Brisk Wind Advisory 35, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
443 PM AKST Sat Feb 7 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Today
through Tuesday morning)...

A vertically stacked low continues to sit in the center of a
large cyclonic circulation extending from the northeast Pacific to
the Gulf of Alaska. The frontal system from this morning has
continued to weaken this afternoon as it pushes inland, with dry
air aloft preventing any light precipitation seen on radar across
the Western Kenai, Anchorage, and the Matanuska Valley from
reaching the surface. An Arctic trough digging southward across
northern Alaska has induced southerly steering flow over
Southcentral, allowing moisture and precipitation to spread inland
through this evening. Expect light snow to continue to spread
across much of the Copper River Valley, aided by upslope flow
along the Wrangell Mountains. Chances for snow will increase
overnight tonight from Anchorage to the Matanuska Valley as low
level southwest flow strengthens ahead of the Arctic trough.

Forecast confidence continues to remain low for Sunday through
Monday, with large model spread in the track of a short-wave
trough currently over the Bering Sea. The track of this short-
wave will then affect how it interacts with the Arctic trough to
the north and whether there is any phasing of troughs into a
stronger feature. No matter which solution is correct, expect
precipitation from eastern Prince William Sound to the Copper
River Basin, with southwest flow and colder temperatures leading
to potentially significant snow accumulation along the Tok Cutoff
up to Mentasta Pass. Mainly rain will continue for coastal
locations, though a slow cooling of the airmass should allow
precipitation to mix with or change to snow in Valdez Sunday into
Monday. The low confidence part of the forecast is the
precipitation forecast for the Kenai Peninsula, Anchorage, and the
Mat-Su which will be heavily dependent on the track of the
aforementioned short-wave. Sunday through Sunday night is the most
likely time period for accumulating snow, especially for
Anchorage and the Matanuska Valley. The trough(s) will exit
eastward by Monday or Monday night with precipitation diminishing
from west to east across Southcentral.

-JH/SEB

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3)...

KEY MESSAGES...

1) A High Wind Warning for the Central Aleutians on Sunday

2) A Kamchatka low moves through the Bering Monday / Tuesday

KEY MESSAGE 1... A High Wind Warning for the Central Aleutians on
Sunday

A 960 mb North Pacific low moves into the western Bering Sea west
of Adak through the day tomorrow. This will result in hurricane
force winds gusting to 85 mph from tomorrow afternoon through the
evening hours from Adak to Atka. Forecaster experience and
pattern recognition agrees with the good model agreement that the
strongest winds arrive in the Central Aleutians mid-morning
tomorrow and then switch from southeast wind direction to
southwest by mid- afternoon tomorrow. Most of the precipitation
with this system will fall as rain. As the winds change direction,
however, snow levels simultaneously fall and a mix of rain and
snow showers for late Sunday is most likely in this area.
Reductions in visibility is expected during the rain/snow mix
though warm surface temperatures will be too warm for much, if
any, snow accumulation.

KEY MESSAGE 2... A Kamchatka low moves through the Bering
Monday / Tuesday

A 950 mb Kamchatka low moves northward through the Western
Aleutians and into the Bering Sea Monday and Tuesday. It will
deepen as it crosses into the Bering Sea to a 940 mb low as the
trough digs deeper and the low becomes vertically stacked. Its
front reaches the Central and Eastern Aleutians Monday afternoon
bringing southeasterly winds through the evening hours. These
winds stretch into the Alaska Peninsula and Southwest Alaska
Monday into Tuesday. As the low deepens, hurricane force winds
remain in the Central Aleutians with storm force increasing to
hurricane force in the Eastern Aleutians through the day Monday.
The Pribilof Islands could experience a prolonged period of storm
force winds beginning Monday evening and lasting into at least
Tuesday evening. Precipitation during this time will range from
rain to frozen precipitation to snow; though forecaster experience
is leaning toward a snowier period of precipitation.

Conditions in Southwest Alaska won't fair any better with this
early week storm. The aforementioned front reaches the Bristol Bay
coast Tuesday morning bringing mixed precipitation and strong
winds to the region through Tuesday evening. These conditions will
occur along the Bering Sea coastline Tuesday afternoon into early
Wednesday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 - Tuesday through
Friday)...

The beginning of the long term consists of a strong surface low
in the Bering Sea with a robust corresponding upper low sitting in
the crest of a deep longwave trough with multiple ripples of
enhanced vorticity and shortwaves rounding the trough. At the
surface, upper level support downstream of the trough over the
Gulf will induce cyclogenesis somewhere near Kodiak Island and the
Kenai Peninsula, bringing a plethora of moisture to coastal
Southcentral.

By Thursday, the amplification of the 500 mb flow out west
flattens a bit, with a transient ridge entering the picture as the
longwave trough moves eastward. The upper level flow sharpens
again heading into Friday. During this time, the aforementioned
Bering low is forced to move eastward towards Bristol Bay and the
Alaska Peninsula.

-AM

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will continue until the
possibility of light snow showers after 03Z. Snow will become
more likely by 09Z and MVFR conditions will be possible through
Sun night. Snow looks to taper off Sunday morning, though some
showers may linger into the early afternoon.

&&