Flash Flood Warning 7, NWS Aberdeen, SD

739 
WGUS73 KABR 310536
FFSABR

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1236 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

SDC065-117-310546-
/O.EXP.KABR.FF.W.0007.000000T0000Z-260731T0545Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Hughes SD-Stanley SD-
1236 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026 /1136 PM MDT Thu Jul 30 2026/

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 1245 AM CDT /1145 PM MDT/ EARLY
THIS MORNING FOR WESTERN HUGHES AND EASTERN STANLEY COUNTIES...

The heavy rain has ended. Flood waters have receded. Flooding is no
longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to heed remaining
road closures.

&&

LAT...LON 4439 10043 4441 10033 4440 10025 4433 10028
      4433 10042

$$

TMT

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
632 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Slight Risk (level 2 out of 5) for severe weather is in place
over portions of central and south central SD this afternoon and
tonight. A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather is in
place for the rest of the forecast area. The main hazard will be
wind gusts of 60-70 mph and hail of one inch in diameter.

- Through Friday morning, much of northeastern South Dakota and
western Minnesota could see around 1.5"-2" of rain. Localized areas
of 3" or more inches could be possible, and Flash Flooding will be
possible in places that see these higher end rainfall totals.

- Temperatures into the upper 90s to low 100s return over parts of
central and north central South Dakota this weekend. Temperatures
are set to cool down to below normal by the middle of next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 628 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Heavy rain and flooding continue across the forecast area,
especially across northeast SD and west central MN. Even as one
area of heavy rain moves or dissipates, there are more waiting
in the wings and expected to move through tonight. Heaviest rain
amounts have ranged from 5 to 7 inches across northern Day
county.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

The main challenges in this forecast package will continue to
revolve around the chances for severe weather and locally heavy
rainfall the remainder of today into tonight and Friday morning. Mid
afternoon satellite/radar imagery indicate ongoing active weather
across this forecast area. Showers and thunderstorms have continued
to evolve across northeast SD/west central MN early this afternoon
while the area of showers/storms the moved across south central SD
through the first half of the day have shifted into southeast SD.
development of more robust convection has taken place over the last
hour or so across parts of far south central SD, south of the I-90
corridor. This activity appears to be shifting east-southeast and
may clip our far south/southwest zones this afternoon where a Severe
Thunderstorm Watch has been issued until 9 PM CDT tonight.

The disturbance partly responsible for this active pattern today is
in the form of a mid level shortwave trough that is working into
western SD this afternoon. The lead shortwave ahead of this feature
was responsible for this mornings activity has shifting east and
southeast. This upper level disturbance is encountering a modestly
unstable air mass with MLCAPE values ranging between 2000-3000 J/kg.
So, there's enough instability for storms to continue. However, deep
layer shear remains mostly lacking across most of our CWA, outside
of far southern zones and perhaps near the ND/SD border region where
0-6 KM bulk shear values range between 25-30 kts. Weak flow in the
low to mid levels of the atmosphere have played havoc on the
evolution of convection and thus hi-res guidance has had a tough
time discerning what comes of all of this. Also, outflow boundaries
created by existing or earlier convection is also playing or will
play a role in future storms as the latter half of the afternoon and
evening wear on. So, best chances for severe weather for the
remainder of this event the rest of today and tonight will be across
parts of central and south central SD. Initial discrete cells will
be capable of large hail but with time, storms will evolve into more
clusters or linear mode and the threat will become damaging winds.
Perhaps the more widespread threat across most of the forecast area
will be locally heavy rainfall. A Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall
remains posted for most of the forecast area with our eastern half
of zones having the best chance for seeing 1-2 inches of rainfall.
Some localized amounts of 3 inches or more will be possible,
especially from parts of west central MN into east central SD south
and west into sections of the James Valley and far south central SD.
These area will have the best chance to see localized flash flooding
with any storms. The slow moving nature of this convection will only
help contribute further to the flooding possibilities.

The upper level disturbance shifts south and east of the area on
Friday. Lingering rains across our eastern zones will diminish by
midday leaving drier condition to settle in during the afternoon.
High pressure building in from the north will lead to breezy north
to northeast winds on Friday. Temperatures will remain close to
normal if not slightly below normal(especially eastern zones) on
Friday. Upper ridging is progged to build into the region through
the course of the upcoming weekend. This will bring back the heat to
the region, especially across central SD. Temperature progs indicate
those locations will be back into the 90s to around 100 degrees
Saturday into Sunday and to a certain extent on Monday. Southerly
flow returns and with a tighter gradient developing by late in the
weekend and a drier air mass, elevated fire weather conditions are
expected to develop across parts of central and north central SD.
After another fropa early next week, a cooler than normal air mass
will infiltrate the area by Tuesday through the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 628 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will deteriorate to IFR in heavy rain and
thunderstorms through tonight. Timing the slow moving storms has
lower confidence but precipitation is expected to exit between
15z and 18z Friday.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

UPDATE...20
DISCUSSION...Vipond
AVIATION...20

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
317 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

SDZ018-035>037-045-048-051-310830-
Spink-Hughes-Hyde-Hand-Jones-Lyman-Buffalo-
317 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central South Dakota and
northeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A Slight Risk for severe weather, a level 2 of 5 threat, is in place
today. Storms will be possible through the day, but the best chances
for severe weather come in the afternoon to evening time frame. The
main severe threat will be wind gusts of 60 to 70 miles per hour.
Hail of one inch in diameter will also be a threat west of the
Missouri River.

Additionally, storms may bring heavy rain to the region, potentially
leading to Flash Flooding. A Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall, a
level 2 of 4 threat, is in place today. Through Friday morning, up to
1 to 2 inches of rain may fall, with some localized amounts up to 3
inches possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MNZ039-046-SDZ005>011-016-017-019>023-034-310830-
Traverse-Big Stone-McPherson-Brown-Marshall-Roberts-Walworth-Edmunds-
Day-Potter-Faulk-Clark-Codington-Grant-Hamlin-Deuel-Sully-
317 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for west central Minnesota,
central South Dakota, north central South Dakota and northeast
South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A Marginal Risk for severe weather, a level 1 of 5 threat, is in
place today. Storms will be possible through the day, but the best
chances for severe weather come in the afternoon to evening time
frame. The main severe threat will be wind gusts of 60 to 70 miles
per hour.

Additionally, storms may bring heavy rain to the region, potentially
leading to Flash Flooding. A Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall, a
level 2 of 4 threat, is in place today. Through Friday morning, up to
1 to 2 inches of rain may fall, with some localized amounts up to 3
to 4 inches possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

SDZ033-310830-
Stanley-
317 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026 /217 AM MDT Thu Jul 30 2026/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A Slight Risk for severe weather, a level 2 of 5 threat, is in place
today. Storms will be possible through the day, but the best chances
for severe weather come in the afternoon to evening time frame. The
main severe threat will be wind gusts of 60 to 70 miles per hour.
Hail of one inch in diameter will also be a threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

SDZ003-004-015-310830-
Corson-Campbell-Dewey-
317 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026 /217 AM MDT Thu Jul 30 2026/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A Marginal Risk for severe weather, a level 1 of 5 threat, is in
place today. Storms will be possible through the day, but the best
chances for severe weather come in the afternoon to evening time
frame. The main severe threat will be wind gusts of 60 to 70 miles
per hour. Hail of one inch in diameter will also be a threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
519 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0506 PM     Flash Flood      1 SE Aberdeen           45.46N 98.48W
07/30/2026                   Brown              SD   Public

            Report from mPING: Street/road flooding;
            Street/road closed; Vehicles stranded.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
823 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     Rain             Pierpont                45.50N 97.83W
07/30/2026  E6.00 Inch       Day                SD   Public

            Multiple reports of 5-6 inches of rain
            measured in Pierpont. Radar estimates as of
            5 PM show pockets of 6-7 inches with more
            rain on the way.

&&

BC

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
826 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0658 PM     Rain             Faulkton                45.03N 99.13W
07/30/2026  M2.44 Inch       Faulk              SD   Public

            Measured in Faulkton at the time an Areal
            Flood Warning was issued for the area.

&&

BC

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
844 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0458 PM     Flash Flood      Roslyn                  45.50N 97.49W
07/30/2026                   Day                SD   Emergency Mngr

            Day County Emergency Manager reported
            Highway 33 closed North of US-12 due to
            rainfall. No additional specifics on
            location were given, so location is placed
            based on the Storm Total Precipitation. At
            the time of the report, roughly 4-6 inches
            of rain had fallen in and around Roslyn.

&&

BC

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
847 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0458 PM     Flash Flood      Pierpont                45.49N 97.84W
07/30/2026                   Day                SD   Emergency Mngr

            Day County Emergency Manager reports SD
            Highway 27 is closed north of US-12. No
            additional specifics on location were given,
            so location is estimated based on the storm
            total precipitation. At the time of the
            report, roughly 4.5-5.5 inches of rain had
            fallen along SD-27 near Pierpont, with more
            rain on the way.

&&

BC

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
850 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0508 PM     Flash Flood      1 SSE Aberdeen          45.46N 98.48W
07/30/2026                   Brown              SD   Public

            Photo and Video of street flooding at S Penn
            St and 5th Ave SE in Aberdeen sent via
            Social Media. At deepest, standing water
            comes roughly halfway up car tires. Multiple
            cars appear stalled and/or abandoned.

&&

BC