Gale Warning 372, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
531 AM AKDT Thu May 14 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: This
morning through Saturday afternoon)...

Fairly calm and typical springtime conditions continue to settle
into Southcentral this morning. Southeasterly flow in between a
weak ridge building over the Interior and a broad trough extending
across the Gulf and AKPen is slowly turning more easterly with
time as heights continue to rise near the developing ridge to the
north. Widely scattered showers are drifting across parts of the
region, particularly over the southern Kenai Peninsula. Most of
the area remains covered by varying cloud layers, but much of the
Mat Valley is actually enjoying a break in the clouds for the time
being.

The overall pattern will not change much through the next two
days. Multiple weak shortwaves (or "easterly" waves) will move
around the southern periphery of the ridge of high pressure
building over the northern half of the outlook area through Friday
morning, concentrating the best shower potential across parts of
the Copper Valley and near/around the Talkeetna Mountains. There
is still a fair amount of spread in terms of the timing and
location of heavier shower activity, so be prepared for nuisance
rain showers for just about any point from now through Friday
afternoon.

Attention then shifts to a strong North Pacific low that will
begin to impact sensible conditions across much of Southcentral at
the start of the weekend. By Saturday morning, the low will move
north into the eastern Bering Sea and push a strong front into the
southwestern Gulf. Gusty southeast winds up to Gale Force range
and rain will move past Kodiak Island as the front moves past
sometime on Saturday afternoon. Meanwhile, the approaching low and
front will help build up a strong coastal ridge along the
northern Gulf Coast, supporting a return to strong and gusty gap
winds through all of the typical spots along the Kenai and Chugach
Mountains by Saturday afternoon. Upslope-driven precipitation
will also begin to fill in along the eastern side of the Kenai
Peninsula late in the day as southeasterly flow and increasing
moisture transport begin to tick up out ahead of the front lifting
into the Gulf. Expect this system to continue to bring more
unsettled conditions to the area through the remainder of the
weekend.

-AS

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

A trough over the eastern Bering slides eastward and into the
Gulf on Friday. Isolated showers over Southwest Alaska will come
to an end tonight as high pressure briefly sets in over the
region. The morning has been damp, with fog noted over Bethel and
over Dillingham. Much of the remaining precipitation is occurring
along the Kuskokwim Delta Coast where a passing wave of low
pressure is departing westward and offshore of the Kuskokwim
Coast. A 982 mb North Pacific low is approaching the Aleutians
with its front already overspreading Shemya and soon Adak. This
low will continue to be the main focus for notable weather into
the weekend.

Models take the low and its front eastward along the Aleutian
Chain, with the low experiencing some deepening (~976 mb) as it
stalls over Unalaska late Friday. Widespread showers will
accompany the low's movement over the Aleutians and southern
Bering, with the an occluded front spreading additional showers
across the Alaska Peninsula into Friday night. While the low lifts
northward on Saturday and rapidly weakens, gusty winds will
follow the front's eastward progression with gusts ranging from 35
to 45 knots on Friday. Gusty southeasterly winds then spread into
Southwest Alaska on Saturday. As far precipitation is concerned,
Southwest Alaska will remain dry on Friday; however, the front
will eventually make landfall with the Southwest coast Saturday
morning with at least scattered showers expected from Bristol Bay
up into the YK Delta.

-BL

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...

Upper level troughing over the Bering Sea extending into the Gulf
looks to persist through at least early to mid next week,
allowing for the unsettled weather across much of southern Alaska
to continue. By Sunday morning, models remain in good agreement on
a front lifting north and stalling in the northern Gulf. This
front is expected to bring moderate to potentially heavy
precipitation along the eastern Kenai Peninsula and Prince William
Sound, while strong east to southeasterly winds in the Gulf begin
to diminish through Sunday. Chances for showers across inland
locations for Southcentral and Southwest Alaska increase heading
into next week as successive shortwaves within the broad cyclonic
flow behind the front rotate north into southern Alaska.

Meanwhile, the parent low in the Bering begins to merge with the
next incoming Kamchatka low which strengthens and consolidates
just to the south of the Aleutian Chain by early next week,
bringing another round of winds and rain to the AKPen and
Southwest Alaska. Model agreement begins to wane heading into the
middle of next week, although ensemble means favor this low taking
a more northerly track into the Bering as another front and plume
of moisture moves east into the Gulf.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions will likely prevail through the period,
with ceilings generally above 5,000 ft today. Shower activity
should be limited over Anchorage, with only a slight chance for a
light shower or two drifting over the terminal. Similar to
yesterday, Turnagain Arm winds will reintensify later this
afternoon, bringing southeasterly winds with gusts approaching 25
kts into the evening hours, before diminishing overnight. A
marine stratus later could push into Anchorage overnight, which
would cause ceilings to fall to below 5,000 ft into tomorrow
morning.

-CW

&&