Gale Warning 418, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
508 AM AKDT Fri Jun 12 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Discussion:

Several key features in place today that will come into play over
the next several days. Currently, high pressure remains over the
Bering Sea with another stout ridge entrenched over much of the
western Canadian Territories. Various low pressure systems are
positioned around and in between these areas of high pressure.
Several shortwaves have been transiting across the Bering Strait
and northern Alaska, helping to give a bit of lift to afternoon
convection over the past several days. A weak trough remains
stalled over the Central Chugach this morning but will lift
north through the Copper River Basin today. This feature will help
drive another round of scattered shower and thunderstorm activity
from the foothills of the Talkeetna Mountains through the basin
to the Alaska Range. Much like previous days, the overall steering
flow remains relatively weak so any convective shower will result
in some brief heavy downpours. The nearly saturated marine layer
across Kennedy Entrance and Cook Inlet has resulted in the
redevelopment of widespread low stratus and fog that has advected
as far north as Willow and Palmer overnight. This area of low
clouds and fog will likely linger through mid morning before
slowly eroding.

Further south, a low moving up from the North Pacific into the
southwestern Gulf will bring gale force winds as the front lifts
across the Gulf. Gusty east to northeast winds are expected for
Kodiak Island with periods of moderate to heavy rainfall from Friday
afternoon through late Saturday. The heaviest rainfall will
accompany the front as it quickly lifts through resulting in a
general 1-2 inches for many locations across Kodiak Island, though
some isolated 2-3 inches are possible especially for areas of
enhanced upslope flow. This low will track to the south of Kodiak
Island before stalling and weakening near Sand Point.

For interior locations, southeasterly gap winds will precede the
front as a coastal ridge builds, resulting in a tightening of the
surface pressure gradient between it and a trough over interior
Alaska. Expect gusts 30 to 40 mph for Turnagain Arm, West
Anchorage, and Palmer from late this afternoon through late
tonight.

The eastern Kenai Peninsula and northern Gulf coast will also
widespread rainfall as the front lifts through. Another low will
quickly move up along the eastern periphery of the aforementioned
low...quickly deepening before it lifts towards the eastern Kenai
Peninsula and weakens. This low will bring a modest surge of
moisture north with another round of moderate to heavy
rainfall for the northern Gulf and Prince William Sound.

- PP/TM

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Sunday afternoon)...

The pattern of fog in the Bering, and convective systems over
Southwest Alaska is expected to continue today and tonight, but
will be changing as a new low pressure system makes it's approach
Saturday. In the Southwest interior, warmer weather and rain
showers/thunderstorms continue this afternoon and tomorrow
afternoon, then conditions cool and stabilize under increasing
cloud cover this weekend. Along the Southwest coast, fog this
morning will retreat into the Bering by the afternoon, and
continue to weaken/lift into the weekend.

Ample surface heating over the Southwest Alaska interior will
continue to promote afternoon convective activity, with isolated
wet thunderstorms possible this, and Friday afternoon. Similarly
isolated thunderstorms are possible Saturday, however will likely
be consolidated to northern extent of the Lower Kuskokwim Valley
if they develop. Drier and hotter conditions over the interior of
Southwest will continue to be a forecast focus today and tomorrow,
and how the uptick in winds from the incoming low pressure system
plays a role. For now, this is fringing on ideal fire weather
conditions, with temperatures expected in the low 70s, RHs near
30, and wind speeds near 10 mph this afternoon.

The new low pressure system poised to approach the southern
Alaska Peninsula by late this afternoon will bring the
aforementioned uptick in easterly offshore winds to the Bristol
Bay area and portions of interior Southwest Alaska. This system's
rainfall and movement in the overall air column will bring a
reprieve in the fog over the area, but replace it with continued
low stratus and light rain. Easterly gale-force winds are expected
to establish over the southern side of the Peninsula, including
for communities such as Sand Point, persisting into Saturday
morning. Dillingham may see winds gusting as strong as 40 to 50
mph peaking late Saturday afternoon. The highest rain amounts will
be along the Pacific side of the Alaska Peninsula (including
Chignik) at around 1 to 1.5 inches of rain from Friday into the
weekend. Rain amounts outside of this area will be much lower, as
the bulk of moisture will remain limited to the Pacific and Gulf
coasts.

-CL

&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Monday through Thursday)...

Starting early next week, there will be an upper level trough over
mainland Alaska and the Gulf of Alaska/Kodiak Island, with a ridge
upstream over the Bering Sea/Aleutians. This will be the tail end
of wet and windy weather across much of southern AK and bordering
coastal waters, with showers and clouds lingering across much of
the region. As we continue through the week, the high amplitude
trough will exit eastward to Canada, leaving a weak flow regime
with weak embedded features. The subtropical jetstream over the
North Pacific will also weaken through the week, with a noted
absence of strong storm systems. Thus, the pattern looks very
"summer-like", with daily afternoon/evening showers and
thunderstorms over southern AK driven by surface heating and
resulting instability and generally light winds across much of the
Aleutian, Gulf and southern AK coastal waters. While the week
will start out cloudy, expect increasing sunshine and warming
temperatures through the week. High pressure will remain centered
across the southern Bering and Aleutians, so widespread low clouds
and fog will be common.

-SEB

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...A light up-inlet flow will persist this morning, allowing
another marine stratus layer to return over the Terminal through
around noon. Expect LIFR or IFR conditions through mid-morning due
to both the low stratus and areas of fog moving in and out of the
terminal. Similar to yesterday, IFR to MVFR conditions may persist
through late morning or around noon before the marine layer
retreats back over Cook Inlet and VFR conditions prevail. Once the
marine layer advects back over the inlet, VFR conditions are
expected through Saturday. Another reason for the improved cigs
and vis later today will be the development of a southeasterly
Turnagain Arm wind that is expected to clip West Anchorage and
the terminal by late afternoon or early evening. Wind gusts of 30
to 40 mph are possible this evening before the the pressure
gradient shifts and the Turnagain Arm bends away from the terminal
and down Cook Inlet, likely between 1 AM and 3 AM. LLWS will be
possible early Saturday morning as the surface winds become
northerly while winds aloft remain southeasterly. The
southeasterly winds off Turnagain Arm are expected to move back
over the terminal Saturday afternoon.

&&