Gale Warning 15, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
513 PM AKST Sat Jan 3 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Key Messages:

- Some of the coldest temperatures and wind chills of the season
  are expected across Southcentral to continue through this
  weekend. An Extreme Cold Warning is in effect for the Copper
  River Valley, including Glennallen and Chitina through Sunday.
  Cold Weather Advisories are in effect through Sunday for most of
  the Copper River Basin, Thompson Pass, Anchorage, Whittier, and
  the Kenai Peninsula. Apparent temperatures well below zero are
  expected. Frostbite and hypothermia are likely if exposed to
  these temperatures.

- Frostbite on exposed skin can occur in as little as 5 minutes.
  Prepare for the weather by wearing appropriate clothing, hat,
  and gloves. Protect your pipes and trickle faucets. While
  traveling, use caution. Carry extra supplies and wear your
  winter gear while traveling. Check on yourself and others who
  may be vulnerable to these temperatures.

- Most of southern Alaska should plan ahead and prepare for a
  significant switch towards a snowier weather pattern expected
  late this weekend and next week. Monitor for updates to forecast
  as details continue to evolve and confidence on timing/amounts
  increases.

The weather across Southcentral again remains steady this
afternoon as frigid cold and clear conditions continue, other than
areas of cloud cover lingering near McCarthy and Cordova. Cold
air funneling through coastal terrain continues to bring gusty gap
winds through typical locations including Seward and Whittier.
These winds are expected to persist until Sunday morning when the
pattern begins to shift. Calm winds and clear skies across
Southcentral will continue to allow for bitterly cold temperatures
to stick around through the weekend. Ambient high temperatures
will continue to be in the single digits above and below zero
across the Cook Inlet region (Anchorage, western Kenai, Mat-Su)
and in the teens for much of the immediate coastline along the
northern Gulf and Prince William Sound (including Seward,
Whittier, Valdez, and Cordova). Low temperatures across Cook Inlet
communities and into the Mat-Su could see low temperatures in the
minus single digits to nearly 30 below. Meanwhile, the Copper
Basin will likely be in the range of 20 to 30 below zero for the
highs and lows of 30 to 60 below zero. Although winds are expected
to generally remain calm, any bit of wind would drop the apparent
temperatures lower. The aforementioned cloud cover over McCarthy
has helped to moderate temperatures today for that area, but
clearing skies tonight will allow for temperatures here to also
drop to around 40 below zero.

Temperatures are set to trend relatively warmer and become more
dynamic heading into early next week. Confidence has become high
for a return to snowfall for many locations across southern
Alaska, including Southcentral. Current thinking is for
precipitation to begin Sunday afternoon for Kodiak Island as snow
before transitioning to a rain/snow mix and eventually plain rain
Sunday evening. The front continues to lift north and east through
the Kenai Peninsula and Prince William Sound through Sunday
evening, bringing the first of two rounds of snowfall expected for
Southcentral. Anchorage could see snow as early as late Sunday
evening, while the Susitna Valley, the rest of the northern Gulf
coast (Cordova), and Copper River Basin are likely to see snowfall
through the overnight hours Sunday and into Monday morning.
Although temperatures are expected to begin to moderate Sunday
night into Monday, cold surface temperatures will likely not scour
out very quickly. This could cause dry, highly transportable snow
to blow and drift easily as northerly winds increase Sunday night
as the front approaches the Gulf coast. Reduced visibility and
blowing/drifting snow will be a potential problem for several
areas, especially the western Kenai Peninsula and locations prone
to gustier winds such as Thompson Pass.

Once stronger easterly flow moves across the Kenai and Chugach
mountains early to mid Monday morning, there could be some
downslope drying, cutting off snowfall briefly for those on the
leeside. However, a more significant and longer duration wave of
snow will quickly follow later Monday afternoon. Moist
southwesterly flow, cold air advection, and high snow liquid
ratios will bring precipitation enhancement for the Cook Inlet
communities and along the upslope regions of the Talkeetna
mountains. These higher snowfall rates and accumulating snowfall
amounts likely persist through at least Monday night into Tuesday
morning. Details on this shift towards a snowier pattern and snow
amounts are expected to evolve over the next few days. Monitor for
updates to the forecast.

JH/Rux

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Saturday evening through Tuesday)...

Key Messages:

- A frontal system will bring a band of snow and some gusty winds
  along the Kuskokwim Delta coast this afternoon and evening.

- Very cold temperatures across interior Southwest Alaska will
  remain through tonight before a slow warming trend takes place.

- A potent frontal system will bring heavy snow and strong winds
  to all of Southwest Alaska Sunday morning through Monday. Steady
  snow will slowly taper off from west to east through Monday with
  snow showers lingering across the Kuskokwim Delta and steadier
  snow lingering along the Alaska Range.

Several new products have been issued and/or upgraded this
afternoon. Here are watches, warnings, and advisories currently
in effect:

* High Wind Warning remains in effect for Western and Central
  Aleutians.
* High Wind Warning remains in effect for Eastern Aleutians and
  Southern Alaska Peninsula.
* High Wind Watch remains in effect for Pribilof Islands.
* Cold Weather Advisories remain in effect for Kuskokwim Valley,
  Kuskokwim Delta, and inland Bristol Bay.
* Blizzard Warning for Kuskokwim Delta and Western Capes.
* Winter Storm Warning for Northern Bristol Bay coast, inland
  Bristol Bay, King Salmon, Kuskokwim Valley, Lake Iliamna / Nila
  Vena / Nanvarpak and Lime Village.
* Winter Weather Advisory for Northern Alaska Peninsula.
* High Surf Advisory for Northern Alaska Peninsula.

A weakening occluded front and associated upper level trough will
bring a period of light snow and breezy conditions to the
Southwest coast today, especially along the Kuskokwim Delta coast.
Both features will weaken further tonight with snow coming to an
end. The snow and winds may bring a period of reduced visibilities
later today to Kipnuk and Toksook Bay. Very cold temperatures will
also remain across interior Southwest through the next 24 hours
or so before clouds increase ahead of a strong frontal boundary,
allowing temperatures to slowly moderate through Sunday and
Monday.

The main weather feature of note continues to be the likely
sub-950 mb, hurricane-force North Pacific low moving north into
the Bering for Sunday. This low will bring high winds to the
Aleutian Chain and southern Bering Sunday into Monday with gusts
up to 100 mph possible for Adak and Atka and up to 80 mph for
Shemya and Unalaska to Cold Bay. This low will bring a front into
Southwest Alaska by midday on Sunday, with moderate to heavy snow
and blowing snow. Blizzard conditions will be likely stretching
from the Kuskokwim Delta Coast and interior Kuskokwim Delta down
into Bristol Bay. Snow amounts will range from 8 to 16 inches with
gusts as high as 40 to 50 mph, especially across Nunivak Island
and the YK Delta. Snow will develop across interior Southwest by
early to mid afternoon Sunday, with heavy snow and gusty winds at
times. Snow amounts may be slightly less than those forecast
along the coast; however, heavy snow and winds will still lead to
reduced visibilities and difficult travel for most interior
locations.

Some model guidance continues to suggest the potential for a
wintry mix along portions of the northern Alaska Peninsula.
Although this pattern, with winds shifting to the southeast along
the front, usually denotes a quick changeover from snow to rain,
it is possible to see pockets of sleet and/or freezing rain given
the very cold antecedent conditions. As such, a Winter Weather
Advisory is out from Pilot Point to Egegik for this potential
wintry mix.

The front will stall and occlude as it gets to the coast, keeping
the warm air aloft from moving over the southwest mainland. The
main low will then move to the Pribilofs by Monday morning then to
Bristol Bay by Monday evening. As it does, weak cold air advection
and trailing upper-level waves will allow strong westerly winds to
continue across the southern Bering and Aleutian Chain. These
winds will likely persist into Tuesday for the eastern Aleutians
and Alaska Peninsula until a upper-level low over NW Alaska dives
south and the trough axis pushes east of the region. The strong
west-northwesterly winds across the Southeastern Bering and
Bristol Bay may result in a period of high surf and elevated water
levels across the Northern AKPen Monday.

Various waves rotating around the base of the upper-level low will
allow snow showers to continue across Southwest Alaska through
Tuesday, with the most persistent bands in favored upslope areas
due to the westerly wind flow. Behind the upper-level low, another
shot of arctic air will dive south. Expect temperatures to once
again drop well below zero with gusty northwesterly winds by
midweek.

-TM

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through
Saturday)...

Broad troughing with a closed low pressure system in the Gulf of
Alaska will be in place at the start of the long term forecast
period. Weak ridging over the eastern Bering Sea will keep
Southwest Alaska dry while snow showers linger across
Southcentral. Strong northwesterly winds through gaps of the
Alaska Peninsula are likely on Wednesday, especially through the
Barren Islands. The Gulf low looks to pull east toward the Alaska
Panhandle Wednesday afternoon which will diminish Southcentral
precipitation and winds through Thursday.

Further west, another strong low pressure system looks to bring
high winds and localized heavy precipitation to the western and
central Aleutians Wednesday and Thursday. While model agreement
regarding the eastward track of this system is very poor, it is
looking likely that the southern coast of Alaska sees a
significant round of precipitation Friday and Saturday.

&&
.AVIATION...

PANC...The specter for periods of fog or low stratus will
continue into Sunday as clear skies, bitterly cold temperatures,
and light winds persist.

&&