Gale Warning 307, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
525 AM AKDT Fri Apr 17 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Today through Sunday night)...

Expect unsettled weather through tonight with a brief break
during the day Saturday. After that, another round of stormy
weather begins Saturday evening through Sunday morning with the
next weather system moving into the area. The biggest concern
remains the long duration of light snow from Paxson up to Isabel
Pass and also for the Thompson Pass area. Expect overall
accumulations on the order of 6-10 inches over the next 3 days in
these areas.

There is a significant upper level trough over the west and
southwest portions of the state this morning with due south flow
ahead of this trough bringing in moisture from the Pacific into
Southcentral. With numerous shortwaves embedded in the upper level
flow and a lack of strong surface features to help organize
things, we're getting what amounts to a lower impact forecast
through Friday night that it might look at first glance at the
satellite imagery.While many areas will see some precipitation
through Friday night, with greatest precipitation amounts will be
along the north Gulf coast including Prince William Sound. The
Cook Inlet corridor (Kenai Peninsula up to Anchorage) and Mat-Su
will see a lower precipitation overall under this more showery
regime.

Precipitation type will also be tricky and will be greatly
dependent on elevation and time of day. Therefore, expect a
rain/snow mix, leaning more snow during the cooler parts of the
day and leaning more rain in the afternoon/evening. As we've seen
with recent events, lower elevations will be unlikely to
accumulate much snow given these warmer temperatures.

As the upper low exits the area on Saturday and a ridge moves in,
there will be a brief break of drier weather. However, by late
Saturday into Sunday, a more complex and active pattern sets up as
a strong Bering Sea low begins to interact with an upper low
dipping south from northern Alaska. This system will be something
to keep an eye on due to the much stronger moisture transport
than the current system, and the potential for periods of
moderate to heavy precipitation.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

Currently, low stratus and fog with pockets of mixed
precipitation are over the Southwest Mainland including the
Alaska Peninsula. An upper trough over the mainland will move
eastward, allowing precipitation to subside this afternoon due to
ridging. However, pockets of low stratus and fog may persist
before the next weather event reaches the mainland on Saturday.
Meanwhile, an unseasonably strong North Pacific low is pushing
into the Bering over the Shemya and Adak regions. A shift in the
track of the low to the west will make Shemya receive the
strongest winds, which are expected to gust up to 70 mph for a
short period Friday evening. Storm force winds are expected from
the Rat islands to the Shemya waters. The Adak and Atka region
will still see gusty winds, but not to the same caliber as
Shemya. Precipitation may start as mixed before transitioning to
all rain as warm air advection moves in. The low will slowly move
east over the weekend. The leading front will bring a potential
for blowing snow across the Aleutian Chain Saturday through early
Sunday, and the Pribilof Islands Saturday morning before
temperatures warm. These blowing snow conditions will continue
along the front, reaching the coastal portion of the Kuskokwim
Delta Saturday afternoon as the front pushes inland.

Despite the warm air advection in front of the low, cold air will
wrap around the back of the low, allowing for higher instability
and showery precipitation to form over the Bering as the low moves
east. Looking ahead to next week, an Arctic trough dips into
Southwest Alaska, potentially dropping low temperatures into the
teens and single digits across the Southwest Mainland beginning
Monday night. These temperatures combined with lingering
precipitation from the strong low means widespread snowfall is
possible Monday onward.

AB/JAR

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through Thursday)...

The upcoming week features a transition to cooler temperatures
and unsettled weather across much of the State. A stable weather
pattern descending from the north will bring a week of chillier
air and intermittent snow showers to the interior and the Alaskan
Range. Simultaneously, a weakening but still potent storm in the
southern Bering Sea continues to pose a risk to mariners while
driving gusty winds and steady precipitation across the Aleutians,
the Alaskan Peninsula dn Southwest Alaska.

By early to mid-next week, focus shifts to Southcentral and
Southeast regions as a developing storm pulls a deep plume of
moisture into the area. This setup is expected to produce several
days of moderate to heavy rain and snow with particularly heavy
snow accumulation in the Alaska Range alongside high winds through
mountain passes. We are also monitoring a very strong North
Pacific low. While it currently expected to pass south of the
state, there is a possibility it could turn towards the Gulf of
Alaska, potentially brining another round of significant weather
late next week.

-DD

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Scattered light rain/snow showers will remain in the
vicinity of the area through tomorrow morning. The heaviest
precip will fall through mid-morning today, which could reduce
visibilities at times over the terminal. Otherwise, MVFR to VFR
conditions are expected to persist as ceilings waver between
3000-5000 ft. Northerly winds of 5 kts turn to southerly by mid-
afternoon.

PA

&&