Gale Warning 284, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
527 AM AKDT Sun Apr 5 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Tuesday)...

A negatively-tilted upper trough extends from Southwest Alaska
into the western Gulf this morning, with a weakening surface low
continuing to sit near the base of the trough east of Kodiak
Island. North and east of the trough axis, bands of convective
snow showers are continuing to affect much of the Gulf Coast and
Prince William Sound region, including near Whittier, Seward and
Homer. While most of this shower activity has stayed away from
inland areas due to drier air in place away from the immediate
coast, snow showers have occasionally worked farther inland
overnight in a couple places. A subtle shortwave trough moving
into the Susitna Valley has ushered a few snow showers into the
Mat Valley early this morning, while Anchorage has mostly just
seen virga overnight due to the dry air in place close to ground
level.

Looking ahead, the showery and unsettled pattern we've been in
for the past couple days will finally break tonight into Monday as
the trough axis over the Gulf lifts north towards the Copper
Basin. Areas of light snow could linger ahead of the trough across
parts of the Anchorage Hillside and eastern Mat Valley before the
trough lifts north late tonight into Monday morning. Otherwise,
expect generally dry conditions to return in between systems from
Monday into Monday night as a transient upper ridge moves
overhead. A lingering coastal trough coupled with strong
westerlies developing aloft will support offshore gap winds
picking up in the usual spots along the Gulf coast from late
tonight into Monday afternoon.

From late Monday into Tuesday, attention turns to the next system
expected to impact much of the forecast area early this week. A
large low moving over the Bering Sea will send a front across
Southcentral from southwest to northeast, first reaching Kodiak
late on Monday night. Temperatures will likely be warm enough for
precipitation to start as rain across most of Kodiak Island as the
front approaches. Farther north, the air mass in place has a much
better chance to support snow on the leading edge of precipitation
filling in ahead of the front as it continues to lift north
towards the Kenai Peninsula and southern Cook Inlet on Tuesday
morning. However, expect some issues with snow changing over to
rain during the afternoon hours as temperatures warm into the 30s
to low 40s. In addition, expect more of an upslope/downslope
signature to pick up in precipitation as southeasterly flow
increases out ahead of the frontal boundary. Much of the northern
Susitna Valley, eastern Kenai Peninsula and Prince William Sound
will continue to see steady rain and snow through Tuesday evening,
while much of the Mat Valley, Anchorage and interior Copper Basin
dry back out by Tuesday afternoon.

-AS

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Tuesday)...

Generally stormy weather expected for the Bering Sea, Aleutian
Islands, and Southwest Alaska through early next week as several
upper lows and troughs move through the area. Forecast confidence
is a bit lower after Monday afternoon, as there is uncertainty
regarding how these various upper level features will interact
with each other. While confidence remains lower, here are the
potential hazards we're monitoring:

* Blowing snow for Kuskokwim Delta coast and Western Capes through
  Monday, with visibilities to 1 mile or less possible.
* Moderate snow (on the order of about 6 inches total) for
  northern Bristol Bay coast/Dillingham from Monday afternoon
  through Tuesday afternoon.

Diving into the details... the current upper level pattern
features an elongated upper level low centered over Kuskokwim
Delta, ridging over the Aleutian Islands, and an upper low
approaching Adak and Atka from the west. Through this afternoon,
expect isolated to scattered snow showers around Kuskokwim Delta
due to the influence of the upper low overhead. Showers will taper
off through the afternoon as the low in the Bering Sea moves in.

The low currently in the Bering Sea will set up to be one of the
main players for this region's weather over the coming days. Its
front will gradually move east, bringing rain and snow to the
Aleutian Islands through today, and the Alaska Peninsula/Southwest
Alaska by tomorrow. Depending on the temperature, there may be
periods of blowing snow. The Pribilof Islands will likely see a
period of blowing snow with minor visibility reductions this
morning, with more significant visibility reductions possible for
the Kuskokwim Delta coast and Western Capes tomorrow. Expect gusty
winds as well, especially through southeast oriented terrain gaps
like through Cold Bay.

This low and its front will merge with another low moving in from
the west, forming a broad complex. Uncertainty regarding the
various mesolows and surface troughs comprising this complex is
leading to uncertainty with the finer details of the forecast,
especially for the Alaska Peninsula and Southwest Alaska, so stay
tuned. Regardless, most areas will see a wet weekend and/or a wet
start to the workweek.

-KC

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through
Saturday)...

A more active, progressive pattern looks likely by mid-week with
periods of increased cloud cover and chances for precipitation
across the Aleutians and much of the southern Mainland. Models are
in fair agreement through the first half of the period as an
upper level trough and accompanying surface low push precipitation
east across the state Wednesday and Thursday. Out west, a
Kamchatka low sends a front across the Aleutian Chain Thursday and
Friday, but the front weakens before reaching Alaska's west
coast. Models begin to diverge late in the week with increasing
uncertainty regarding the timing and placement of upper level
shortwaves interacting over the Bering Sea and North Pacific. A
slight warming trend and seasonable temperatures are expected to
continue through the long-term across both Southwest and
Southcentral Alaska.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will most likely prevail
for most of the TAF period. Due to mid level dry air in place,
models have continued to back off on precipitation chances, but an
isolated rain or snow shower cannot be ruled out. Ceilings are
also expected to gradually decrease through the TAF period,
solidly dropping below 5000' by 12z Monday or so.

&&