Gale Warning 376, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
441 AM AKDT Fri May 15 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A few weak easterly shortwaves pass through southern Southcentral
today, keeping light showers in place this morning and early
afternoon across the Mat-Su and Copper River Valley.

Attention shifts to a North Pacific low pushing into the Bering
Sea today. Its associated front moves into the southern Gulf of
Alaska and over Kodiak Island by Saturday morning, bringing
rounds of precipitation and gale force winds. The front will
continue its northward progression through Saturday, with upslope
driven precipitation along the Kenai Mountains and western Prince
William Sound. Gap winds will pick up through Turnagain Arm, Knik
Arm, and through the Copper River Valley, as well as along
ridgetops of the Kenai and Chugach Mountains by Saturday morning.
Further inland and away from the Gulf coast, conditions will
generally trend warmer and dryer. Temperatures climb into the high
50s and perhaps the low 60s.

KM

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.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA , THE BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3)...

Flood warnings caused by ice jams for Napaskiak, Oscarville,
Napakiak, Bethel and Kwethluk remain in effect through 9:00pm
AKDT Friday.

A low, currently north of Atka, becomes stationary in the Bering
Sea east of the Pribilof Islands by this afternoon as a westerly-
wave moves across the Interior today. The low's front moves across
the Aleutians to Interior Southwest Alaska the next 24 hours.

Nighttime microphysics and surface observations show widespread
fog at St. Paul and along the AK Peninsula and Southwest Alaska
coast -- from King Salmon north to Toksook Bay. Visibility ranges
from 1/2 SM to 1 SM from the Southwest Alaska coastline inland to
through parts of the Kuskokwim Delta. This widespread fog lifts
slowly later this morning. Additionally, widespread, steady
precipitation, coupled with wind gusts ranging from 25 to 35 mph,
persist through the day in the Aleutians and the Alaska Peninsula.
QPF amounts range from 0.50 to 1.00" today. Lower QPF amounts are
expected tomorrow in the Alaska Peninsula and Southwest Alaska.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through
Thursday)...

Upper level troughing over the Bering Sea extending into the Gulf
looks to persist through at least early to mid next week,
allowing for the unsettled weather across much of southern Alaska
to continue. By Monday morning, the last of the front from this
weekend's Bering storm continues to affect the Gulf coast with
steady rainfall and mountain snow tapering off and becoming more
showery throughout the day. As this front pushes inland, most
interior locations across Southern Alaska will see an increased
chance for showers through Monday. Multiple successive shortwaves
within the broad cyclonic flow continue to rotate north into
southern Alaska through early next week. Expect elevated winds to
pick back up in the western and northern Gulf, with the eastern
Kenai Peninsula and Prince William Sound set to see another round
of heavy precipitation for Tuesday. Elsewhere, widespread light
precipitation is expected with this system across the rest of the
northern Gulf coast and Southwest Alaska.

Attention shifts farther west by the middle of next week as the
general Bering Sea low pattern continues with the next low
emerging off of Kamchatka. Models differ on the track this low
takes across the Bering, with the GFS favoring a more northerly
track into the southern Bering while the European/Canadian models
favor a track just along and south of the Aleutian Chain.
Regardless of which solution ends up playing out, generally
unsettled conditions are expected for the Aleutian Chain as the
low and its front tracks to the east through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR ceilings will likely prevail through the period, with
ceilings generally at or above 5,000 ft. Vicinity showers are
possible later this morning through early afternoon, with brief
dips in ceilings below 5,000 ft. Turnagain Arm winds will weaken
through the day today, with calm southeasterly winds shifting
south to southwesterly this afternoon. However, Turnagain winds
will reintensify later this evening, with southeasterly gusts
approaching 20-25 kts overnight and into tomorrow morning.

-CW

&&