Gale Warning 392, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
534 AM AKDT Fri May 22 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Discussion:

The weather will remain unsettled through the weekend as a large
vertically stacked low off the Kuskokwim Delta coast continues to
send several shortwave troughs into Southcentral. Scattered showers
will push through Kodiak Island and up into the western half of
Southcentral today. The northern Gulf coast and Prince William Sound
may see a brief respite or decrease in showers before the next push
arrives later this afternoon. The Turnagain Arm and Knik winds will
taper off by this evening as the coastal ridge weakens. The Copper
Valley winds will remain steadily breezy with some gusts up to 25
mph this afternoon. The Copper Basin will also remain fairly dry
with any activity being diurnally driven and confined to southerly
slopes along the higher elevation, especially if the Basin sees some
breaks in cloud cover. A low will traverse the the southern Gulf
Saturday into Sunday resulting in a more easterly flow regime for
Southcentral and greater precipitation chances for the Copper Basin.
Ridging will begin to build in late Sunday night into Monday with
drier weather and warmer temperatures.

- PP

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA, THE BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3)...

The previously advertised low is centered near Nunivak Island.
This low has stalled out and is causing widespread rain showers
over the Southwest Mainland. The low will slowly weaken over the
weekend, dissipating by Sunday. As this occurs, rain chances will
decrease. Chances for rain showers will remain in the Lower
Kuskokwim Valley on Sunday with the possibility of isolated
lightning during the day. Breezy northerly winds over the
Southwest Mainland will become light by Saturday. Meanwhile, the
Bering will see weak ridging and areas of weak flow set up. This
could allow for fog to start developing over the Bering and
Pribilof Islands over the weekend. A weak low will pass south of
the Aleutians late Friday into Saturday. This could allow for a
brief period of elevated wind and precipitation chances over the
Adak and Atka during that time.

By Sunday, a large North Pacific low will move into the Bering.
This low has the potential to drive high-end gale force winds into
the Aleutians. Widespread moderate to heavy rain is also expected
with this low. The low will move eastward over Monday, pushing
elevated winds and precipitation chances into the Southwest
Mainland.

-JAR

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through
Thursday)...

Minimal changes in the long term forecast as the current pattern
of broad upper level troughing over the Bering Sea and Gulf
continues to remain in place. Several shortwaves rotating around
the upper low across the western Bering, North Pacific, and into
the Gulf will continue to support the active pattern. The upper
longwave trough slowly begins to shift to the east over the
Mainland and Gulf by mid to late next week.

By Monday morning, the biggest focus will continue to be on the
strong system lifting north out of the North Pacific and reaching
the Aleutian Chain. Deterministic models have this low peaking in
strength around the time it reaches the central and eastern
Aleutians, with strong and gusty winds expected across the
Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula Sunday into Tuesday.

This system begins its weakening trend and continues its track
into Bristol Bay early next week before pivoting into the Gulf by
the middle of the week. Gusty southeasterly winds along the front
preceding the low can be expected across Southwest Alaska and the
western Gulf Monday into Tuesday. Precipitation will accompany the
gusty winds as it overspreads much of the southern Mainland, with
heavy precipitation expected along upslope areas of the Kuskokwim
Mountains and along the eastern Kenai Peninsula and western
Prince William Sound.

By mid to late next week, the longwave trough axis shifts east
from the Bering into the Gulf, with low pressure lingering in the
Gulf and unsettled conditions for the southern Mainland through
the remainder of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Conditions are expected to remain predominantly VFR
through the period, though a passing shower could lower ceilings
and/or vis to MVFR. Scattered showers will start to wind down
Friday evening. Southeasterly Turnagain Arm winds will increase
later this morning, remaining breezy through Friday evening.

&&