Gale Warning 347, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
519 AM AKDT Fri May 1 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Discussion:

A series of shortwave troughs will continue to impact the Gulf of
Alaska and portions of Southcentral through early next week. These
systems will have a good fetch of tropical moisture, as noted on
satellite imagery this morning, and will bring moderate to heavy
rainfall for lower elevations of the eastern Kenai Peninsula, Prince
William Sound, and the northern Gulf Coast with snow at higher
elevations. Radar reflectivity indicates that this mornings push of
moisture has passed Middleton Island and will soon spread into
Prince William Sound and Cordova within a few hours. Rainfall
estimates over the past 24 hrs show modest accumulations with Kodiak
City receiving 1.79 inches, Seward receiving 0.96 inches, and
Whittier receiving 1.53 inches.

Water vapor imagery shows the next push of moisture quickly moving
into the Southern Gulf from the North Pacific this morning. This
push will enhance precipitation along the southern/eastern Kenai and
northern Gulf Coast later this afternoon and evening. The strong
southerly flow will also bring warmer temperatures north with snow
levels rising into the 1500-2300 ft range by late tonight. Expect
temperatures to remain pretty similar to the yesterday's
temperatures, and possibly a degree or two warmer for some
locations.

Aside from the moderate to heavy rain along the coast, snow is
likely at elevations above 1500-2500 ft, especially through Thompson
Pass Friday into Saturday and even down to the town of Valdez Friday
evening into Saturday morning; however, models have been
initializing surface and boundary layer temperatures much colder
that current conditions indicate hinting that precipitation could be
a rain/snow mix or all rain in Valdez. For Thompson Pass, heavy wet
snow in combination with gusty southeasterly winds could
significantly reduce visibility at times, especially Friday evening
through early Saturday morning when the heaviest snow looks to fall.
A Special Weather Statement remains in effect for Thompson Pass to
bring awareness to the heavy wet snow and low visibility potential.

Saturday will see a lull in widespread precipitation and conditions
turn more showery as the shortwave lifts inland. This lull won't
last long for the Gulf coast as another shortwave rides up the
western periphery of the ridge in place over the eastern Gulf. While
models are consistent with the feature working northward late
Saturday into Sunday, they significantly differ on the exact track
this plume of moisture and subsequent precipitation will take. The
NAM and to some extent the GFS prefer a more easterly track with the
bulk of the rainfall pushing towards Yakutat. The ECMWF and GEM
prefer a more western track with the eastern Kenai and Prince
William Sound getting the bulk of precipitation. For now, have
trended the forecast between these solutions and will continue to
modify the forecast as the solutions come into better agreement.

- PP

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

A 985 mb low just north of the Eastern Aleutians continues
weakening as it tracks northeastward until it moves over Southwest
Alaska late this afternoon. Multiple associated shortwaves track
over Southwest Alaska bringing continued precipitation today
through early Saturday morning before tapering off. The primary
precipitation type will be rain as temperatures are going to
remain above freezing, however, higher elevations are likely to
see all snow or a rain/snow mix.

Kamishak gap winds have ramped up and peaked overnight, gusty
winds will continue this morning and diminish rapidly through the
day today.

By Sunday morning, a Kamchatka low sends a weakening gale force
front to the Western Aleutians, bringing rainy and windy
conditions.

KM

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through
Thursday)...

Upper level high pressure over the eastern Gulf and low pressure
over the eastern Bering Sea will keep Southcentral Alaska in an
active storm track at the start of the long term forecast period.
Confidence is growing that a low pressure system will move north
into the Gulf of Alaska and spread precipitation across much of of
the state Monday and Tuesday. Moisture may linger into Wednesday
for Southcentral and Southwest while high pressure builds in the
eastern Gulf. Guidance begins to struggle by Wednesday evening,
but it looks likely an Aleutian low will send a front across the
Aleutian Chain Wednesday and Thursday. There are chances for some
drying over Southcentral on Thursday, but an overall unsettled
weather pattern will persist.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions to persist through the TAF period. Winds
aloft will remain elevated out of the southeast while winds at the
surface become light and northerly. Expect low-level wind shear
this morning through early this afternoon. Southeasterly Turnagain
Arm winds at the surface return this afternoon with gusts to 25
to 30 knots.

&&

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