Gale Warning 169, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
518 AM AKST Mon Feb 16 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Discussion:

Early morning satellite imagery shows clearing fog and low stratus
across much of Southcentral as a shortwave trough continues to dive
southwards across the Copper Basin. Cold air advection behind this
system and relatively clear skies will allow temperatures to steadly
drop this morning before we recover somewhat this afternoon. Inland
surface winds may pick up a bit as the front moves through before
dropping back down. However, this system will bring an increase to
Southcentral gap winds through favored terrain and passes, beginning
this morning and continuing through Tuesday evening...though the
strongest of the gap winds will occur today. A Wind Advisory remains
in effect through 6 PM today for winds of 40 to 55 mph for Valdez.
Strong winds are also anticipated for Thompson Pass where gusts
could reach 65 mph. Gap winds will decrease tonight but remaining
gusty through tomorrow.

Much of Southcentral can anticipate quiet weather for the next few
days as an amplified ridge builds over mainland Alaska. As the ridge
axis moves over the western Gulf (extending up into central Alaska),
a trough will traverse the Bering Sea, then the AKPEN before moving
into the western Gulf by Monday night into early Tuesday morning. A
surface low will develop south of Kodiak Island and quickly move out
into the central Gulf. Precipitation will accompany this system and
looks to remain confined to the AKPEN and Kodiak Island.
Temperatures will be near or just below freezing and the column
looks to support all snow with a possible period of a rain-snow mix.
Models vary widely on both the placement of the surface low and
snowfall amounts for Kodiak Island. Have upped snowfall totals
slightly given the vertical temperature profiles and a saturated
DGZ. Much of the island should see at least 1-2 inches of snowfall
with the potential for several more inches along higher terrain in
favored east facing upslope areas. Depending on where the surface
low develops, snowfall amounts could change. A more southerly shift
would decrease snowfall amounts, especially on the northern side of
the island. Precipitation will quickly wind down by late morning to
early afternoon. The ridge will reestablish Tuesday night and
Wednesday bringing back the potential for low stratus and fog in
favored areas of Southcentral.

- PP

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA / BERING SEA / ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Thursday)...

A strong front associated with a low moving toward the Gulf of
Anadyr is passing across the Bering, bringing heavy rain/snow and
gusty winds to the Aleutians and Pribilof Islands. The Southwest
Mainland is mostly clear and calm for now, but clouds from the
front are beginning to stream in from the west. The front will
push inland this (Monday) morning and will bring gusty SE winds
and moderate to heavy snowfall to the Southwest Coast. Blowing
snow could reduce visibility to below a quarter of a mile, causing
whiteout conditions. Due to this threat the Blizzard Warning for
the Kuskokwim Delta and the Western Capes remains in effect
through midnight. A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for
the Northern Bristol Bay Coast due to lesser but still significant
snow and blowing snow. As the front pushes inland, winds will
quickly diminish, with the swath of precipitation moving eastward
through the mainland, breaking on the Alaska Range by Tuesday
morning.

Ridging will build in behind the front, allowing for a period of
calm and clearer weather. This will be shortlived as a lesser
plume of moisture associated with weak dynamics moves into the
Bering by Tuesday afternoon. The plume will stretch from the
Western Aleutians, through the Pribilof Islands, to the Kuskokwim
Delta by Tuesday evening. Another round of snowfall and elevated
wind speeds are expected for the Southwest Coast; rain is
expected along the Aleutians and mixed precipitation across the
Pribilof Islands. It is possible that blowing snow could impact
the Kuskokwim Delta again with this event. Winds speeds are still
a bit uncertain, but are trending down, so significant blowing
snow is less likely. Wednesday has the plume of moisture spread
out over the Southwest Mainland, bringing snowfall. A cold air
mass associated with an Arctic trough will arrive over Southwest
Alaska, so temperatures are expected to drop through Wednesday.
Precipitation will clear out by Wednesday afternoon. By Thursday,
the axis of the trough will pass over the Mainland, dropping
temperatures below 0 in many areas. A ridge will move over the
Bering, allowing for calmer and clearer conditions, but a low
approaches from the North Pacific, which will shake things up for
the end of the week.

JAR/AB

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 - Thursday through
Sunday)...

A trough digging across western Alaska on Thursday will drop
southward into the Gulf on Friday. The trough's passage will lead
to a highly amplified pattern across the region with a strong
ridge of high pressure building over the Bering and a deepening
trough over the Gulf of Alaska. An arctic airmass will accompany
the trough's passage, spilling into all of Southwest and much of
Southcentral Alaska. Scattered snow showers will be possible on
Thursday across Southwest Alaska and to a lesser extent across the
Copper River Basin. As such, below normal temperatures will be on
tap for both Southwest and Southcentral with the arrival of the
arctic airmass from the interior. A period of dry weather is
forecast from Friday into the the weekend, with clear skies and
strong radiational cooling likely to aid in dropping overnight
temperatures. In addition to the cooler weather, gusty gap winds
across the AKPEN and more likely the Gulf coast are forecast,
especially on Friday and Saturday. The denser and cooler air will
filter through the gaps and passes toward low pressure in the
Gulf. There is even some potential for high winds, though at
timing and intensity are far too uncertain to glean this far away
in the forecast.

BL

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period.
Wind has done well at mixing any fog or low stratus out this
morning, and what fog remains is very patchy and transient in
nature. Expect light northerly winds today with gusts up to 20
knots before 00z.

&&