Special Weather Statement, NWS Aberdeen, SD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
122 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated storm (10-20%) late tonight into Saturday morning. A
Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) extends into Jones and Lyman Counties.
The main threats are for hail up to 1 inch and wind gusts of 60 mph.

- Smoke aloft is expected to persist the next several days, however
there is little potential for the smoke to get to the surface.

- Next best chance for moisture (35-55%) in the form of scattered
storms is late Saturday/early Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 121 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

There will be some lower chances for some showers and storms to
develop over northeastern SD and west central MN early this morning
as a front passes through. After the front moves through, high
surface pressure will be moving in, and will stick around through
the day. In combination with the lack of moisture in the atmosphere,
the high pressure will help to keep showers and storms from
developing. Colder air has moved in behind that boundary and will
help to keep temperatures slightly cooler than yesterday, with highs
in the upper 70s to mid 80s. The upper-levels continue to have
northwest flow over SD through the weekend and into next week. This
northwest flow will continue to move in wildfire smoke aloft from
the fires out in the Pacific Northwest. However, with very little
mixing, this smoke will not make it to the surface and only create
hazy skies.

There will be some upper-level shortwaves that move over
SD in the coming days. These shortwaves will provide some energy
that could help showers and storms to develop over central and
northeastern SD. The next chance for one of these shortwaves will be
Friday night into Saturday morning. Additionally, a low level jet
will be developing over western and central SD, and will help with
the development of storms and showers. Models have been fairly
consistent that something could develop during that time over
portions of south central SD. However, there is some variability in
timing and how widespread precipitation will be due to the lack of
moisture in the atmosphere and where/when the models bring some
moisture up into central SD. With the variability in the models as
well as concerns about if, when, and where there will be moisture,
there continues to be lower confidence for storms Friday night into
Saturday morning. If storms are able to develop, there is a marginal
rick (level 1 of 5) for them to become severe, with the main
hazards of hail up to 1 inch and wind gusts of 60 mph possible.

Temperatures will warm slightly Saturday and Sunday, with highs in
the low 80s to low 90s. The next big chance for showers and storms
to occur is Sunday evening into Monday morning. There looks to be
some more moisture moving into SD aloft Sunday. That, in combination
with a boundary moving through and a bit of instability from the
warmer temperatures, will help to develop showers and storms. Models
still vary the location and timing of the showers and storms, which
lowers confidence slightly. Despite this lower confidence, there is
still a 35-55% chance of precipitation into Monday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected through Friday evening.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...10

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
330 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

SDZ019>023-080830-
Clark-Codington-Grant-Hamlin-Deuel-
330 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered development of showers and storms this morning in front of
a cold front. Storms should dissipate once the front moves through.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

SDZ045-048-080830-
Jones-Lyman-
330 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

There is a Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for isolated storms to become
severe if they are able to develop tonight into Saturday morning. The
main threats will be hail up to 1 inch and wind gusts of 60 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>018-033>037-051-080830-
Traverse-Big Stone-Corson-Campbell-McPherson-Brown-Marshall-Roberts-
Walworth-Edmunds-Day-Dewey-Potter-Faulk-Spink-Stanley-Sully-Hughes-
Hyde-Hand-Buffalo-
330 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026 /230 AM MDT Fri Aug 7 2026/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for west central Minnesota,
central South Dakota, north central South Dakota and northeast
South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
521 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

SDZ011-020-021-071045-
Grant SD-Day SD-Codington SD-
521 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN CODINGTON...
SOUTHEASTERN DAY AND WEST CENTRAL GRANT COUNTIES UNTIL 545 AM CDT...

At 521 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles northeast of Florence, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

The strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Dakota Sioux Casino around 535 AM CDT.
  Rauville around 540 AM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 4510 9737 4521 9727 4515 9693 4494 9703
TIME...MOT...LOC 1021Z 288DEG 21KT 4510 9722

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

12