Gale Warning 134, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
402 PM AKST Fri Feb 6 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Today
through Monday morning)...

Calm conditions and clear skies continue across much of
Southcentral this afternoon as an upper level ridge lifts north
out of the Gulf and over southern Alaska. Persistent fog across
the Copper River Basin likely remains through tonight into
Saturday morning as the region remains under the influence of the
ridge with calm winds and weak flow aloft. This setup will
similarly promote potential patchy fog formation tonight into
Saturday morning across the Western Kenai, Anchorage, and MatSu.

Meanwhile, a large vertically stacked low in the northeast
Pacific continues to slowly drift to the northeast. Numerous
shortwaves along the eastern periphery of the larger trough rotate
northwards into the Gulf through the weekend as the main low in
the Northeast Pacific tracks eastward. The first of such waves
will continue to track west across the Gulf this evening and
overnight tonight, sending a front across Kodiak Island beginning
late this evening. Kodiak Island can expect steady low elevation
rain and mountain snow through Saturday morning along with gusty
northerly winds. The forecast remains largely on track for the
weakening front to reach the Gulf coast early Saturday morning,
bringing rain at sea level and snow to higher elevations. Unlike
storms from the past several days, precipitation will be uniformly
light.

A trough digging southward across northern Alaska Saturday
through Saturday night will lead to low level southerly flow over
Southcentral, helping to gradually advect moisture and light
precipitation inland. There could be some mixed precipitation at
the start for the western Kenai, Anchorage and the Mat Valley.
However, as the atmosphere saturates expect a transition to all
snow.

A short-wave trough crossing the Bering Sea will then arrive in
Southcentral Sunday night. Model spread is large on the track and
shape of this trough. Guidance also disagrees on whether this
trough phases with the Interior Arctic trough. Nonetheless,
chances are high that this trough will act upon the moisture in
place and lead to heavier snowfall Sunday night through Monday.
Low level southwest flow favors Anchorage, the Matanuska Valley,
the eastern Susitna Valley, and the Denali Highway to Paxson
corridor up along the Alaska Range for accumulating snow. The best
window for accumulating snow looks to be Sunday afternoon through
Monday afternoon. Stay tuned, as the uncertainty in the upper
levels leads to low confidence in snow totals at this point in
time. Meanwhile, the arrival of cooler air with the trough will
lead to lowering snow levels for coastal areas, with potential for
snow to get all the way down to sea level by Sunday night or
Monday.

-SEB/JH

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3:)...

Key Message: A High Wind Watch has been issued for the Central
Aleutians (including Adak and Atka) for Sunday morning through
Sunday evening. Southeast winds of 45 to 60 mph with gusts between
75 and 85 mph are possible.

Discussion:

As of this afternoon, a 995 mb quasi-stationary and dissipating
low is situated near the Pribilof Islands, which is bringing light
rain and snow with periods of very low ceilings to the area.
Meanwhile, to the west, a weak occluded front is progressing
across the Western Aleutians and into the Central Aleutians. The
expectation for the front is for it to shear apart as it moves
eastward and further elongates as its upper level support lifts to
the north.

Next, a gale force Kamchatka front sweeps across the Western
Aleutians Saturday morning. The parent low's corresponding upper
low looks to have vorticity maxima rounding the circulation as the
500 mb pattern re-orients itself more into a well defined
negatively tilted trough that digs southward over the North
Pacific by Sunday morning. The robust upper level support helps to
drive a storm force low pressure system with hurricane force
gusts into Adak and Atka Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon.
In anticipation of this system, a High Wind Watch has been issued
for the Central Aleutians for winds of 45 to 60 mph with gusts
between 75 and 85 mph are possible. It appears that most of the
precipitation associated with the front will fall in the form of
rain, but cold air aloft leading to falling snow levels in the
wake of the front could transition rain to wet snow for Adak and
Atka. Depending on timing of precipitation transition and strength
of winds on the backside of the system, a brief period of
blizzard-like conditions with low visibilities cannot be ruled
out.

The story does not end there. As the first system lifts northward
across the Bering, retrogrades northwestward and weakens, a
stronger system is right on its heels. Another lobe of the large
upper level trough complex digs once again, which brings strong
diffluence over the Central Aleutians beginning Monday morning to
midday Monday. This trough digs further, again takes a negative
tilt, and forms a well defined upper level low over the Western
Aleutians. By this time, the upper levels, at least south of the
Aleutian Chain, becomes more zonal with a couple of shortwaves
rippling through the mean flow. Although forecaster confidence
decreases Tuesday into Wednesday as model solutions diverge on
timing and placement of the surface low, models are roughly on the
same page regarding placement of the front - which will be the
most impactful of the two features. The global models depict the
powerful front sweeping the Central Aleutians Tuesday, and then
pivoting northeastward towards the Southwest Alaska coast, which
sets up the possibility of widespread blizzard conditions for
Southwest Alaska heading into Tuesday to Wednesday.

-AM

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 - Tuesday through
Friday)...

Starting in the Gulf of Alaska, a once complex low pressure system
looks to weaken and open into a trough centered over the Southern
Gulf. The core of energy looks to be exiting to the east by Monday
morning, leaving Southcentral Alaska in a unsettled pattern
through Tuesday morning. By Tuesday morning, a front moving over
the Western Alaska Range with some of the model guidance
suggesting a low to form near Kodiak Island then tracking
northeast into mainland Southcentral. Agreement seems fair at this
point for a low to develop. The expected track into Southcentral
may shift, with the general expectation currently being the low
moving over Kenai Tuesday night. A subsequent front moving over
the Alaska Peninsula Tuesday, may develop another low pressure
system near Kodiak again by late Tuesday/early Wednesday.
Progression of this system is still uncertain, with some solutions
intensifying the low in the northern Gulf through Thursday night.

Looking out west, several low pressure systems associated with the
aforementioned frontal boundaries will enter the Bering Sea early
next week. By Tuesday morning, the second low pressure system
will have crossed into the Central Bering, west of the Pribilof
Islands, and may bottom out. This low has potential to produce
another round of moderate to heavy rain for the Aleutians and
Alaska Peninsula in addition to further potential for strong wind
gusts in excess of 75 mph as it entered the Bering previously. By
Wednesday morning, model agreement has improved slightly, with
solutions trending more towards a easterly track. Agreement is
good that the low will gradually weaken shifting slowly and
steadily eastward.

Weak agreement for yet another low pressure system entering the
Southwest Bering by Thursday morning.

CL/LM

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR and light and variable winds will persist through the
rest of this afternoon. Fog may develop this evening into the
overnight hours as flow aloft weakens with a shortwave ridge
moving overhead. There is uncertainty when exactly fog may form
and it may be similar to the pattern this morning where fog was
very localized and patchy in nature. If fog does develop, it will
begin to lift by late morning Saturday with predominant VFR
conditions returning.

&&