Brisk Wind Advisory 33, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
503 PM AKST Mon Feb 2 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A series of upper-level shortwaves continues to move inland from
the northern Gulf helping to enhance shower activity along a
stalled and weakening front draped along the coast. Temperatures
have warmed into to the mid 30s to lower 40s for locations along
coastal Prince William Sound and eastern Kenai, allowing for the
precipitation to fall as rain. Father inland, temperatures are in
the teens in the Copper River Basin and 20s and 30s from Homer
north into the Mat-Su Valleys. Any precipitation that is making it
over the coastal mountains is falling, and will continue to fall,
as a very light wintry mix. Snow levels are currently around
2,000 ft.

The forecast looks on track a much stronger front will lift
across the Gulf tonight into Tuesday morning with models
developing a second surface low just off the southern coast of
Kodiak Island by mid-morning Tuesday. The pressure gradient will
rapidly strengthen over the western Gulf with widespread gales and
a swath of storm force winds developing by Tuesday morning from
Middleton Island to the Barren Islands and Shelikof Strait. This
east-northeast oriented swath of strong winds is an ideal
direction to see strong winds across parts of Kodiak Island. Wind
gusts up to 60 mph will work across the northern end of Kodiak
Island, with typical spots helping to channel the winds. In
addition, the warm and moist airmass will bring periods of
moderate to heavy rainfall for Kodiak Island. Modest rainfall
amounts are also expected for the immediate Gulf coastal areas
along the eastern Kenai Peninsula.

Lee-side areas north and west of the coastal mountains continue
to look mostly downsloped with a dry northerly wind through
Tuesday, likely keeping any freezing rain in the morning hours to
just a few scattered sprinkles. By Tuesday evening, however, flow
aloft will become more southerly and some stronger shortwaves
moving over should be enough to kick some light rain into the
western Kenai, Anchorage, and potentially the Mat-Su Valleys.
Warmer air will also likely push into Valdez and the southern half
of the Copper River Basin by tomorrow afternoon, allowing any
snow to mix with and change to rain for Valdez and, perhaps, a
wintry mix along the Edgerton Highway.

The warm and wet pattern along the coast will continue through
the week as multiple storms move through. Well above normal
temperatures will continue everywhere in Southcentral.

- TM/CJ

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: This afternoon through Thursday evening)...

Key Messages:

1) A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for the Northern Bristol
Bay Coast and Inland Bristol Bay from 3 AM to 9 PM AKST Tuesday
for expected mixed precipitation in the form of freezing rain and
snow.

2) Freezing rain and snow possible along the Kuskokwim Delta Coast
for Wednesday and Thursday.

3) A warming trend ensues across mainland Southwest Alaska the
rest of today through Wednesday.

Southerly to southeasterly flow in the lower to middle levels
will ensue across much of Southwest Alaska Tuesday through the end
of this week as warmer air brought in from the North Pacific.
Temperatures will continue to be slow to warm above freezing
across most of Southwest until Tuesday night. An upper-level
disturbance will lift northward from the North Pacific to over the
Bristol Bay area by late Tuesday morning. Warmer air aloft will
accompany this disturbance. Thus, a wintry mix of freezing rain
and snow is likely across Dillingham and northward to Koliganek
late Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening before temperatures
warm further at the surface. A Winter Weather Advisory has been
issued for the Northern Bristol Bay Coast and Inland Bristol Bay
to bring awareness to the freezing threat. Highest accumulations
of ice, up to a tenth of inch, look to occur across the New
Stuyahok and Koliganek areas Tuesday. However, any amount of ice
accrual could be hazardous.

A warming trend is expected through Wednesday. Much of Bristol
Bay will reach above the freezing mark by Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning with any leftover precipitation turning to rain.
A wintry mix of freezing rain and snow is possible across the
Kuskokwim Delta Coast both Wednesday and Thursday as additional
upper-level disturbances lift north from the North Pacific and
through the eastern Bering Sea as warmer air works in aloft.

The coldest area of the domain will be the central/western Bering
Sea, as well as the Central/Western Aleutian Chain, thanks in
part due to cold northern flow from Russia. This cold northerly
flow will continue through much of the week as snow shower
activity also continues. The front of a North Pacific low will
pivot westward across the southern Alaska Peninsula on Wednesday
bringing snow turning to a rain/snow mix to locations such as Cold
Bay and Nelson Lagoon. This feature will help to enhance snow
showers across Adak and Atka through Thursday as the surface low
lifts into the Bering by then. By Thursday evening, an occluded
low near the Kamchatka Peninsula sends its front to the vicinity
of the Western Aleutians. Due to this low being in its
occluded/weakening phase, cold air looks to remain in place across
Shemya for snow showers to be maintained.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 - Friday through Monday)...

Late this week, the upper-level longwave pattern appears fairly
similar to today with a ridge over western North America extending
up into mainland Alaska with a broad, complex low pressure system
sitting several hundred miles south of Kodiak Island. The main
difference will be that deep longwave troughing over the far
western Bering Sea will promote a much stormier pattern heading
into the weekend and early next week. The complex low south of
Kodiak Island lifts into the Gulf through the weekend, bringing
wet, rainy weather along the coast from the Pacific side of the
Alaska Peninsula up to the north Gulf coast. A deformation band
associated with troughing to the north/northwest of the low may
allow precipitation to spread into the southern mainland in the
form of rain, freezing rain, or possibly snow for the coldest
locations.

The main feature to track in the long term, however, is a compact,
moderately-deep low moving up from the North Pacific into the
vicinity of the eastern Aleutians/Alaska Peninsula on Sunday. This
low, depending on track, could lead to various hazards across the
Aleutians, Bering Sea, and Southwest Alaska, including high winds
and blowing snow/blizzard conditions. Strong winds will be
associated with a sting jet on the south side of the low, which
has the potential to bring 75 mph wind gusts to the Eastern
Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula if the track shown by the EC and
GEM verifies. However, the alternative solution shown by the GFS
keeps the low south of the peninsula, which would spare the region
from the strongest winds and impacts. There is a decent potential
for the low to track into the Bering Sea, though, towards
Southwest Alaska. The low looks to quickly lose its tap of warm
air as it moves north, which means precipitation mainly in the
form of snow along the Southwest Alaska coast would be easily
blown around leading to significantly reduced visibility. As the
track is uncertain at this point, there is low confidence in the
resulting impacts at this lead time. The active storm track
continues into next week with another compact low developing south
of the Aleutians on Monday, with further potential to skirt the
Aleutians or track north into the Bering Sea.

Quesada

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions are expected to continue through the
period...though a few brief drops to MVFR are possible as
elevated showers pass through this afternoon and evening. Another
round of showers expected Tuesday afternoon and evening with a
stronger front lifting north over the terminal. Near freezing
temperatures today will rise above freezing by Tuesday,
mitigating any light freezing rain concerns with any showers
passing over the terminal. North to northeasterly winds will
increase by 12-15Z Tuesday morning ahead of the incoming front.

&&