Gale Warning 407, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
523 PM AKDT Sun May 31 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: This
afternoon through Wednesday afternoon)...

Unseasonably wet and windy for Kodiak Island and surrounding
waters. Meanwhile, trending much warmer for most of the Southern
Mainland. The following products are in effect:

* Flood Watch for Kodiak Island, from Monday morning through
  Wednesday morning
* Wind Advisory for Kodiak Island, Monday 6 AM to 11 PM
* Red Flag Warning for Palmer and Butte, Monday 1 PM to 10 PM

Diving into the details... the primary features to watch will be
a ridge currently over the Bering Sea, and a broad low moving up
the North Pacific towards Kodiak Island and the Alaska Peninsula.
This unseasonable low strengthens as it approaches Kodiak Island,
bringing broad areas of gales and even an area of storm force
winds in Shelikof Strait from tonight through Tuesday afternoon.
This low will also bring with it a hefty stream of moisture; the
precipitable water associated with this system and persistent,
onshore easterly flow will lead to rain totals on the order of 2-4
inches for the lower elevations of eastern Kodiak Island. Strong
winds in combination with heavy rain could lead to the possibility
of landslides for this area.

In contrast, Mainland Southcentral will stay mostly dry. The
primary influence of the low approaching Kodiak Island will be
breezy southeasterly gap winds today and tomorrow, as the
approaching low and the coastal ridge induce a tighter pressure
gradient. In addition, eastern Kenai Peninsula and Prince William
Sound will see some light rain tomorrow associated with the low.
Otherwise, a building ridge over the Mainland will be the primary
weather influence, as it leads to much warmer and drier
conditions. Expect temperatures to trend upwards on Tuesday, and
peak Wednesday with much of Southcentral seeing highs in the 70s.
As we head into summer, remember to observe some simple heat
safety tips: stay hydrated, wear loose and light-fitting layers,
and beware of how quickly temperatures can rise in a locked car
(especially for pets, children, or the elderly). Stay safe and
enjoy our upcoming summer-like weather!

-KC

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A Red Flag Warning is in effect for hot, dry, and windy
conditions in the Palmer and Butte areas of Matanuska Valley. With
green-up not quite complete, weather conditions tomorrow
afternoon may be sufficient to pose fire weather concerns.

A ridge building in over Southcentral will bring daytime highs
up to 60 to 65 degrees tomorrow. This ridge, in conjunction with
a low in the Gulf, will produce a pressure gradient that will spur
on gusty southeasterly winds through the Knik River Valley. As
these gusty gap winds will primarily remain in the vicinity of
Palmer and Butte, other parts of Mat Valley will see weaker winds
and, therefore, lower fire weather concerns. With precipitation
from this front remaining limited to the coast, RH will likely dip
below 30%, and potentially lower if gusty winds produce a well-
mixed boundary layer. Though conditions trend warmer and drier for
Tuesday, winds will no longer be a concern as flow becomes weak
under the influence of the ridge.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA, BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3)...

The ridge over the Bering Sea moves eastward through the beginning
of this week bringing the increased likelihood of hot, dry and
windy conditions for the areas of the Southwest Mainland. A front
from a North Pacific low moves into the Gulf of Alaska this
evening into Tuesday bringing high winds and rain to the Alaska
Peninsula and Eastern Aleutians through mid-week.

Isolated thunderstorms and scattered rain showers this afternoon
from along the Kilbuck Mountains to a line from Aniak to Quinhagak
diminish late this evening. Ridging from a high in the Bering Sea
moves eastward over the Mainland through mid-week causing
increased temperatures and drying conditions. Gusty winds will
accompany these conditions too as a front moves through the Gulf
of Alaska and over the Mainland. Temperatures through mid-week
push 70 degrees in Bethel, Lime Village, Crooked Creek and
Sleetmute. These areas will also experience drying conditions and
gusty winds that could lead to fire weather concerns despite the
cooler and wet pattern the area has been experiencing.

Rainfall and small craft to storm warning winds are expected from
this evening through Tuesday evening as a front from the Gulf of
Alaska pushes across portions of the Mainland, Alaska Peninsula
and Eastern ALeutians. Rainfall amounts along the North Pacific
coast range from 1.00 to 2.00 inches with winds gusting to as high
as 55 mph. A special weather statement for Chignik has been
issued highlighting these concerns.

-DJ

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through
Sunday)...

An upper level ridge that is present over Southcentral will begin
to weaken and begin a slight cooling trend. A low in the eastern
Gulf could generate showers on Thursday. GFS has the center of the
low more western which would bring more showers while the rest of
the models have the low more eastern. Otherwise, partly to mostly
sunny skies with warm conditions for not only southcentral, but
also Southwest Alaska through Saturday.

On Friday, a ridge over the Aleutians beings to exit the region
and a North Pacific Low brings showers to the Eastern Aleutians,
Alaska Peninsula, and Kodiak Island Friday night. The low will
remain stationary from a blocking pattern through the rest of the
forecasting period.

-SS

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions persist through Monday. Southeasterly winds
with gusts to 35 mph will continue through around midnight before
quickly diminishing and becoming northerly less than 10 mph
overnight into Monday morning. There may be a brief period of
LLWS early Monday morning as winds aloft around 25 to 30 mph
remain through mid morning before a more pronounced east to
northeasterly mountaintop wind flow develops. Southeasterly winds
and gusts are then expected to return to the terminal by noon
Monday.

&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
National Weather Service ANCHORAGE AK
245 AM AKDT Mon Jun 1 2026

AKZ773-020200-
Chignik and Perryville-
245 AM AKDT Mon Jun 1 2026

...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FOR CHIGNIK AND PERRYVILLE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

A strong North Pacific low will bring an prolonged period of
rainfall to the Alaska Peninsula this morning through Wednesday
morning. Rainfall amounts ranging from 1 to 3 inches are expected
with wind gusts ranging from 45 to 55 mph along the the North
Pacific side of the Alaska Peninsula. The heaviest rain is
expected to fall between Monday afternoon and Tuesday afternoon.
However, moderate rain could linger through Wednesday morning
across Chignik.