Gale Warning 315, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
459 PM AKDT Sun Apr 19 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Tonight through Wednesday afternoon)...

Conditions gradually improve from tonight into tomorrow morning as
a low and front progress eastwards and out of Southcentral. While
breezy conditions will persist, precipitation will become showery
and remain mostly limited to higher elevations for Monday and the
first half of Tuesday. From the latter half of Tuesday into
Wednesday, incoming shortwaves and a robust atmospheric river will
bring a return to wet and windy conditions. Here are the hazards
we're monitoring:

* Winter Weather Advisory in Northern Copper Valley and from about
  Talkeetna north in Susitna Valley: Snow through Monday
  afternoon.

* High Surf Advisory in Kachemak Bay: The combination of high tide
  and southwest winds could lead to breaking waves of 4-8 ft, with
  the potential to move debris and cause minor erosion.

* Flood Advisory due to an ice jam along Anchor River.

* Looking ahead to Wednesday's atmospheric river, there could be a
  possibility of flooding depending on the intensity of
  precipitation and potential snowmelt.

-KC

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Wednesday morning)...

A 983 mb low in the western Bering continues to weaken tonight.
This low is promoting continual mostly light snowfall across
Southwest Alaska. Steady snow this morning across the Kuskokwim
Valley and along the Western Alaska Range has become more showery
as cold air moved in from the southwest off of the Bering Sea.
Some areas near Bethel and Dillingham have seen precipitation
switch over to a light snow/rain mix, but will likely switch back
to snowfall tonight as temperatures decline. Off and on rain/snow
shower mix will continue across mainland Southwest through
Monday. Most snow accumulation will occur along the Western
Alaska Range due to westerly upslope flow enhancement with little
additional accumulation elsewhere.

The low in the Bering will be replaced steadily with upper-level
energy approaching from the west, and surface lows approaching
from the south. Between now and Tuesday, an elongated trough axis
will remain stretched from the Southwest coastline to near Adak,
promoting ongoing unsettled weather and light precipitation across
the region.

By Tuesday, a more organized and widespread push of moisture and
stronger winds lifts up from the North Pacific and impacts
Adak/Atka, Nikolski/Unalaska/Akutan, and the Pribilof Islands with
moderate to heavy rain. The moderate to heavy precipitation makes
it to mainland Southwest Alaska by late Tuesday afternoon to
early Tuesday evening. Precipitation may start as a period of snow
along the Kuskokwim Delta/Kuskokwim Delta Coast Tuesday afternoon
before changing to rain/snow mix and eventually rain through
Tuesday night. The tropical moisture tap shifts eastward from
Unalaska/Nikolski/Akutan to over the Alaska Peninsula Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning. Moderate to heavy rain at times is
looking likely from False Pass eastward to Chignik Tuesday night
into Wednesday morning. However, this moisture axis does not look
to hang around long as it continues eastward to Kodiak Island by
late Wednesday morning. Stay tuned for further forecast updates
regarding the development of the next unseasonably strong Bering
low for this upcoming workweek.

-CL/DAN

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through
Sunday)...

Unsettled conditions will likely persist across much of Alaska
through the upcoming week. A low over the southern Bering Sea will
move toward Nunivak Island by Thursday morning. South to
southwesterly flow with gusts up to 40 mph will move across
Kuskokwim Bay/Delta area. Concerns for coastal impacts is low due
to shorefast ice and some added protection from the expansive ice
floe over the eastern Bering Sea.

The accompanied front from the Bering low will move into the
western Gulf of Alaska, drawing with it a relatively deeper surge
of moisture. Coastal areas in the northern Gulf and Kodiak Island
and higher elevations of the Alaska Range will likely see the most
precipitation. Away from the coast, expect several days of mixed
precipitation to continue, including rain at lower elevations and
snow at higher elevations. Southeasterly flow will allow some
downsloping to the west of the Chugach and Kenai Mountains.

Model agreement decreases significantly late in the week, though
some semblance of a low continues to place a low in the southern
Bering Sea with southerly flow persisting into Southcentral. It is
probable that our overall pattern will not deviate much from what
we are already seeing, however, the details should become clear
with the timing of these key wind and precipitation features as we
approach the mid to late week timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Gusty southeast winds will continue through this
afternoon, with peak gusts to around 35 to 40 kts possible until
around midnight. VFR conditions will likely prevail as
southeasterly flow over the Chugach mountains partially downslopes
and evaporates some of the low level moisture; however, expect a
period of steady rainfall and MVFR ceilings late this afternoon
through early this evening as winds begin to shift more southerly.
Gusty winds continue overnight through Monday afternoon, but
should begin to gradually decrease by late Monday.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
122 AM AKDT Mon Apr 20 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0308 PM     Snow             5 E Valdez              61.11N 146.22W
04/19/2026  M0.8 Inch        Chugach            AK   CO-OP Observer

&&

AS