Brisk Wind Advisory 94, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
504 AM AKDT Mon Mar 30 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A weak surface trough extends between a decaying low west of Cape
Newenham and a second low developing in the southwestern Gulf.
This trough is the focus for lift and moisture advection,
resulting in areas of rain and snow across Kodiak Island. With
temperatures ranging from 32 to 36 degrees through much of the
overnight hours, precipitation along the immediate coast of Kodiak
Island has fallen as rain or a mix of rain and snow. However, the
precipitation has been mainly all snow for locations only a couple
hundred feet above sea level. Area webcams around the island show
wet ground for places like Kodiak City and snow covered ground and
roads south and west of Kodiak Airport.

The precipitation is likely to remain a rain/snow mix for coastal
locations through this afternoon as temperatures remain in the
lower to mid 30s. That said, with no additional warm air
advection and temperatures aloft cooling through the day, any
heavier precipitation that does fall along the immediate coast
will likely fall in the form of snow. In other words,
precipitation type will likely be determined by its intensity.
Given this, total snowfall amounts will be tricky to forecast,
with little to no snow accumulation possible for coastal areas and
up to 10 inches of snow for areas just a couple hundred feet above
sea level, including areas around Womens Bay and along Larsen Bay
and Pasagshak Roads. The precipitation will become more showery
in nature by afternoon, with any lingering rain/snow mix ending
tonight.

Winds will become northeasterly and increase into the 25 to 40
mph range by later this afternoon as the low further strengthens.
For locations that do see prolonged snowfall, blowing snow is not
anticipated due to the warmer temperatures hovering near 32
degrees.

Elsewhere, much of the rest of Southcentral will remain dry and
feel no effects from this system. However, the easterly to
southeasterly flow coming around the extreme southern Gulf to
northern North Pacific low will cause some upslope snow showers
along the eastern facing slopes of the Kenai Mountains and along
the mountain ranges of Western Prince William Sound through
Monday morning. The low pressure system responsible for the bout
of mixed precipitation across Kodiak Island today will track
farther southeast for Tuesday with another dry day in store area
wide. Wednesday will feature more of the same, as a high pressure
ridge builds into the Gulf. As the low exits and an upper-level
wave moves south from the interior, expect an uptick in gap winds
for typical locations late Tuesday into Wednesday.

The next weather-maker, a front associated with a North Pacific
low tracking south of the Alaska Peninsula, arrives to Kodiak
Island late Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

IR satellite imagery this morning shows a broad, occluded, and
decaying surface low drifting southward offshore of Goodnews Bay
and Togiak while a triple point low continues to deepen well south
of the Alaska Peninsula. Snowfall associated with the northern-
most low is ending from north to south, with snow tapering now for
Bethel and the Kuskokwim Coast. Radar returns and surface
observations still show snow falling across the Bristol Bay
region, where an additional 1 to 3 inches of snowfall is in store
through noon today. By noon today, the lingering low moving across
the Bristol Bay area opens to a trough of low pressure as its
upper level energy phases with the triple point low now moving
across the western Gulf. A trough/surface boundary will still
exist across the Alaska Peninsula through the afternoon as the
Gulf low becomes quasi-stationary, continuing light snowfall for
the area through the evening hours.

Attention then shifts early Tuesday morning to a North Pacific
low approaching the Western Aleutians as its front lifts northward
towards the rest of the Aleutian Chain. Models have come into
fairly good agreement on the timing of the front and the eastward
track just to the south of the Aleutian Chain through the short-
term forecast period. Precipitation along the front steadily
progresses eastward across the Aleutian Chain through Tuesday and
along the Alaska Peninsula through Wednesday. The onset of
precipitation for Adak and Atka will likely begin as a rain/snow
mix before transitioning to plain rain as warmer, southerly flow
erodes away the colder airmass in place, causing snow levels to
steadily rise. Farther east, the eastern Aleutians and Alaska
Peninsula likely sees more snow as the system further occludes
through Wednesday. High end small craft winds with widespread
gale- force gusts along the front can be expected through Tuesday
before the front begins to weaken Wednesday.

-AM/JH

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through
Sunday)...

The active storm tracks through the long-term period remain south
of the Mainland, with several low pressure systems traversing
eastwards across the North Pacific and into the Gulf. This will
continue to keep much of the Mainland dry through midweek with
most active weather being confined to the Aleutian Chain, Alaska
Peninsula, and Kodiak Island in the form of modest winds and a mix
of rain and snow. By Friday, a low developing along the triple
point may form in the western Gulf, which would promote a more
active pattern for Southcentral Alaska. Easterly winds to increase
along the Gulf coast into next weekend, with precipitation
spreading along the region as well. Some stronger northerly gap
winds through typical locations will remain possible through the
period as these systems track into the Gulf. Temperatures trending
warmer and approaching seasonal averages across Southwest and
Southcentral Alaska look to remain steady through the long-term.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&