Seguam Pacific Side from 15 to 75 NM-
346 PM AKDT Tue Jul 14 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ780-151245-
Seguam to Adak Bering Side out to 15 NM-
346 PM AKDT Tue Jul 14 2026

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ781-151245-
Seguam to Adak Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
346 PM AKDT Tue Jul 14 2026

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ782-151245-
Seguam to Adak Pacific Side out to 15 NM-
346 PM AKDT Tue Jul 14 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ783-151245-
Seguam to Adak Pacific Side from 15 to 75 NM-
346 PM AKDT Tue Jul 14 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ784-151245-
Adak to Kiska Bering Side-
346 PM AKDT Tue Jul 14 2026

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ785-151245-
Adak to Kiska Pacific Side-
346 PM AKDT Tue Jul 14 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ786-151245-
Kiska to Attu Bering Side-
346 PM AKDT Tue Jul 14 2026

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ787-151245-
Kiska to Attu Pacific Side-
346 PM AKDT Tue Jul 14 2026

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ766-151245-
Pribilof Islands Nearshore Waters-
346 PM AKDT Tue Jul 14 2026

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Areas of fog.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Areas of fog.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Areas of fog.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ760-151245-
Bristol Bay greater than 15 NM-
346 PM AKDT Tue Jul 14 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ761-151245-
Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 15 NM-
346 PM AKDT Tue Jul 14 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ762-151245-
Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Pierce out to 15 NM-
346 PM AKDT Tue Jul 14 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ763-151245-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 NM-
346 PM AKDT Tue Jul 14 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 5 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ764-151245-
Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 NM-
346 PM AKDT Tue Jul 14 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft.
Areas of fog.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 10 kt becoming NW after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ765-151245-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
346 PM AKDT Tue Jul 14 2026

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ767-151245-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
346 PM AKDT Tue Jul 14 2026

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Areas of fog.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Areas of fog.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...W 20 kt
W of Saint Matthew Island. Seas 4 ft. Areas of fog.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
525 AM AKDT Tue Jul 14 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Thursday)...

Scattered showers will prevail on Tuesday as the next in a series
of shortwave troughs lift across the region. Morning radar shows
widespread precipitation extending from Kodiak Island up into the
Susitna Valley and Prince William Sound. As has been advertised
in previous forecast discussions, gusty southeasterly winds are
expected through much of the day on Tuesday, especially for gap
wind prone locations. Winds coming out of the Turnagain Arm will
at times bend into Anchorage. Likewise, southerly winds pushing
into the Sound will also accelerate northward through the Copper
River Basin.

A wind advisory remains in effect for Anchorage and the Anchorage
Hillside, where peak winds could gust as high as 45 to 65 mph.
The strongest winds will occur at elevation, though isolated gusts
will have the potential to work their way to the surface as well.
Winds will be strongest ahead of the trough axis. For western
portions of Southcentral, this means peak winds will extend from
the late morning hours into the early evening hours on Tuesday,
gradually subsiding thereafter as the trough axis overtakes the
Anchorage Bowl and lifts northeastward. Gusty winds from Cordova
into the Copper River Basin should persist later into the early
morning hours on Wednesday before also being surpassed by the
trough.

Scattered showers across Southcentral will likely be ongoing
during the morning hours on Wednesday. Rain chances will then
diminish somewhat over the second half of the day on Wednesday as
upper level forcing for ascent scoots north of the Alaska Range.
The pattern, however, will remain active with yet another upper
trough forecast to move into Southcentral on Thursday. Expect more
rain and potential winds over the latter half of the week, with
unseasonably cooler temperatures to continue.

-BL

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Friday)...

A longwave trough has set up over the Bering Sea and into Western
Alaska. Embedded within this longwave trough is multiple strong
shortwaves which will move across the Bering and the Mainland and
bring widespread rainfall. This pattern will linger on through the
week with periods of widespread rainfall expected.

Rainfall continues over the Southwest Mainland as one of the
strong shortwaves passes through the area. Gusty westerly winds
up to galeforce (up to 35 to 40 mph gusts) will be over Bristol
Bay and into the Dillingham and King Salmon areas. These winds
will gradually diminish through Wednesday. Speaking of Wednesday,
rainfall will become more scattered over the mainland as the area
becomes in between shortwaves. A low will move into the Bering on
Wednesday and will bring more rainfall and elevated winds (near
small craft). By Thursday, this low will push into the Alaska
Peninsula, leading to widespread rainfall returning to the
Southwest Mainland. Friday will see rainfall continue over the
mainland as the upper low sits in place. Also, another low will
move into the Bering and will bring even more rainfall and
elevated wind speeds.

High temperatures for the week remain below 60F due to the
widespread cloud cover and rainfall, with low temperatures dipping
into the low 40s for many locations by midweek. Wind speeds over
the Southwest Mainland will generally be southerly and westerly at
10 to 15 mph through the week as the shortwaves move through. This
pattern looks to persist into the weekend with continued upper
troughing.

-JH/JAR

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...

No change from previous Long Term discussion... Longwave trough
remains in place over the Mainland through the end of this week.
Multiple waves of moisture moving through Southwest and
Southcentral Alaska will provide periods of light to moderate
rainfall during this time. Utilizing an ensemble mean forecast
model approach mitigates the outlier differences while keeping
this long range forecast trend.

Southcentral: Waves of moisture move through the Gulf bringing
periods of locally moderate rainfall to Prince William Sound,
Kodiak Island and Eastern Kenai Peninsula through Saturday.
Persistent southerly to southwesterly flow will provide the
conditions for stronger waves of moisture to track inland to the
Copper River Basin, Anchorage Bowl and Mat-Su Valleys. This flow
will also result in seasonally cooler pattern from increased
cloud cover and cooler temperatures.

Southwest: With the trough firmly in place, multiple low pressure
systems will move through the Bering Sea. Periods of light to
moderate rain are expected from the Aleutians to the Alaska
Peninsula through Friday. These conditions reach the Mainland by
Saturday keeping the pattern of seasonally cool temperatures and
cloud cover through this upcoming weekend.

-Johnston/DD

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Rain continues through most of the day today. Gusty
southeast winds should prevent ceilings from dropping below MVFR
today. During heavier bursts of rain, especially late morning to
early afternoon, expect ceilings to oscillate between VFR and
MVFR, as well as drops in visibility to MVFR. Southeast winds
looks to be at their strongest, around 35 kts, this morning
through early afternoon before diminishing back to around 20 to 25
kts this evening. While the expectation is for winds to remain
predominantly out of the southeast at the surface, some northerly
flow may create periods of wind shear through the morning hours.
Southerly to southeast wind gusts increase back to around 30 kts
Wednesday morning as flow aloft shifts to up- inlet. Showers taper
off towards the end of the TAF period early Wednesday morning
with VFR conditions returning predominantly. Although, ceilings at
5000 ft along with a scattered MVFR deck are not out of the
question.

-DAN

&&