Gale Warning 304, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
655 PM AKDT Thu Apr 16 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Tonight through Sunday afternoon)...

Generally expect unsettled weather through Friday night--with a
brief break during the day Saturday--before another round of
stormy weather begins Saturday evening through Sunday morning. The
primary hazard continues to be a long duration of light snow from
Paxson up to Isabel Pass and for the Thompson Pass area, with
overall accumulations on the order of 6-10 inches over the next 3
days.

Diving into the details... continued unsettled weather persists as
an upper low gradually pivots across Southern Alaska. With an
array of shortwaves embedded in the upper level flow and a lack of
strong surface features to help organize things, we're getting
what amounts to be a lower impact but also lower confidence
forecast through Friday night. Many areas will see some
precipitation through Friday night, with greatest precipitation
amounts along the north Gulf coast including Prince William Sound.
While the Cook Inlet corridor (Kenai Peninsula up to Anchorage)
and Mat-Su will see lower precipitation overall, timing and exact
amounts are difficult to accurately predict under this more
showery regime. Precipitation type will also be tricky with our
growing daylight and overnight lows right around freezing;
generally expect a rain/snow mix, leaning more snow during the
cooler parts of the day and leaning more rain in the
afternoon/evening. As we've seen with recent events, lower
elevations will be unlikely to accumulate much snow given these
warmer temperatures.

As the upper low exits the area on Saturday and a ridge moves in,
there will be a brief break of drier weather. Then by late
Saturday into Sunday, a more complex and active pattern sets up as
a Bering Sea low begins to interact with an upper low dipping
south from northern Alaska. Models are handling this interaction
differently, which is leading to significant spread in model
solutions, both between the different deterministic models and
even between successive model runs. This system will be something
to keep an eye on due to the good moisture transport associated
with it, and the potential for periods of moderate to heavy
precipitation. Still, precipitation amounts and timing will be
difficult to ascertain until there is improved synoptic agreement.
Stay tuned.

-KC

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

Scattered showers continue across the eastern Bering and Southwest
through Friday afternoon, tapering off from west to east as the
existing shortwaves exit eastward. Diurnal swings in temperature
are allowing for snow at night and a mix of rain/snow or rain
during the day. Wind speeds will remain lighter for inland areas
and mostly sub-small craft for the Bering except for the western
Aleutians. This pattern will persist through late Friday morning
over the mainland.

To the west, changes arise Friday when an unseasonably strong low
moves into the Bering from the North Pacific. Storm force winds
and moderate to heavy precipitation are expected for the Adak
region as a sting jet moves over the area. Precipitation may
start as mixed before transitioning to all rain as warm air
advection moves in. The low will slowly move east over the
weekend. The leading front will bring a potential for blowing
snow across the Aleutian Chain Saturday through early Sunday, and
the Pribilof Islands for a few hours early Saturday morning before
temperatures warm. These blowing snow conditions will continue
along the front, reaching the coastal portion of the Kuskokwim
Delta Saturday afternoon as the front pushes inland. Despite the
warm air advection in front of the low, cold air will wrap around
the back of the low, allowing for higher instability and showery
precipitation to form over the Bering as the low moves east.
Looking ahead to next week, an Arctic trough dips into Southwest
Alaska, potentially dropping low temperatures into the teens and
single digits across the Southwest Mainland beginning Monday
night. These temperatures combined with lingering precipitation
from the strong low means widespread snowfall is possible over the
same period.

AB/JAR

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through Thursday)...

The upcoming week features a transition to cooler temperatures
and unsettled weather across much of the State. A stable weather
pattern descending from the north will bring a week of chillier
air and intermittent snow showers to the interior and the Alaskan
Range. Simultaneously, a weakening but still potent storm in the
southern Bering Sea continues to pose a risk to mariners while
driving gusty winds and steady precipitation across the Aleutians,
the Alaskan Peninsula dn Southwest Alaska.

By early to mid-next week, focus shifts to Southcentral and
Southeast regions as a developing storm pulls a deep plume of
moisture into the area. This setup is expected to produce several
days of moderate to heavy rain and snow with particularly heavy
snow accumulation in the Alaska Range alongside high winds through
mountain passes. We are also monitoring a very strong North
Pacific low. While it currently expected to pass south of the
state, there is a possibility it could turn towards the Gulf of
Alaska, potentially brining another round of significant weather
late next week.

-DD

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Scattered light rain/snow showers will continue through
through Friday with periodic drops in visibility as showers move
over the terminal. Ceilings of 5-6 kft may rise to 7-9 kft before
ceilings start to decrease into the MVFR to IFR range by Friday
morning and precipitation changes back to light snow. Winds will
generally remain out of the north at 5-10 kts, but could see a
switch to light southeasterly winds at times.

&&