Brisk Wind Advisory 78, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
346 PM AKDT Tue Mar 17 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
(Days 1 through 3)...

This afternoon, a positively tilted upper level trough located
over coastal Southcentral Alaska and the Gulf is beginning to
close off into an upper level low. Upstream of this trough is a
shortwave moving southeastward from the Bering Strait. At the
surface, satellite imagery shows a compact low located around 150
miles southeast of Cordova, which is sending clouds and showery
weather to the southern Prince William Sound area and Middleton
Island. Have introduced slight chance of snow in lee of the Kenai
Mountains and Western Chugach as some of the higher resolution
models show some moisture spilling over the mountains this
afternoon/evening. That said, given the current relatively large
dewpoint depression from Anchorage to Cooper Landing, any snowfall
would likely fall as just a few flurries. Wind wise, gap winds
through typical locations will remain elevated through the short
term as arctic high pressure situates itself in the interior and
low pressure persists across the northern Gulf. Of note, this
means gales will continue from Kamishak Gap and across the Barren
Islands through most of the forecast period.

Models are in good agreement that the aforementioned shortwave
moves over Southwest Alaska and then over Kodiak Island heading
into Wednesday morning. This will help lift the existing Gulf
system to the north, regenerate a lee-side low and possibly return
some light snow to the coast starting late Wednesday and
continuing through early this weekend. Regarding snowfall
potential for at least the Prince William Sound and coastal
Southcentral Alaska on Wednesday, some models are struggling with
the low placement, though the GFS guidance is favored at the
moment since it is one of the few models that initialized the best
today. The NAM is the outlier as of now as it drifts the low
southward and keeps precipitation offshore. However, models are
generally on track in developing a front extending eastward from
the low Wednesday morning and then lifting it northward as the day
progresses, sending a wave of moisture towards the coast. Some
models, such as the GFS, break down the low into a complex low
pressure system and sends multiple waves of moisture towards the
coast. The placement and timing of these smaller lows are of
lesser confidence, and from here on, the models diverge. However,
there is potential for snowfall to spillover to areas in lee of
the mountains with each of these waves. Stay tuned.

-AM/CJ

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

The pattern remains the same as it has been, ridging in the
western Bering and troughing over southwest Alaska. Northerly gap
winds up to gale force in strength will continue to blow through
gaps and passes in the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula
areas through Friday due to cold air advection and troughing from
the north. Heavy freezing spray remains wherever winds are gusty
in the aforementioned regions. Wednesday has an upper level
Arctic low drop from the north, triggering a potential for light
snowfall in the Kuskokwim Delta and the East Bering. Snow showers
will also occur south of the Alaska Peninsula as the low dips. Colder
air will dive into the Southwest Mainland through Friday due to
the influence of the Arctic low. Low temperatures will once again
plummet into the negative teens for much of the mainland and
potentially the negative 20s for the Kuskokwim Delta and Lower
Kuskokwim Valley. Breezy winds will allow for very cold wind
chills below -30F in the Kuskokwim regions.

-JAR

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through
Tuesday)...

Generally, the central Aleutians, the Pribilofs and the Bering
Sea will be under a ridge of high pressure for much of the long
term. Across the far west, rain/snow and winds up to 40 mph from
frontal passages will move across the western Aleutians. Across
Southwest Mainland, the eastern Bering Sea and the Alaska
Peninsula, expect northerly flow to persist with shortwaves
troughs that could bring periods of light snow showers. These
showers will be more probable near and off the ice edge in the
Bering, higher elevations, and near coastlines. Models differ with
the east/west extent of this flow regime and it is possible
(though low probability) that showers could move as far west as
the Pribilof Islands at times this weekend and the eastern
Aleutians near Unalaska/Nikolski. Winds through the eastern Bering
Sea/Bristol Bay and through the terrain gaps along the Alaska
Peninsula will likely continue to remain gusty with the cold air
advecting across the area. Friday morning appears to be coldest
day over this week for Southwest Alaska/eastern Bering and
temperatures will likely linger into Saturday.

Out east towards Mainland Southcentral, low pressure will remain
in the Gulf of Alaska through the long-term period. This will
maintain cold, dry, northerly flow with enhanced gap winds through
the favored terrain and passes. Any snowfall should remain light
and confined primarily to along the coast and coastal mountain
ranges. Temperatures may start to moderate a little bit this
weekend for Southcentral, but will still be below normal for this
time of year.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and northerly winds to continue through the
TAF period. Ongoing gusts at or above 25 knots to diminish into
the 15 to 20 knot range by this evening, then persisting into
tonight.

&&