Gale Warning 38, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
513 PM AKST Wed Jan 7 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Key Messages:

- Cold temperatures have returned to Southcentral in the wake of
  the latest winter storm. Overnight lows Wednesday night into
  Thursday morning will dip down below -20 for much of the
  interior with temperatures in the -30s to -40s for the Copper
  River Basin. The coldest temperatures will be conditional on
  overnight cloud cover. Areas that see persistent cloud cover
  will remain warmer than areas under clear skies. Cannot rule out
  the possibility of some areas across the Copper River Basin
  dropping below -50. Cold weather advisories are in effect for
  much of Southcentral through Thursday.

- A blizzard warning is in effect for the northeast side of Kodiak
  Island, including the city of Kodiak. An inverted trough will
  lift across Kodiak late Thursday into Friday with increasing
  snowfall and gusty northeast winds. Snow amounts will range from
  8 to 16 inches. Whiteout conditions are expected due to blowing
  snow.

- The next Southcentral storm system arrives on Friday. While
  confidence is high that there will be snow, the exact track of a
  surface low lifting northward will determine snow amounts. There
  is a chance, even if a small change, that current forecast snow
  amounts of 1 to 3 inches could balloon to 6 to 12 inches if that
  right conditions align.

Discussion:

There is no rest for the weary while Southcentral Alaska remains
in an active weather pattern. On the heels of Southcentral's
recent winter storm, cold temperatures have now returned and
infiltrated the region. Temperatures will remain cold through
Thursday night, followed by a warm-up on Friday with the arrival
the next winter storm system. An inverted trough is expected to
lift into Kodiak Island late Thursday. Moderate to heavy snow is
forecast along with northeasterly winds gusting from 35 to 45 mph.
This will quickly reduce visibility down to 1/4 mile or less due
to blowing snow and whiteout conditions are anticipated. A
blizzard warning is in effect for the northeast side of Kodiak
Island from 6pm Thursday to 6pm Friday AKST.

The track of the storm system as it continues northward through
the end of the week is posing some forecast challenges for
Southcentral. The EC forecast model and the Canadian to a lesser
extent don't take the low as far west, when compared to the GFS
and NAM. This would allow for Southcentral to hang onto cooler
temperatures and the likelihood of higher snow amounts through the
weekend. While it's too early to say with confidence, there will
be potential for snow and blowing snow along the Western Kenai
Peninsula down into Homer and Kachemak Bay with the northeasterly
winds. Depending on the strength of winds a winter storm watch for
blizzard conditions may be needed over the next 24 hours from
Friday night into Saturday morning for Homer. All models are in
general agreement with a front moving into the Gulf Coast Friday
night, along with precipitation quickly expanding in coverage.
Despite some warming with the southerly flow, confidence is
generally high that all land zones across Southcentral will hold
onto freezing temperatures and a snow precipitation type.

The south and southeast faces of the Chugach and Kenai Mountains
will see the highest precipitation. Meanwhile, somewhere extending
from north to south will likely be a deformation band of moderate
to possibly heavy snow. This band could setup over the Western
Alaska Range and extend down into Cook Inlet but it could also set
up further east across Anchorage. The latter scenario would spell
higher snow amounts anywhere from 6 to 12 inches through the
weekend. Keep an eye on the latest forecast as we try to further
iron out the details.

-BL

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

Key Messages:

* Bitterly cold air temperatures and wind chills expected across
  Southwest Alaska, with this event likely to be colder and more
  widespread than previous cold air outbreaks. Extreme Cold
  Warnings continue for Southwest Alaska.

* A Blizzard Warning remains in effect for the Pribilofs through
  Thursday afternoon. Saint George Island is expected to receive
  the brunt of the snow and winds.

* A Winter Weather Advisory continues for the southern Alaska
  Peninsula, primarily for False Pass, King Cove, and Sand Point.
  Snow and blowing snow expected this afternoon through Thursday
  afternoon.

* A Blizzard Warning is now in effect for Adak and Atka for
  Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon.

* A Special Weather Statement is out for Nikolski, Unalaska, and
  Akutan for rain changing to snow showers Thursday night into
  Friday. Snow showers and gusty winds could lead to periods of
  reduced visibilities.

* Arctic air and gusty winds will bring potential for extreme
  freezing spray along the ice edge.

Temperatures and wind chills have fallen to 25 to 40 below zero
across Southwest Alaska and the Alaska Peninsula as a strong
upper-level trough and surface ridge sit over interior Alaska.
This airmass will remain in place through Friday with temperatures
holding steady or slightly falling through Friday. An Extreme
Cold Warning is in effect from Wednesday evening through Saturday
evening, though there is potential for frigid temperatures and
wind chills to linger for longer. Blowing snow will be likely
along the Kuskokwim Delta and Kuskokwim and Bristol Bay coasts
beginning Friday as northeasterly winds increase.

Farther south and west, an upper-level ridge sits over the
Aleutians and southern Bering Sea. This feature will lift north
then get squeezed and elongate as shortwave and surface front lift
north and the cold upper-level low drops south.

With the northward push of the surface front, snow and gusty
winds move over the Southern Alaska Peninsula this evening. Snow
and blowing snow are expected from Sand Point west to False Pass.
Highest snow amounts are expected for False Pass and King Cove,
with total snow amounts of 6 to 10 inches possible. Cold Bay and
Sand Point may see up to 3 inches of snow accumulation. The
heaviest snow is expected to taper off through Thursday afternoon,
through light snow and gusty winds may continue through Thursday
night, reducing visibilities at times.

This front becomes a bent-back occlusion as colder air wraps back
around the surface low just south of Adak and Atka. As the low
begins to move south over the North Pacific Thursday, this colder
airmass will slide east from Shemya. Temperatures today in the
upper 30s and lower 40s will drop to the lower 30s by Thursday
night, allowing rain to change to snow. A core of very strong
winds, with gusts to 70 mph, will accompany this band of snow,
leading to near-blizzard conditions at times, with 3 to 5 inches
of snow possible, for Adak and Atka.

This push of cold air continues to Nikolski, Unalaska, and Akutan
Thursday night into Friday. The core of steadier precipitation
looks to stay west of these locations. As such, the Blizzard Watch
has been cancelled. However, a transition from rain showers to
snow showers is still expected along with an increase in northerly
winds. The combination of snow showers and wind may result in
periods of reduced visibilities, but widespread blizzard
conditions are not expected. Similar conditions are also likely
across the southern AKPen into Friday and Saturday.

By the weekend, cold temperatures and gusty northerly winds will
remain over almost the entirety of Southwest Alaska, Bering Sea,
and Aleutian Chain.

-TM

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through
Tuesday)...

A very active weather pattern is likely to continue through the
weekend and into early next week. An upper level low over
southwest Alaska will help surface lows in the Gulf of Alaska
spread precipitation (mostly in the form of snow) over
Southcentral Saturday and Sunday. High amplitude ridging over the
Bering Sea will push strong northerly winds through the Aleutians
and Alaska Peninsula during this time. Bands of snow showers are
possible for the Aleutian Chain as northerly flow picks up
moisture from the southern Bering Sea.

Multiple North Pacific lows look to track into the Gulf of Alaska
Monday and Tuesday bring strong winds and moderate to heavy
precipitation to the southern coastline. Mountainous areas will
receive the highest precipitation amounts with these systems, but
early analysis of the Tuesday night storm shows potential for
another widespread snow event for more interior locations of
Southcentral as well.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Lingering north winds around 10 kts should slowly diminish
this evening. VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period.

&&