Gale Warning 416, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
458 AM AKDT Thu Jun 11 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Saturday)...

A broad, upper-level trough extends along the Al-Can border south
over the eastern Gulf of Alaska. The shortwave embedded within
this trough responsible for the showers and thunderstorms across
Southcentral yesterday is still slowly meandering east toward the
Copper River Basin this morning. It is this feature, combining
with a vorticity lobe advecting westward from the Yukon and
elongating over the region, that will be the catalyst, providing
the instability and lift, for another round of showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.

The best chance for showers and widely scattered thunderstorms
will be near this feature, over the Copper River Basin. Given the
weak flow aloft, the bulk of the activity will develop along the
foothills surrounding the periphery of the basin. Any showers and
thunderstorms that do develop will likely be slow moving or remain
nearly stationary, resulting in wetting rains wherever heaver
showers develop.

Farther west, linger low-level moisture and a west-northwesterly
flow aloft may also result in a few scattered and isolated
thunderstorms around the westward facing foothills of the
Talkeetnas and Kenai Mountains.

This feature will be slow to exit, finally lifting northward over
the Alaska Range by Friday evening. Thus, showers and isolated
thunderstorms remain in the forecast for Friday afternoon and
evening. Given the increasing southerly flow, however, the focus
for showers and thunderstorm for Friday will shift slightly to
the northern half of the Copper River Basin.

By late Friday, focus will also shift to Kodiak Island and the
southern Gulf where a strong gale-force front will move over the
area. 1 to 2" of rain, along with east winds approaching 40 mph,
are likely for the eastern half of Kodiak Island through
Saturday. The front then moves quickly to the Southcentral coast
by Saturday morning with steady rain and gusty winds for Prince
William Sound and the eastern Kenai Peninsula. Some rain will also
move across interior Southcentral Saturday morning as the upper-
level wave associated with the surface front moves inland. Any
rain, however, is expected to be light. As this front begins to
break down late Saturday, a second upper-level wave moving from
the North Pacific into the southeastern Gulf will spin up a second
strong surface low and front. This low looks to move toward
Kennedy Entrance by Sunday morning with its front more rain and
wind to the Southcentral coast for Sunday.

- TM

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Saturday afternoon)...

A pattern of persistence over Southwest Alaska and the Bering
will make for a repetitive weather regime through the remainder of
the week across the region. Temperatures in the Southwest
interior continue to be warmer than previously expected, and with
clear skies expected again today and Friday, the warmer trend will
persist. However, along the coast and over the vast majority of
the Bering Sea, ridging continues to promote a very large swath of
low stratus clouds and fog over the area. The lowest ceilings and
fog have been most prominent in the overnight and early morning
hours, lifting to a low stratus in the afternoons. The large bank
of fog is expected to steadily recede westward into Friday
afternoon as a low pressure system approaches the Southern Alaska
Peninsula, promoting offshore easterly winds.

Ample surface heating over the Southwest Alaska interior will
continue to promote afternoon convective activity, with isolated
wet thunderstorms possible this, and Friday afternoon.
Similarly isolated thunderstorms are possible Saturday, however
will likely be consolidated to northern extent of the Lower
Kuskokwim Valley. Drier and hotter conditions over the interior
of Southwest will continue to be a forecast focus today and
tomorrow. This is fringing on ideal fire weather conditions,
however the strength and scale of winds Friday and Saturday
remain a borderline case.

A new low pressure system is poised to approach the southern
Alaska Peninsula by Friday afternoon. This system's rainfall and
movement in the overall air column may bring a reprieve in the fog
over the area, but replace it with continued low stratus and light
rain. Easterly gale-force winds are expected to establish over the
southern side of the Peninsula, including for communities such as
Sand Point, persisting into Saturday morning.

-CL

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...

Showers are expected for Southwest Alaska and the eastern
Aleutians through Tuesday from a Gulf low. An upper level ridge
over the eastern Gulf will remain nearly stationary before moving
eastward by Monday. These two systems are important to note as it
blocks an originating Pacific Low from going into the eastern
Gulf. The combination of the anticyclonic flow aloft from the
ridge and cyclonic flow from the low pressure system will enhance
southerly flow ushering in warm and moist air into the northern
and western Gulf coast. This is expected to bring precipitation to
Southcentral Alaska, the Alaska Peninsula, and Kodiak Island.
There is high confidence that there will be periods of heavy rain
for Eastern Kenai Peninsula and Prince William Sound Saturday
into Sunday. Lingering showers are possible Monday through Tuesday
as the southerly enhanced flow shuts off. A weak upper level low
over Kamchatka will move over the Aleutians Tuesday through
Wednesday, generating showers.

-SS

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period,
although ceilings falling to or slightly below 5,000ft cannot be
ruled out for later today as showers redevelop in the vicinity of
the terminal. Light southerly winds this morning are expected to
become more westerly by around noon today. A brief period of fog
or low stratus is possible both early this morning and again
Friday morning. This is due to an area of low stratus and fog
lingering over Cook Inlet and moving northward toward the terminal
during the overnight hours.

&&