Gale Warning 148, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
442 AM AKST Tue Feb 10 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Thursday night)...

Snow showers continue this morning across the Northern Gulf,
Prince William Sound, and parts of the coastal mountains as a weak
trough lingers in the wake of the shortwave that exited the Copper
River Basin overnight. Farther inland and across the northern Cook
Inlet, low stratus persists in the weak low-level flow underneath
a transient ridge nestled between the aforementioned trough and a
potent upper-level low over the Bering Sea. Pockets of light
freezing drizzle are possible from Palmer south along the Glenn
Highway to Eagle River and east Anchorage early this morning given
the 12z PANC sounding profile showing a layer of dry air overtop
a nearly saturated near surface environment.

Overall, the forecast is on track, albeit with a slightly quicker
progression of the frontal system. Please refer to the previous
forecast discussion for the details.

Attention quickly shifts to a lifting frontal system originating
from a strong low pressure system in the Bering Sea Tuesday.
Precipitation will reach Kodiak Island first Tuesday morning with
a rain/snow mix turning to rain by mid-morning. Snow and rain/snow
mix then lifts northward to the rest of the coast, Kenai
Peninsula, Anchorage, and Mat-Su Valleys by late Tuesday morning.
For Anchorage, expect light snow to be falling by late morning and
then to cut off by afternoon with stronger southeast downslope
flow aloft. However, when the while upper trough lifts through the
area and a surface low pressure system tracks into Prince William
Sound, expect snow to fill back in by the evening and overnight
hours. Expect a light accumulation of a few inches possible across
the Anchorage area.

Higher snowfall amounts look to occur across Turnagain Pass, the
Western Susitna Valley, as well as along the Cook Inlet coast of
the Western Kenai Peninsula. Locations from Anchor Point northward
to Nikiski could see 4 to 8 inches of snow with lower amounts
inland Tuesday. Turnagain pass looks to see 5 to 10 inches of snow
Tuesday afternoon into the overnight hours. With this, Winter
Weather Advisories have been issued for the entirety of the
Western Kenai Peninsula as well as Turnagain Pass for the
anticipated snow amounts Tuesday. The heaviest snow will fall
along the Western Kenai Peninsula mid-morning Tuesday through the
early afternoon with light snow continuing into the evening.
Across Turnagain Pass, the heaviest snow will fall from the early
afternoon hours through the evening hours, including the evening
commute.

In addition, the Western Susitna Valley, Willow, and portions of
the Northern Copper River Basin, especially Paxson, will also
experience a period of moderate to heavy snow Tuesday. A Winter
Weather Advisories have also been issued for the Susitna Valley
for 5 to 12 inches of snow, Paxson for 6 to 12 inches of snow, and
Thompson Pass for 7 to 14 inches of snow along with winds up to 35
mph resulting in blowing snow. These advisories are out through
Wednesday morning and Wednesday evening, respectively.

Additional rounds of light snow are likely for Wednesday as the
Bering Sea low pressure system continues to push shortwaves over
Southcentral Alaska. Light snow will also be aided by the
weakening surface low pressure system moving inland from Prince
William Sound. Another low pressure system lifts into the
southcentral Gulf for Thursday. However, indications are that most
of the energy and precipitation with this system will be confined
to the eastern Gulf and Southeast Alaska. Stay tuned to the
forecast as minor adjustments will continue to made as this system
progresses and subsequent model runs begin to pin down the
location of snow showers Wednesday into Thursday.

-TM/DAN

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

KEY MESSAGES...

1) A High Wind Warning remains in effect for Adak and Atka until
noon today, and a Wind Advisory remains in effect for Unalaska
through 9PM this evening.

2) The Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for the Pribilof
Islands through 9PM this evening.

3) Heavy snow/blowing snow expected for coastal Southwest Alaska
and the Kuskokwim Delta, with blizzard conditions expected along
the Kuskokwim Delta Coast.

The large Bering Sea low is currently situated west of the
Pribilof Islands and will continue making its way northeastward
toward Nunivak Island/Southwest Coast over the next couple of
days. The associated front is expected to reach the Southwest
Coast early this morning, bringing rounds of heavy snow/blowing
snow, with blizzard conditions highly likely along the Kuskokwim
Delta Coast, with increasing chances for blizzard conditions in
the Western Capes. The front is expected to work its way inland
and weaken through today, spreading snow further inland. Some
warmer air is expected to filter in behind the front, bringing
temperatures up into the upper 20's and low 30's, though mostly
remaining at or below freezing for most areas of Southwest.
Regardless of warming temperatures, snow showers are expected to
continue behind the front, persisting (but lighter overall)
through Wednesday morning. Winds will gradually diminish but are
expected to remain gusty through Wednesday morning as well,
resulting in brief periods of localized blowing snow at times. Due
to the amount of sea ice into the Bering and shorefast ice along
the coast, the threat of coastal impacts is minimal at this time.

Winds across the Bering Sea will remain gusty today as the low
tracks east/northeast. Strong winds ranging from 80 to 90 mph
across Adak and Atka expected this morning will begin diminishing
this afternoon. Similarly, wind gusts as high as 70 mph are
possible along the Eastern Aleutians, including Unalaska through
much of today into this evening. Additionally, strong south-
southeasterly winds pushing over the Pribilofs, combined with
persistent snowfall, will continue into through this evening. The
heaviest snow is expected to taper off later this morning, but
gusty winds and lighter falling snow may continue to result in
reduced visibilities in blowing snow.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 - Friday through Monday)...

By Friday, a weak but well agreed low pressure system will be
stationed over the northern Gulf of Alaska, likely promoting
unsettled conditions with onshore easterly flow into the Western
Prince William Sound and precipitation. A similarly weak ridge
over the Southern Alaska Peninsula will be weakening further and
retreating to the northern Pacific, making way for the next system
to enter the Bering. A strong low over the Kamchatka Peninsula
Friday morning will have pushed a fairly strong front into the
Central Bering and Aleutians. Agreement is mixed on whether or not
a subsequent low will form along the triple-point of this front,
which would work to increase it's effects across the region. By
Friday morning, the front will be sweeping a large swath of strong
southerly winds across much of the Chain, and by later Friday
morning, pushing a new precipitation pattern into Southwest
Alaska. By Friday afternoon, agreement remains strong that the
Kamchatka low shifts into the Northern Bering, allowing the front
to orient favorably for strong onshore winds into Southwest Alaska
as well as continued precipitation across the area.

Uncertainty arises on Saturday with the potential for smaller
lows to move through the Bering. These would up winds and
precipitation chances for wherever they move over. Uncertainty for
Southcentral is a little better, with a low forming somewhere in
the northern Gulf, allowing for snowfall for the coast and
potentially inland as well. The picture will become more clear
overtime as guidance gets a better feel for the forecast. By
Sunday morning, agreement degrades further with some solutions
bringing the ridge back in over the Southern Alaska Peninsula and
another potent low moving near the Kamchatka Peninsula. Another,
slower front may be entering the Western Bering and Aleutians near
Shemya by Monday morning, with Southwest Alaska to shift back into
a more benign inactive pattern.

-CL

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...The persistent stratus deck is beginning to erode over the
terminal as drier air works into the region along with a light
northwesterly wind. A FEW to SCT cloud deck below 1,000ft is also
possible over the terminal through mid-morning. A potent frontal
system moves into the area later this morning with LLWS developing
as southeasterly wind aloft increase but a northerly wind holds
over the terminal. Light snow will also develop over the terminal
by mid-morning, with vis and cig lowering to MVFR. The increasing
southeasterly winds aloft, however, will act to mitigate snowfall
from around noon through late afternoon. Steadier snow then
returns, along with IFR conditions, as the cross-barrier winds
subside. Southerly surface winds then increase in the wake of the
front tonight. Conditions slowly improve by Wednesday morning;
however, bands of snow showers may result in periodic MVFR
conditions.

&&

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