Gale Warning 312, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
429 PM AKDT Sat Apr 18 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Tonight through Tuesday afternoon)...

The forecast looks fairly on track, with sun and scattered
showers today becoming increasingly stormy by tomorrow. Many areas
will see gusty winds and precipitation tomorrow as a front tracks
west to east across Southcentral Alaska. Though the front and its
weak surface low depart late Sunday into Monday morning, a steady
parade of weak upper level shortwaves will maintain showery
conditions in Southcentral through Tuesday afternoon, especially
along area mountains. No watches, warnings, and advisories are in
effect, but prepare for snow if you'll be traveling through area
mountain passes Sunday morning.

Diving into the details... with yesterday's low continuing to exit
eastward, skies are gradually clearing over Southcentral. Some
stratus continues to linger in parts of Kenai Peninsula,
Anchorage, and the Mat-Su, but this morning's low stratus and fog
has largely burned off. Where daytime heating has been plentiful,
satellite is showing cumulus development, with scattered showers
moving through Copper River Valley. Overall, a fairly pleasant
springtime Saturday for much of Southcentral.

By early tomorrow morning, conditions become much windier and
wetter as a front moves into Southcentral and a weak surface low
develops in the Gulf. The general picture remains on track: gusty
southeasterly winds and widespread precipitation, with snow at
higher elevations and mostly rain at lower elevations. This
morning's stratus has introduced a bit of uncertainty into the
precipitation type forecast, however. The stubborn stratus deck
that had been over Kenai Peninsula, Anchorage, and Mat-Su has
limited some daytime heating, so temperatures may trend a little
lower tonight, bringing the potential for precipitation early
tomorrow morning to lean more a snow/rain mix than rain. Still,
depending on how quickly this stratus thins out and with gusty
southeasterly winds kicking in tonight, there may still be enough
warming for precipitation to fall completely as rain. Overall,
snow accumulations at lower elevations are still expected to be
minimal.

For Monday and Tuesday, expect cloudy conditions with showers
mainly along the mountains as zonal flow sets in, and various weak
upper level shortwaves transit the area. A weak surface low may
develop near Prince William Sound Monday night, which will lead to
enhanced precipitation for the Valdez and Cordova areas. However,
this system will be weak and quick-moving, so impacts will be
limited.

-KC

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

A 960 mb low occupies the western Bering, while its front extends
across Southwest Alaska and the Alaska Peninsula (AKPen) this
afternoon. Mixed precipitation will continue through Sunday for
the Bering Sea, AKPen, and Southwest mainland as the front
continues rotating around the western and southern sides of the
system. The low will slowly track north of the Pribilofs, by
Sunday afternoon and continue eastward across the Kusko Delta by
Monday afternoon. Rain is expected for the Aleutian Islands and
Alaska Peninsula with a brief period of snow before changing to
rain for the Pribilofs and all snow for the interior mainland.

Not far behind is a second low that lifts into the southern
Bering Sunday night into Monday morning. Its position will likely
remain in the vicinity of Adak through Tuesday. Precipitation from
this second system may initially be a mix of rain and snow, but
trend toward all rain while the front's leading edge, trailing a
long moisture fetch from the North Pacific, is pushed into the
Bering Sea on Tuesday morning. Widespread gales are expected
across the AKPen and open water of the Bering Sea.

ER

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through
Saturday)...

A transition toward cooler and more unsettled conditions is
expected across much of Alaska through the upcoming week. A
pattern dropping south from the north will usher in colder air
along with periodic snow showers, particularly across the interior
and the Alaska Range.

By early to mid next week, attention shifts to Southcentral and
Southeast Alaska as a developing system draws in a deeper surge of
moisture. This will likely bring several days of mixed
precipitation, including rain at lower elevations and snow at
higher elevations. The heaviest snowfall appears most likely
across the Alaska Range and through higher elevation passes,
accompanied by increasing winds.

A strong North Pacific low continues to be monitored. While
current guidance keeps this system south of the state, any
northward shift toward the Gulf of Alaska could introduce another
round of impactful weather late next week.

LM

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR ceilings and light south to southwest winds linger
through this afternoon. By about 09Z tonight, winds will turn
southeasterly out of Turnagain Arm and gradually increase, peaking
as high as 30-40 kt on Sunday afternoon.

These southeasterly winds will likely keep temperatures above
freezing, so when precipitation begins around 12Z, it should fall
as rain. There is a small chance that precipitation will begin as
a snow/rain mix, but any snow accumulations should be minimal.
Ceilings will drop to MVFR with the onset of precipitation and dip
as low as IFR as precipitation continues through late Sunday
afternoon.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
1053 PM AKDT Sat Apr 18 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     Ice Jam          1 W Anchor Point        59.77N 151.84W
04/18/2026                   Kenai Peninsula    AK   Public

            Ice jam formed on Anchor River between 3 and
            4 pm AKDT. Water is at the edge of the bike
            path near the Old Sterling Highway bridge.

&&

AS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
1103 PM AKDT Sat Apr 18 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1045 AM     Snow             5 E Valdez              61.11N 146.22W
04/18/2026  M1.5 Inch        Chugach            AK   CO-OP Observer

            Snow water equivalent of 0.67 inches.

&&

AS