Gale Warning 175, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
530 AM AKST Wed Feb 18 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Friday)...

The ridge of high pressure is still over the eastern Mainland
this morning with a front that is approaching from the west. The
front is currently over the Kuskokwim Delta and will make its way
to Southcentral under southwesterly flow by this afternoon. By
late afternoon, snow is expected to spread east across Prince
William Sound and the Copper River Basin. As snow ends for the
Cook Inlet region, freezing drizzle may occur for a couple hours
before precipitation comes to an end tonight. Meanwhile, snow
would linger for the Copper River Basin through Thursday morning.
Cold air that follows the front, along with a resurgence of arctic
energy that sinks south, will lead to an marked increase in
wind speeds across the region.

Model agreement is still somewhat poor for the resolving snow
amounts with this passage. For Anchorage, 1 to 2 inches is
expected with 2 to 4 inches along the Anchorage/Eagle River
Hillsides and Matanuska Valley. Little accumulation is expected
along the western portion of the Susitna Valley and the Kenai
Peninsula, except for Turnagain Pass and Portage/Whittier where 1
to 2 inches is possible. Along Broad Pass and eastern portions of
the Susitna Valley, including Talkeetna, expect around 2 to 4
inches. The "snow winners" out of this system will be for
locations in the eastern Copper River Basin where snow looks to
linger through Thursday morning. Totals from McCarthy to Chitina
and up to Slana will range from 3 to 6 inches of snow. On the
backside of this system, freezing drizzle is possible across
Anchorage, the Matanuska Valley, and along the interior and
Western Kenai Peninsula this evening and tonight as low-level
moisture present and the dendritic growth zone drying out.

Attention quickly shifts to a broad Arctic trough and associated
strong cold air advection dropping southeastward out of Siberia
and over Southcentral starting Thursday. Gap winds through all
coastal passages and through the favored terrain will increase
beginning Thursday and peak in strength Friday morning during the
strongest cold air advection. There are still questions and some
uncertainty about how strong the winds might be. One thing that
does stand out is that despite the strong cold air advection, flow
aloft and surface pressure gradients do not support an impactful
wind event for the Matanuska Valley. Also of note is that any snow
that falls Wednesday will most likely be transportable, unless it
is glazed over by any freezing drizzle this evening into Thursday
morning. Therefore, blowing snow could become an issue, Thursday
into Friday; especially across Whittier and Thompson Pass. Winds
through terrain gaps could especially become gusty, exceeding 50
to 60 mph for Whittier/Passage Canal, Seward/Resurrection Bay,
Valdez and Thompson Pass, Shelikof Strait and Kodiak Thursday
night and Friday. Temperatures will remain somewhat elevated with
the winds blowing, despite the strong cold air advection. However,
when winds diminish this weekend, temperatures will drop quickly.

Looking into the marine forecast, sustained storm-force winds
with hurricane-force gusts are likely through the Barren Islands
and across Augustine southward through Shelikof Strait Thursday
afternoon through Friday night. These strong winds in conjunction
with the cold Arctic air will combine to produce extreme vessel
icing at rates of 4 cm or greater from Augustine southward through
Shelikof Strait. The greatest chance for extreme vessel icing in
Shelikof Strait is along the immediate coast of the Alaska
Peninsula. As winds diminish on Saturday, icing rates will
decrease. A Marine Weather Statement has been issued for both the
Shelikof Strait marine zone as well as for the zone west of the
Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay to bring awareness to the
extreme freezing spray/extreme vessel icing concerns for Thursday
afternoon through Friday night. Stay tuned to the forecast as
finer details are ironed out on the magnitude of gap winds for
Thursday and Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA / BERING SEA / ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Friday)...

A cold front continues to sag southeast this morning, now
stretching between the Kuskokwim Delta and the eastern Aleutians.
Steady snow is beginning to clear out behind the frontal passage
across western parts of the Kuskokwim Delta, with the main band of
snow following the front on track to move into Bristol Bay later
this morning. Slightly warmer temperatures above freezing along
the Alaska Peninsula will support more of a rain-snow mix as the
front pushes past later today. Quieter conditions have moved in
across the rest of the Bering Sea behind the frontal boundary,
where westerly flow and isolated marine snow showers are moving
into place this morning.

By this afternoon, the front will weaken and cross over the Alaska
Range as a building upper ridge begins to take shape across the
Bering and Aleutians. Farther north, a fast-moving shortwave
trough will dig into northern parts of Southwest this evening into
tonight, sending a quick round of snow showers into the Kuskokwim
Delta/Valley. Gusty west winds will also tick back up as the
squalls of snow showers move through, potentially leading to
renewed areas of blowing snow across namely the Kuskokwim Delta
through early Thursday.

From Thursday into Friday, the large scale pattern in place will
amplify considerably as the Bering ridge continues to sharpen and
grow stronger. To the west of this strong high pressure, a North
Pacific low heading up into Kamchatka will send a strong front
past the western Aleutians Thursday afternoon and evening,
continuing north into the western Bering on Friday. Widespread
gales will expand across the western Bering as the front lifts
north, with a brief period of storm force winds possible west of
Attu late in the day on Thursday. Mild temperatures in the 30s and
40s will spread into much of the western half of the Aleutian
Chain as a stream of moisture and warmth originating from the
tropics advances north behind the initial warm front passage.

In sharp contrast, temperatures will trend towards well below
average values in the 0s above to 10s below zero across Southwest
as a powerful corridor of northerly flow develops between the
strong Bering high and a downstream trough driving south into the
Gulf. This will allow Arctic air to spill southward from the
Chukchi Sea vicinity down into much of Southwest, yielding very
cold, dry and mostly clear conditions towards the end of this
week. Very strong northerly gap winds will also develop south of
the Alaska Peninsula, particularly for marine waters between
Chignik and Kodiak Island, where storm force sustained winds with
hurricane force gusts are likely to develop on Friday.

-AS

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 - Saturday through
Tuesday)...

An upper level trough moves south into the Gulf of Alaska,
transitioning the pattern to a more amplified setup. Ridging
builds over the Bering while a deeper trough settles over the
Gulf, allowing an arctic airmass to spread across Southwest and
into Southcentral Alaska.

Conditions trend drier from Friday into the weekend as the ridge
strengthens. Clearing skies combined with cold air in place will
support strong radiational cooling and colder overnight
temperatures.

By late Sunday into Monday, the ridge begins to shift east as a
new low moves into the Bering Sea. Precipitation chances begin
returning to western Alaska, with timing still uncertain.

The pattern turns more unsettled as the next system approaches
from the west. Increasing clouds are expected with a chance of
snow returning to portions of Southcentral Alaska. Confidence in
timing and snowfall amounts remain low this far out.

LM

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...MVFR conditions will most likely prevail as mid level
clouds move in ahead of a front. The front will push light snow
over the terminal late this morning, yielding low end MVFR to IFR
ceilings/vis. Conditions should improve as the front works its way
out of the area late this afternoon, though light snow may
transition to freezing drizzle after around 03Z as precipitation
comes to an end by Thursday morning. Winds will be light and
northerly through the TAF period.

-AM

&&