Gale Warning 22, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
459 PM AKST Sun Jan 4 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Key Messages:

- Most of southern Alaska should prepare for a significant switch
  towards a snowier weather pattern beginning tonight and
  continuing through midweek. Several Winter Weather Advisories
  are in effect beginning at 9PM tonight for snow and blowing snow
  that could reduce visibility and make for a hazardous Monday
  morning commute.

Discussion:

Sunday saw some of the lowest temperatures across Southcentral
for the 2025/2026 winter seasons thus far. Morning low
temperatures ranged from the negative teens and -20s from across
the Kenai Peninsula, Anchorage, and MatSu Valleys, down into the
-40s and -50s for portions of the Copper Basin, from Mentasta Lake
down to Chitina along the Richardson Hwy.

It has been a prolonged period of colder weather and
predominantly dry conditions across Southcentral,the past several
days and weeks. This prevailing pattern will come to an end later
this evening/tonight across Southcentral with the arrival of a
frontal system lifting out of Southwest Alaska. The front, and a
trough immediately behind the front, will bring two rounds of snow
to the region. The first round begins tonight as the front moves
up Cook Inlet through the early morning hours on Monday. Snow
amounts with the first wave will be highest over the Kenai
Peninsula with 2 to 5 inches of widespread snow extending from
Kachemak Bay up into Kenai, Cooper Landing, and Turnagain Pass.
Ninilchik may be on the receiving end of the heaviest snow with up
to 8 inches possible as moisture over Cook Inlet is lifted into
the exposed Western Kenai coast. Snow amounts become lighter with
northward and eastward extent, and only 1 to 2 inches of snow is
forecast from Anchorage up into the MatSu. Moisture will also
overrun the Chugach into the Copper Basin, with a dusting to up to
2 inches of snow.

In addition to snow, a brief period of gusty northerly winds is
expected tomorrow morning, which should be ongoing during the
morning commute. Gusts as high as 30 mph will result in areas of
blowing snow and reduced visibility from the MatSu Valley down
into Anchorage, and also along the Western Kenai Coast. As such, a
Winter Weather Advisory is in effect beginning tonight for snow
and blowing snow along the western Kenai northwards to the Mat-Su
Valleys. A Winter Weather Advisory will also be in effect
beginning this evening and continuing through noon Monday for
snow and blowing snow for the Seward Highway along the Eastern
Turnagain Arm area, Portage, and Turnagain Pass as gusty winds
develop later tonight. Winds will decrease through the Portage
Valley and Eastern Turnagain Arm by late Monday morning as the
first round of snow winds down.

The second round of snow begins Monday afternoon as a compact
trough moves into the region behind the front. Moderate to heavy
snow develops and then persists into Tuesday, with lighter snow
lingering into Wednesday morning. This second round of snow will
bring 6 to 12 inches of snow from the Susitna Valley down into the
Turnagain Arm. Lighter accumulations of 2 to 5 inches will fall
across the Kenai Peninsula. Valdez and Thompson Pass will see
anywhere from 4 to 10 inches with the higher amounts across
Thompson Pass. Accumulations across the Copper River Basin will
be more varied with 2 to 5 inches from the Richardson Highway up
to Paxson. Snow tapers off from west to east late Tuesday
night/early Wednesday morning, with the Eastern Turnagain Arm and
Western Prince William Sound region perhaps experiencing another
couple of inches before all is said and done.

BL

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Tuesday)...

Key Messages:

- A potent frontal system brings high winds to the Bering Sea,
  Aleutian Islands, and Southern Alaska Peninsula and heavy snow,
  blowing snow, and strong winds to all of Southwest Alaska
  through Monday. Multiple watches, warnings, and advisories are
  in effect.

- High surf and coastal flooding along the Bering side of the
  Alaska Peninsula and the Bristol Bay coast with localized areas
  of waves 40 feet or greater.

- Colder air surges southwards post-storm, bringing a return to
  frigid temperatures and expanding coverage of heavy to extreme
  freezing spray along the ice edge.

Wind gusts ranging from 50 to 70 mph have been recorded in the
Aleutians, Pribilof Islands and Southwest coastline this
afternoon as a hurricane-force low continues to move through the
Bering Sea. These gusts will continue through tomorrow ranging
from 60 to 80 mph in the southwest coast to as high as 90 mph in
the Aleutians from Shemya to Cold Bay. Snow and blowing snow
continue along the Kuskokwim Delta Coast and interior Kuskokwim
Delta down into Bristol Bay. Blizzard conditions have been
reported in Cape Newenham and Toksook Bay this afternoon. Blizzard
conditions will continue into tomorrow afternoon. These winds
will also lead to reduced visibilities and difficult travel for
most interior locations. A shift of precipitation from the storm
to the east/southeast continues in this afternoon's forecast
package resulting in less snow expected in the area. Snow amounts
now range from 6 to 12 inches. Lastly, any wintry mix in the AK
Pen will be short-lived as winds change to the southwest changing
the snow into a mix of snow and rain this evening and then rain
overnight.

Cold air advection and trailing upper- level waves will allow
strong westerly / northwesterly winds to continue across the
Bering and Aleutian Chain into Tuesday. The strong west-
northwesterly winds across the Southeastern Bering and Bristol Bay
may result in a period of high surf and elevated water levels
across the Northern AKPen tomorrow.

Various waves rotating around the base of the upper-level low will
allow snow showers to continue across Southwest Alaska through
Tuesday, with the most persistent bands in favored upslope areas
due to the westerly wind flow. Behind the upper-level low, another
shot of arctic air will dive south. Expect temperatures to once
again drop well below zero with gusty northwesterly winds by
midweek.

-DJ/KC

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through
Saturday)...

Broad troughing with a closed low pressure system in the Gulf of
Alaska will be in place at the start of the long term forecast
period. Weak ridging over the eastern Bering Sea will keep
Southwest Alaska dry while snow showers linger across
Southcentral. Strong northwesterly winds through gaps of the
Alaska Peninsula are likely on Wednesday, especially through the
Barren Islands. The Gulf low looks to pull east toward the Alaska
Panhandle Wednesday afternoon which will diminish Southcentral
precipitation and winds through Thursday.

Further west, another strong low pressure system looks to bring
high winds and localized heavy precipitation to the western and
central Aleutians Wednesday and Thursday. While model agreement
regarding the eastward track of this system is very poor, it is
looking likely that the southern coast of Alaska sees a
significant round of precipitation Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Patchy fog will linger across the terminal through this
evening, resulting in periods of LIFR conditions with ceilings as
low as 200 ft and visibility dropping to less than a mile at
times. The fog is expected to slowly scour out as high and mid
level clouds increase this evening. By later tonight, ceilings
will continue to lower as snow develops over the terminal. IFR
conditions are likely beginning around midnight (9Z) and
continuing into early Monday morning. Visibilities may drop to
less than 1 SM in heavier snow. Northerly winds will also increase
slightly overnight, with drifting snow likely and periods of
blowing snow possible. The snow is expected to taper off by mid to
late morning.

-TM

&&