Wind Advisory 15, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1152 PM MDT Tue Mar 31 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1137 PM MDT Tue Mar 31 2026

- Accumulating rainfall will result in ponding of water on roads
  with a risk of hydroplaning in the mountains, and mainly at
  lower elevations near the Arizona and Colorado borders tonight
  through Wednesday. Snow covered and icy roads are also forecast
  on northern mountain passes over 9000 feet.

- Strong west winds Wednesday through Friday will create hazardous
  crosswinds for high profile vehicles, especially over eastern
  New Mexico.

- Critical fire weather conditions will increase the risk of rapid
  fire spread east of the central mountain chain Thursday and
  Friday.

- Isolated to widely scattered and gusty virga showers and mainly
  dry thunderstorms early next week will increase the risk of new
  fire starts.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 113 PM MDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Rain showers and high terrain snow showers will increase in
coverage tonight, then spread onto the eastern plains as well
Wednesday morning as an upper level trough passes eastward over
the central and southern Rockies. After peaking in coverage
Wednesday morning, precip will decrease in coverage during the
afternoon as skies gradually clear from the west. Liquid and
liquid equivalent precip amounts should generally reach around a
quarter to a half inch in the mountains and at lower elevations of
northwest and north central NM, with lighter amounts at lower
elevations further south, and over an inch in the Tusas Mountains.
Several inches of snow are forecast above 9000 feet in the Tusas
Mountains and Sangre de Cristo Mountains, with a few inches near
and above 9000 feet in the Jemez and Chuska Mountains. There will
be thunderstorms in the mix on Wednesday, mostly along and north
of I-40. Stronger cells will be capable of localized, brief, and
erratic wind gusts up to 50 mph. Strong southwest winds are also
forecast to gust up to 50 mph across northeast and east central
areas on Wednesday afternoon until sunset, and also along the east
slopes of the Sacramento and Guadalupe Mountains. The night shift
may issue a Wind Advisory for Wednesday, but the day shift held
off due to model differences on when the clouds and precip will
exit the eastern plains Wednesday afternoon. If it stays too
cloudy too long, there probably won't be enough vertical mixing in
the atmosphere for wind gusts to reach 50 mph over a broad enough
area or for a long enough period of time to warrant a Wind
Advisory Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 113 PM MDT Tue Mar 31 2026

As the aforementioned upper level trough exits eastward on
Wednesday night, an upper level low pressure system will move into
the western US keeping the flow aloft strong over NM for Thursday
and Friday. A ~990 mb surface low will also develop in eastern CO
on Friday, helping to produce southwest wind gusts from 25 to 35
mph across the forecast area, except up to 45 mph across the
northeast. Humidities will also plummet in the downslope flow on
Thursday with fire weather concerns east of the central mountain
chain. The wind direction will shift out of the northwest by
Friday morning as the upper low shifts eastward onto the upper
Great Plains, then gusts from 25-40 mph will probably return to
much of the forecast area in the afternoon. Humidities will drop
near 10 percent across much of the forecast area on Friday, when
fire weather concerns look to linger east of the central mountain
chain while spreading to the northwest plateau. After highs a few
to around 11 degrees above average on Thursday, readings will fall
a few to several degrees on Friday. Highs Friday afternoon should
only reach the 50s across the northwest plateau, mitigating the
fire weather threat there somewhat.

In the wake of a backdoor cold front Friday night, temperatures
will fall near to as much as 9 degrees below average across the
forecast area on Saturday. A ridge of high pressure will also
build over the southwest US this weekend enabling high
temperatures to trend warmer early in the coming week. However,
some models depict a rich return flow of low level moisture, and a
disturbance undercutting the ridge that could work with this
moisture to spread the chance for gusty and very light showers and
thunderstorms mainly to central and western parts of the forecast
area Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1137 PM MDT Tue Mar 31 2026

A moist storm system crossing the airspace the next 24 hrs will
create various impacts to aviation, including; icing, turbulence,
LLWS, rain, isolated storms, areas of MVFR, and mt obscurations.
Top-down moistening will allow cigs to lower overnight with the
first wave of light rain and very high terrain snow developing
now along and west of the central mt chain. The highest chance
for MVFR and lcl IFR thru sunrise will be over northwest NM. A
lull is expected Wednesday morning followed by a second wave of
rain and isolated storms as a Pacific cold front moves east across
the region Wednesday afternoon. Mt obscurations will continue
with periods of MVFR cigs/vsbys from more persistent rain along
and west of the central mt chain. West winds will become strong
as well with gusts of 35-45KT expected over eastern NM Wednesday
afternoon. There is a 10-20% chance of wind gusts >35KT at KABQ
between 1pm and 5pm. Partial clearing will occur from west to
east after sunset with decreasing winds most areas. The east
slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mts will remain windy as mt wave
action amplifies and creates downslope wind gusts up to 45KT
Wednesday night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 113 PM MDT Tue Mar 31 2026

With sunset this evening the gusty virga showers and isolated dry
thunderstorms currently occurring along and west of the central
mountain chain will transition to wetter variety precip. There is
a good chance for strong winds east of the central mountain chain
late on Wednesday afternoon, but humidities should only bottom out
around 18-28 percent. Humidities will bottom out around 10 percent
across the east on Thursday, and across most central and western
locations as well on Friday, when breezy to windy conditions will
redevelop with more significant fire weather concerns mainly
across the east. There will be a risk of isolated to widely
scattered and gusty virga showers and dry thunderstorms Sunday and
Monday mainly along and west of the central mountain chain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  47  63  36  70 /  80  80  10   0
Dulce...........................  36  55  27  64 /  90  90  50  10
Cuba............................  41  57  32  67 /  80  70  10   5
Gallup..........................  44  59  30  68 /  60  90   0   0
El Morro........................  45  56  33  66 /  30  90   0   0
Grants..........................  45  61  32  70 /  30  60   0   0
Quemado.........................  44  59  33  70 /  40  60   0   0
Magdalena.......................  50  63  38  73 /  20  30   0   0
Datil...........................  46  58  34  68 /  30  40   0   0
Reserve.........................  39  63  29  72 /  40  70   0   0
Glenwood........................  44  68  34  76 /  30  70   5   0
Chama...........................  34  48  27  56 /  90  90  70  10
Los Alamos......................  47  55  39  65 /  80  80  20   5
Pecos...........................  42  57  35  66 /  60  80  20   0
Cerro/Questa....................  40  50  33  60 /  80  90  40   0
Red River.......................  37  42  28  49 /  80  90  60   5
Angel Fire......................  32  50  25  57 /  80  90  60   5
Taos............................  38  55  30  65 /  80  90  40   0
Mora............................  40  51  34  66 /  50  70  20   0
Espanola........................  46  63  36  74 /  70  70  10   0
Santa Fe........................  47  57  37  68 /  70  80  20   5
Santa Fe Airport................  45  59  36  71 /  70  70  10   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  54  63  42  75 /  60  60   5   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  53  66  43  77 /  50  50   5   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  51  68  40  78 /  50  50   5   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  52  67  43  77 /  50  50   5   0
Belen...........................  50  71  38  80 /  40  40   5   0
Bernalillo......................  52  67  42  77 /  60  60   5   0
Bosque Farms....................  47  70  37  79 /  50  50   5   0
Corrales........................  51  69  43  78 /  60  50   5   0
Los Lunas.......................  48  70  38  79 /  50  40   5   0
Placitas........................  54  61  42  73 /  60  70   5   0
Rio Rancho......................  53  68  43  78 /  60  50   5   0
Socorro.........................  54  72  42  81 /  30  30   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  50  59  40  69 /  70  70   5   0
Tijeras.........................  49  60  40  71 /  60  70   5   0
Edgewood........................  48  62  38  71 /  60  70   5   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  42  64  35  73 /  50  70   0   0
Clines Corners..................  45  59  37  68 /  40  70   0   0
Mountainair.....................  46  63  36  71 /  50  70   5   0
Gran Quivira....................  47  63  37  71 /  40  60  10   0
Carrizozo.......................  51  68  40  73 /  10  40  10   0
Ruidoso.........................  49  63  41  67 /  10  60  10   0
Capulin.........................  39  61  33  68 /  10  40   0   0
Raton...........................  40  65  33  73 /  10  40   5   0
Springer........................  41  67  35  73 /  20  40   5   0
Las Vegas.......................  44  61  37  69 /  30  60   0   0
Clayton.........................  42  70  42  77 /  10  30   5   0
Roy.............................  44  66  37  74 /  10  40   5   0
Conchas.........................  46  75  43  81 /  10  30  10   0
Santa Rosa......................  49  72  44  77 /  10  40   5   0
Tucumcari.......................  47  77  45  83 /   0  30  10   0
Clovis..........................  49  79  47  82 /   0  30  10   0
Portales........................  48  81  46  82 /   0  20  10   0
Fort Sumner.....................  47  77  43  82 /   5  30  10   0
Roswell.........................  52  82  46  85 /   0  20  10   0
Picacho.........................  52  76  41  80 /   5  20   0   0
Elk.............................  49  73  37  78 /   0  40   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
evening for NMZ104-123-125-126.

&&

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...42