Gale Warning 145, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
517 PM AKST Mon Feb 9 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
(Days 1 through 3: This afternoon through Thursday evening)...

Snow will continue to taper off across the eastern Copper River
Basin this evening. Besides some lingering snow showers across
Western Prince William Sound and the coastal mountain ranges,
expect a rather quiet night in the weather department across
Southcentral Alaska.

Attention quickly shifts to a lifting frontal system originating
from a strong low pressure system in the Bering Sea Tuesday.
Precipitation will reach Kodiak Island first Tuesday morning with
a rain/snow mix turning to rain by mid-morning. Snow and rain/snow
mix then lifts northward to the rest of the coast, Kenai
Peninsula, Anchorage, and Mat-Su Valleys by late Tuesday morning.
For Anchorage, expect light snow to be falling by late morning and
then to cut off by afternoon with stronger southeast downslope
flow aloft. However, when the while upper trough lifts through the
area and a surface low pressure system tracks into Prince William
Sound, expect snow to fill back in by the evening and overnight
hours. Expect a light accumulation of a few inches possible across
the Anchorage area.

Higher snowfall amounts look to occur across Turnagain Pass, the
Western Susitna Valley, as well as along the Cook Inlet coast of
the Western Kenai Peninsula. Locations from Anchor Point northward
to Nikiski could see 4 to 8 inches of snow with lower amounts
inland Tuesday. Turnagain pass looks to see 5 to 10 inches of snow
Tuesday afternoon into the overnight hours. With this, Winter
Weather Advisories have been issued for the entirety of the
Western Kenai Peninsula as well as Turnagain Pass for the
anticipated snow amounts Tuesday. The heaviest snow will fall
along the Western Kenai Peninsula mid-morning Tuesday through the
early afternoon with light snow continuing into the evening.
Across Turnagain Pass, the heaviest snow will fall from the early
afternoon hours through the evening hours, including the evening
commute.

In addition, the Western Susitna Valley, Willow, and portions of
the Northern Copper River Basin, especially Paxson, may also
experience a period of moderate to heavy snow Tuesday. However,
confidence was not high enough to put out an Advisory yet due to
finer details of where the best snow bands may set up. Paxson's
setup is more of an upslope flow set up with southerly flow
upsloping against the Alaska Range Tuesday afternoon into the day
on Wednesday.

Additional rounds of light snow are likely for Wednesday as the
Bering Sea low pressure system continues to push shortwaves over
Southcentral Alaska. Light snow will also be aided by the
weakening surface low pressure system moving inland from Prince
William Sound. Another low pressure system lifts into the
southcentral Gulf for Thursday. However, indications are that most
of the energy and precipitation with this system will be confined
to the eastern Gulf and Southeast Alaska. Stay tuned to the
forecast as minor adjustments are made to the upcoming system for
tomorrow/Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3)...

KEY MESSAGES...

1) A High Wind Warning is in effect for Adak and Atka, and a Wind
Advisory is in effect for Unalaska through Tuesday.

2) Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for the Pribilof Islands
through Tuesday evening.

3) Heavy snow/blowing snow for coastal Southwest Alaska with
possible blizzard conditions.

KEY MESSAGE 1...A High Wind Warning is in effect for Adak and
Atka and a Wind Advisory is in effect for Unalaska.

The overall eastern/northeastern shift in the Bering Sea storm,
verified by observations continues to result in slight changes to
the wind products for the Aleutians from Adak to Unalaska. Wind
gusts through this afternoon range from 35 to 45 mph. Leaning
toward a blend of short-term models in addition to the marine
observations and their trends continues forecaster confidence in
the current high wind warning and advisory products. The strongest
winds are expected from this evening through tomorrow afternoon
with southwest gusts ranging from 80 mph to 90 mph in Adak and
Atka and gusts up to 70 mph in Unalaska. The axis of the strongest
winds has shifted northeastward toward Adak and Atka consistently
in the past and current model runs. This early week low remains
quasi-stationary through mid-week bringing continued gusty winds
and precipitation to the Central Aleutians.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Winter Weather Advisory in effect for the
Pribilof Islands through Tuesday evening.

This early week Bering Sea low moves west of the Pribilof Islands
today into Wednesday. As the low moves northward, its front will
bring southeasterly to easterly winds to the Pribilofs tonight
through tomorrow evening. The wind gusts for the NBM 95th
percentile as well as the GFS, NAM and HiRes models consistently
exceed 60 mph during this time with the strongest winds from
tomorrow morning through the afternoon when gusts range from 65
mph to 75 mph. Temperatures briefly rise above freezing during the
front's arrival before returning to just below freezing. During
this time, the precipitation type will remain as snow due to high
snowfall rates continuing to bring cooler air aloft to the
surface. Additionally, falling and blowing snow is likely during
these strong winds causing low visibility. Snowfall accumulations
ranging from 4 to 6 inches with 1/2 mile visibility is expected.
Blowing snow concerns will continue after the snowfall ends. After
tomorrow and into Wednesday, there are indications the low will
stall just north of the Island before moving toward the Southwest
coast. Regardless of the late-week track, this low will continue
to bring gusty winds and periods of wintry precipitation to the
Pribilofs through mid-week.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Heavy snow/blowing snow for coastal Southwest
Alaska with possible blizzard conditions.

Temperatures across the Interior Southwest remain in the single
digits below zero. Cold temperatures will remain over the region
as offshore winds persist into late this evening. As the front
from the Bering Low moves northward, southerly to easterly winds
will dominate the overnight to early Wednesday morning time frame.
Steady snowfall and high winds are expected. The greatest snowfall
amounts and highest wind gusts remain in the Kuskokwim Delta
Coast and Nunivak Island where blowing snow will create whiteout
conditions frequently this evening into tomorrow afternoon.
Snowfall spreads into the Interior Kuskokwim Delta overnight into
Wednesday morning. Though wind gusts will be lower, blowing snow
causing reduced visibility is expected. Farther south, another
robust area of snow is expected in the Western Capes and Northern
Bristol Bay coast. Though snow totals have fluctuated, wind gusts
up to 45 mph will cause low visibility as early as tomorrow
morning.

Lastly, onshore winds for the Kuskokwim Delta from Tuesday into
Wednesday are expected. Due to the amount of sea ice into the
Bering and shorefast ice along the coast, the threat of coastal
impacts is minimal at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 - Friday through Monday)...

By Friday, a weak but well agreed upon low pressure system will
be stationed over the northern Gulf of Alaska, likely promoting
unsettled conditions with onshore easterly flow into the Western
Prince William Sound and precipitation. A similarly weak ridge
over the Southern Alaska Peninsula will be weakening further and
retreating to the northern Pacific, making way for the next system
to enter the Bering. A strong low over the Kamchatka Peninsula
Friday morning will have pushed a fairly strong front into the
Central Bering and Aleutians. Agreement is mixed on whether or not
a subsequent low will form along the triple-point of this front,
which would work to increase its effects across the region. By
Friday morning, the front will be sweeping a large swath of strong
southerly winds across much of the Chain, and by later Friday
morning, pushing a new precipitation pattern into Southwest
Alaska. By Friday afternoon, agreement remains strong that the
Kamchatka low shifts into the Northern Bering, allowing the front
to orient favorably for strong onshore winds into Southwest Alaska
as well as continued precipitation across the area.

Uncertainty arises on Saturday with the potential for smaller
lows to move through the Bering. These would increase winds and
precipitation chances for wherever they move over. Uncertainty for
Southcentral is a little better, with a low forming somewhere in
the northern Gulf, allowing for snowfall for the coast and
potentially inland as well. The picture will become more clear
overtime as guidance gets a better feel for the forecast. By
Sunday morning, agreement degrades further with some solutions
bringing the ridge back in over the Southern Alaska Peninsula and
another potent low moving near the Kamchatka Peninsula. Another,
slower front may be entering the Western Bering and Aleutians near
Shemya by Monday morning, with Southwest Alaska to shift back
into a more benign inactive pattern.

-CL

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Stratus is holding firm over northern Cook Inlet leading
to continued MVFR ceilings. The ceilings should lift some late
this afternoon or evening as drier air filters in from the west.
There is an outside chance for some visibility reduction in fog
overnight if the clouds clear out enough, but if that happens the
air will likely be dry enough to keep the fog from developing,
hence just an outside chance. The next front moves into the area
Tuesday bringing in potential for low level wind shear during the
day with northerly surface winds and southeasterly winds aloft.
These southeasterly winds aloft will also mitigate snowfall during
the day Tuesday, but then snow, and MVFR to IFR conditions, are
expected by late Tuesday afternoon and into the evening as the
cross-barrier winds subside.

&&