Gale Warning 235, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
521 AM AKDT Sun Mar 8 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Key Messages:

- Periodic snow showers gradually wind down across Southcentral
today.

- Strong northerly and westerly gap winds will continue into the
upcoming work week.

- Arctic air will continue to spill south today. The combination of
cold temperatures and winds could push wind chill values well below
zero for many locations by Sunday night.

Discussion:

Early morning water vapor satellite imagery shows a nearly stacked
large upper low rotating over the far NW Gulf and southern
Southcentral. Overnight, the surface low has been traversing the
southern Kenai and should be moving into the Gulf. This low
brought multiple snowbands with gusty winds through Homer and
Seldovia on its path to the Gulf. The satellite imagery shows
pretty clearly where steep lapse rates and warmer surface air is
resulting in more convectively driven precipitation over the Gulf
and associated coastal zones. Cold air advection on the back side
of this system is allowing temperatures to drop and for strong
winds over the AKPEN and Kodiak Island where wind chills have
dropped below zero. The south side of Kodiak Island where winds
are the strongest could see wind chills as low as fifteen below
zero in addition to snow showers and blowing snow this morning. As
such, a Cold Weather Advisory has been issued and is in effect
through 4 PM today for the entire island. Temperatures may warm
slightly this afternoon and winds will decrease as direction
changes to more northwesterly instead of westerly allowing for
warmer wind chill readings. However, the foreseeable future looks
to remain cold and additional cold weather headlines will likely
be needed as cold air moves back into Southcentral.

While pockets of light snow showers may linger through the late
morning to afternoon hours across portions of Southcentral,
precipitation chances are expected to decrease as the low moves
towards the AK Panhandle.

North and west gap winds have increased overnight and will remain
gusty today and into the workweek as reinforcing shots of Arctic
air get pushed south and the gradient along the coastal mountains
remains enhanced.

- PP

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3)...

KEY MESSAGES:

1) Multiple winter weather products remain in effect for the
Central Alaska Peninsula and Southwest Alaska this weekend.

2) High pressure builds in the Bering.

Key Messages Discussion:

1) Multiple winter weather products remain in effect for the
Central Alaska Peninsula and Southwest Alaska this weekend.

Low pressure in Prince William Sound will continue to draw
offshore winds through Monday to the Alaska Peninsula.
Additionally, frequent convective snow showers will affect this
region into Tuesday in addition to multiple rounds shortwaves
move through the area from the Pribilof Islands south to Unalaska
and east to the Mainland. The first of these waves, noticed by a
shift from northwest winds to northerly winds, brings heavier
snow showers into late this morning with another wave expected
Monday night into Tuesday morning. A winter weather advisory is in
effect for today's shortwave. Coastal areas from Toksook Bay to
Kipnuk will continue to experience northerly to northwesterly
wind and snow through late this morning. A winter weather advisory
is in effect for these conditions. Lastly and of longer duration,
northwesterly winds will result in wind chill values ranging from
20 to 40F below zero into Monday morning across the Mainland. The
lowest wind chills are expected inland near Bethel and
immediately along the coast.

2) High pressure builds in the Bering.

High pressure will build into the Bering through Monday bringing
the continued likelihood of convective snow showers for the
Aleutians. Northerly winds turn northeasterly as the high
pressure continues to build into mid-week. This building high
will bring strong gap winds ranging from 40 to 50 mph through the
passes during the aforementioned shortwaves crossing the
area.

-DJ

&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through
Saturday)...

Few changes to the previous discussion. Some hazards to watch for
in the long-term include:

* Another round of frigid wind chills as an Arctic air mass moves
  into Southern Alaska.

* Gusty gap winds, mostly along the coast and affecting locations
  such as Seward, Whittier, Valdez, Thompson Pass, Kodiak Island.

Upper-level troughing centered over the northern Gulf of Alaska
will extend south into the Northern Pacific, with multiple
shortwaves rotating around the trough. High pressure builds across
the Bering Sea through the forecast period. Strong northwesterly
flow and cold air advection will result in gusty gap winds and
cold temperatures across the Alaskan Peninsula. A tightening
coastal pressure gradient will also create strong winds through
the gaps of the North Gulf Coast. Forecast confidence is high that
both Southwest and Southcentral Alaska will continue to see below
normal temperatures through next week.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR ceilings and visibility will generally prevail today.
However, with an upper-level low over the Kenai Peninsula slow to
move south this morning and a second wave over interior
Southcentral also moving south, the occasional MVFR ceiling
cannot be ruled out from mid morning through late afternoon. By
later this afternoon, a northerly wind around 10 kt, with
occasional gusts between 15 and 20 kt, will develop. This
increase in wind should allow for drier air to work in over the
terminal, scouring out any lingering lower clouds. VRF conditions
should continue into Monday as a cold and dry northerly flow
persists across the region,

&&

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