Brisk Wind Advisory 101, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
442 AM AKDT Sat Apr 11 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A shortwave rounding the base of a broad upper level trough over
the Bering will move east into the southern Mainland today.
Southwesterly flow aloft and a shortwave lifting into Southcentral
will spread light snow over the western Alaska Range and into the
Susitna Valley late this evening. Colder air will stream into the
region as well, with the leading shortwave driving quickly into
the eastern Gulf by early Sunday morning. With a lee-side low
developing and a negatively tilted trough taking shape,
widespread snow will fill in quickly across Southcentral early
Sunday morning. Forecast confidence is high for accumulating snow
Sunday morning due to colder air in place aloft and precipitation
starting prior to sunrise. As temperatures rise through the day,
snow will likely begin to melt on roadways and accumulation will
become limited for the lower elevations. Higher elevations
however, may continue to see accumulation through the afternoon
and into Sunday night. The Mat-Su Valleys are more likely to
switch over to a mix or rain due to some downslope warming off of
the Alaska Range and Talkeetnas as flow aloft becomes
northwesterly in the afternoon and evening. At this time however,
the Anchorage and Eagle River Hillsides may get higher snowfall
rates as upslope flow really kicks in on the western Chugach. The
main uncertainty is whether or not the precipitation is more over
the high peaks or low enough to impact the road network.

Moving into Monday, the Copper Valley will continue to receive
some light precipitation, mainly over the mountains and the
southern Valley as the upper low swings into southwest Yukon
Territory. Heading into Tuesday, ridging will redevelop and
precipitation will come to an end.

Of note with this storm as well will be the winds for Kodiak,
southern Kachemak Bay, and the Barren Islands starting Sunday
afternoon and continuing through Monday. The decent cold air push
and strong shortwave will bring widespread gales to these areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

Currently, a front is situated from the Eastern Aleutians to the
Kuskokwim Delta. Fog and low stratus are present over Bristol Bay
and the Alaska Peninsula ahead of the front. This front is
bringing a mix of rain and snow with snowfall more likely at night
due to temperatures around freezing. By this afternoon, the front
will move inland and will be reinforced by a strong upper trough,
leading to more precipitation. Due to diurnal temperature swings,
Bristol Bay and the Lower Kuskokwim Valley will see a full
transition to rain or a rain/snow mix during the day.
Precipitation will linger through Sunday due to upper troughing,
but will become more scattered.

The Bering will be fairly calm due to ridging, but a Kamchatka
low will send a front to the Western Aleutians by Sunday
afternoon. Warm air advection with this front means that the
precipitation will be mostly in the form of rain, but the leading
edge of the front could see snow or a mix of rain/snow. The front
will progress eastward early next week, pushing into the Pribilof
Islands and the Central Aleutians by Monday. Gusty winds and
snowfall could cause blowing snow for a few hours in the Pribilof
Islands before temperatures warm above freezing. This scenario is
uncertain and will depend on when the front arrives. Meanwhile,
the mainland will have drier northerly flow and cooler
temperatures due to ridging.

-JAR

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through
Friday)...

Upper level troughing over the Panhandle and high pressure over
the eastern Bering Sea will lead to northerly flow over most of
southern mainland Alaska at the start of the forecast period.
Mostly dry conditions will be present with elevated winds through
the Barren Islands and Kodiak Island, which will diminish by
Wednesday.

A Kamchatka low with embedded shortwaves will transit the Bering
Sea, spreading rain showers over the Aleutians Tuesday and
Southwest AK Wednesday and Thursday. There is uncertainty among
models regarding timing of trough progression, but precipitation
is expected to work into Southcentral Alaska Thursday and Friday.
Temperatures will remain near normal for the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...The morning hours are still vulnerable to IFR to MVFR
conditions mainly due to stratus and fog, but there should be
improvement to VFR conditions as the day warms. Snow is expected
to move over the terminal Saturday night into Sunday, bringing
periods of reduced visibility and potential for MVFR conditions.

&&