Gale Warning 265, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
504 AM AKDT Wed Mar 18 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
(Days 1 through 3)...

A complex low with multiple centers remains in the Gulf of Alaska
with a closed upper low in the far southern Gulf. The deepest of
the surface lows is bringing strong winds and moderate snow over
the Gulf waters, while also keeping gusty gap winds in place
through Whittier, Seward, and Thompson Pass. Expect these strong
winds to remain in place today as the low continues to pinwheel
around Middleton Island.

Late this afternoon a leading shortwave of a deep upper level
trough and Arctic airmass will move over Kodiak Island and into
the Gulf. The digging of the trough and development/phasing of a
lee-side low with the existing surface low will pull the existing
low back west towards the Sound. This should allow some light
snow to spread over the Prince William Sound communities starting
tonight, with light snow also expected for the southern Mat-Su
Valleys, Anchorage and Cook Inlet communities. Dry northerly winds
will limit accumulations, but a trace to and inch or two is
possible for these inland areas from late tonight into Thursday.

For Friday the upper level through will broaden significantly,
encompassing the majority of the state, Gulf and portions of the
north Pacific. From here on the forecast for the Gulf and coastal
communities gets noisy, with multiple surface lows developing and
pivoting around the upper low center south of Kodiak. In summary,
the forecast for the next 4 days will yield continued cold
temperatures, gusty winds through all of the mountain passes and
gaps, and periods of light snow, which will be mainly around the
Sound.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

The pattern remains the same as it has been, with ridging in the
western Bering and troughing over southwest Alaska. Northerly gap
winds up to gale force in strength will continue to blow through
gaps and passes in the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula
areas through Friday due to cold air advection and troughing from
the north. Heavy freezing spray remains in marine areas wherever
winds are gusty in the aforementioned regions. An upper level
Arctic low drop from the north today will bring slight potential
for light snowfall in the Kuskokwim Delta and the East Bering.
Colder air will dive into the Southwest Mainland through Friday
due to the influence of the Arctic low. Low temperatures will once
again plummet into the negative teens for much of the mainland
and potentially the negative 20s for the Kuskokwim Delta and Lower
Kuskokwim Valley. Gusty winds will allow for very cold wind
chills near -40F in the Kuskokwim regions. As such, a Cold Weather
Advisory has been issued for these areas. By Thursday afternoon,
a period of snow showers is likely from Unimak Island to Nikolski.
These showers coinciding with a push of gusty northerly winds may
promote blowing snow conditions for this latter half of the work
week. Reductions in visibility from this blowing snow potential
will depend on local snowfall rates and wind speeds; We will
continue to monitor this system so stay tuned for updates.

-JAR/CL

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through
Tuesday)...

Generally, the central Aleutians, the Pribilofs and the Bering
Sea will be under a ridge of high pressure for much of the long
term. Across the far west, rain/snow and winds up to 40 mph from
frontal passages will move across the western Aleutians. Across
Southwest Mainland, the eastern Bering Sea and the Alaska
Peninsula, expect northerly flow to persist with shortwaves
troughs that could bring periods of light snow showers. These
showers will be more probable near and off the ice edge in the
Bering, higher elevations, and near coastlines. Models differ with
the east/west extent of this flow regime and it is possible
(though low probability) that showers could move as far west as
the Pribilof Islands at times this weekend and the eastern
Aleutians near Unalaska/Nikolski. Winds through the eastern Bering
Sea/Bristol Bay and through the terrain gaps along the Alaska
Peninsula will likely continue to remain gusty with the cold air
advecting across the area. Friday morning appears to be coldest
day over this week for Southwest Alaska/eastern Bering and
temperatures will likely linger into Saturday.

Out east towards Mainland Southcentral, low pressure will remain
in the Gulf of Alaska through the long-term period. This will
maintain cold, dry, northerly flow with enhanced gap winds through
the favored terrain and passes. Any snowfall should remain light
and confined primarily to along the coast and coastal mountain
ranges. Temperatures may start to moderate a little bit this
weekend for Southcentral, but will still be below normal for this
time of year.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and north winds on Wendesday give way to
MVFR conditions and light snow early Thursday. A surface low near
Prince William Sound will promote increasing clouds and light snow
early Thursday morning. Snow chances then diminish by midday
Thursday with MVFR ceilings and vicinity snow over the mountains.

BL

&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
National Weather Service ANCHORAGE AK
1212 PM AKDT Wed Mar 18 2026

AKZ772-191400-
Kodiak Island Southwest-
Including the cities of Old Harbor, Akhiok, Karluk,
and Larsen Bay
1212 PM AKDT Wed Mar 18 2026

...RESUSPENDED ASH FROM KATMAI-NOVARUPTA EXPECTED OVER SOUTHWEST
KODIAK ISLAND THROUGH THURSDAY...

Strong northwesterly winds are currently resuspending ash from
the 1912 Katmai-Novarupta eruption across Southwest Kodiak Island,
causing haze and trace amounts of ash accumulation. Communities
most likely to be impacted include Karluk and Larsen Bay.

Those in sensitive groups or with respiratory ailments are
encouraged to avoid or reduce outdoor activity to avoid inhaling
the ash.

Strong winds are expected to continue through at least Thursday
evening before weakening by Friday morning.