Gale Warning 156, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
452 AM AKST Fri Feb 13 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Sunday evening)...

Low stratus and fog continue to linger from the southern Cook
Inlet northward across the Mat-Su Valleys this morning ahead of a
weak shortwave trough moving over the Alaska Range. The low cover
is expected to diminish this afternoon in the wake of this trough;
however, a transient ridge building over and a developing
southwesterly flow ahead of the next shortwave will likely allow
any lingering low clouds to expand in coverage late this evening
through the overnight hours. Gusty gap winds through
Whittier/Passage Canal, Seward/Resurrection Bay, Valdez Narrows,
and Thompson Pass will also continue through this afternoon before
slowly diminishing in intensity. Areas of drifting and blowing
snow remain possible through Thompson Pass at times; however,
visibility is not expected to be significantly reduced.

The forecast into the weekend look on track as the next weather-
maker moves in for Saturday as a shortwave from the Bering Sea
moves eastward and overhead. Light snow is expected to begin
across the Kenai Peninsula, Anchorage, and Mat-Su Valleys by late
Saturday morning and advance eastward across the rest of
Southcentral through the day. Southerly to south- southwesterly
flow ahead of this shortwave will promote enhanced snow through
the Matanuska Valley, Hatcher Pass, and the Anchorage/Eagle River
Hillsides. Due to how progressive the weather pattern is though,
snow will not hang out long over the area. Overall, anticipate a
few inches of snow falling across Anchorage (in the 1 to 3 or 2 to
4 inch range) with a few more inches possible due to the
favorable flow pattern for Palmer to Chickaloon as well as the
Anchorage and Eagle River Hillsides (3 to 6 inches). Trends for
the Kenai Peninsula are for lower snow totals up to an inch
through Saturday evening with the exception of Portage/Whittier
seeing up to 1 to 3 inches, as well as the Copper River Basin.
Behind this system, cold air advection ensues for Saturday night
into Sunday with gap winds through the favored terrain and passes
ratcheting back up.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

Key Points

* Blizzard Warning for Kuskokwim Delta

 - A front will bring gusty winds and heavy snowfall to the
   Kuskokwim Delta Friday morning. Visibility could be reduced to
   a quarter mile or less in blowing snow. Snow will eventually
   transition to freezing rain by Friday afternoon as temperatures
   warm. Freezing rain transitions back to snow by Saturday
   morning.

* Winter Weather Advisory Aniak Region

- Snowfall in the Aniak region will transition to a mix of
  freezing rain and snow by early Saturday morning. This mix will
  become snow again by late Saturday morning when temperatures
  cool.

* Winter Weather Advisory Bristol Bay

- Snowfall in Bristol Bay will transition to freezing rain by
  Friday evening. Temperatures warm above freezing by Saturday
  morning, transitioning freezing rain to rain.

* Winter Weather Advisory AKPEN

 - A wintry mix will transition to freezing rain and impact much
   of the AKPEN Friday morning into Saturday. This wintry mix will
   become freezing rain by Friday afternoon. Freezing rain becomes
   rain Saturday morning when temperatures rise above freezing.

Currently, a front is gliding along the top of a ridge in the
Bering. This is bringing gusty winds and precipitation to the
Adak region. This swath of winds and precipitation is making its
way over to the Southwest Mainland. The front will push onshore by
Friday morning, initially bringing snowfall and gusty winds to the
Kuskokwim Delta. Blowing snow is likely in this region through
Friday afternoon which could reduce visibility to a quarter mile
or less. Bristol Bay will also see a round of snowfall, albeit
with a lower risk of blowing snow. However, a warmer air mass will
accompany the front, first warming aloft temperatures above
freezing. This will cause snow to transition to freezing rain
across the Southwest mainland Friday afternoon into Saturday
morning. Eventually, a cold front will arrive behind the front and
transition rain and freezing rain back into snow late Saturday
morning before the precipitation ends.

Zonal flow sets in by Saturday evening, allowing for calmer and
drier weather across Southwest Alaska and the Aleutians. A short
burst of precipitation is possible on Sunday for the Kuskokwim
Delta as a low passes north of the area. A broad ridge moves into
Eastern Bering by Sunday afternoon, allowing for continued drier
and calmer weather. However, behind the ridge is large front. This
front will bring gusty southerly winds and precipitation along the
Aleutians as the front pushes eastward. By Monday night, the
front will arrive at the Eastern Aleutians/Alaska Peninsula
region. Warm air advection will allow precipitation with the front
to transition to rain or rain/snow.

-JAR

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 - Monday through
Thursday)...

Persistent upper level ridging looks to remain anchored in the
Pacific through the middle of next week with troughing over
northwestern Canada. At times throughout the week, ridging will
extend into Southwest and Southcentral Alaska. Shortwaves will
make attempts to break ridging down throughout the week. The
highest confidence is Monday-Tuesday as a wave moves out of the
Aleutians through Southwest and Southcentral Alaska. Chances for
light to moderate precipitation are highest Monday for the
Aleutians as rain and early Tuesday for Southwest Alaska as snow
with some mixed precip along the Bristol Bay coast. Some light
precipitation may spill into Southcentral Tuesday, though chances
for precipitation are low except for Kodiak Island.

After Tuesday morning models agree on a progressive pattern of
shortwaves moving along the ridge, but diverge on both the timing
and location of shortwaves and the position of the ridge.
Slight chances for precipitation continue midweek for the
Aleutians and Southwest as waves pass through. Though temperatures
next week will be cooler compared to this week across Southwest
and Southcentral, this pattern should prevent hazardous cold
temperatures from moving in. Details of midweek shortwave timing
and positioning of the ridge will become more clear in the coming
days.

-PA

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR to MVFR conditions expected through the early morning
hours, with VFR conditions prevailing by late this morning and
early this afternoon. Snow showers possible very early this
morning are expected to come to an end by the late morning,
clearing out skies by the afternoon. Wind speeds will remain
light and variable. Low stratus and patches of fog developed
overnight may persist into the early morning hours before lifting
out.

&&