Severe Thunderstorm Warning 91, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1134 AM MDT Mon Jun 15 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1132 AM MDT Mon Jun 15 2026

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms along and east of the
  continental divide this afternoon and evening will be capable of
  producing lightning, hail, gusty winds, and blowing dust. There
  will be a marginal risk of severe storms over central and
  eastern areas.

- Ruidoso area burn scars have a low to moderate risk of flash
  flooding this afternoon and evening.

- Hot, dry, and breezy-to-windy conditions that increase the risk
  of rapid fire spread across the northwest plateau Tuesday, will
  expand to more of Western and central New Mexico Wednesday.

- Hazardous heat is forecast in the central valley Wednesday, and
  also across the eastern plains, as high temperatures vary from
  99 to 106 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 117 AM MDT Mon Jun 15 2026

With subtropical moisture in place and an upper level trough
clipping northeast NM in northwest flow aloft, scattered showers
and thunderstorms will return to the area along and east of the
continental divide this afternoon and evening, except for numerous
cells over and just east of the Sangre de Cristo and south
central mountains. Storm motion will mostly be toward the
southeast around 25-35 mph. With 0-6 KM bulk shear around 25-40
KT and CAPE around 800-1600 J/KG this afternoon, a few severe
storms will develop across eastern areas, and potentially as far
west as the central valley. In addition, PWATS varying around
0.75" in the central valley to as much as 1.25" on the eastern
plains will enable storms to produce locally heavy rainfall and
isolated flash flooding. High res models depict some of the
heaviest rainfall today from storms along the east slopes of the
Sacramento Mountains. At this time, they show the strongest storms
developing just east and southeast of the Ruidoso-area burn
scars, and moving away from the scars. However, residents will
need to remain vigilant and watch out for flash flooding, because
high res models don't always nail the precise location of heavy
rainfall, and they are indicating that storms in the Ruidoso area
will be capable of producing a quick inch of rainfall today;
potentially on the burn scars.

Hot, dry, and windy conditions are forecast for NM Tuesday and
Wednesday as a broad ridge of high pressure builds over the west
coast and an upper level trough tracking southeastward out of the
northern Rockies strengthens northwest flow aloft over NM. After
high temperatures today vary from near 30-year averages over
western areas and as much as 15 degrees below average in the east,
readings will climb around 5 to 24 degrees Tuesday into
Wednesday. Hazardous heat will develop Wednesday central and east,
when highs on the plains will vary from 99-106 F, and readings in
the middle and lower Rio Grande valley reach the low 100s.
Meanwhile, humidities will plummet into the single digits over
northwest areas Tuesday, then almost areawide Wednesday. Gusts to
40 mph over the northwest plateau Tuesday will create critical
fire weather conditions there. The 40 mph wind gusts will spread
to more of western NM Wednesday, and as far east as the central
highlands producing greater coverage of critical fire weather
conditions.

Some models depict isolated showers and thunderstorm over the
southern tier of mountains Tuesday and Wednesday, and over parts
of the far eastern plains, but confidence is low that any
substantial rainfall will occur.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 117 AM MDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Showers and thunderstorms will return to the forecast during the
latter half of the week and the coming weekend. A weak ridge of
high pressure is forecast to build over NM during the latter half
of the work week, while an upper level trough tracks inland over
the west coast drawing enough subtropical moisture northward over
NM for thunderstorms to increase in coverage starting Thursday.
In addition, a somewhat moist backdoor cold front that reaches as
far west as the central mountain chain Wednesday night will
probably also increase thunderstorm chances along and east of the
central mountain chain starting Thursday. Storms will increase in
coverage on Friday as the upper trough makes more progress over
the Desert Southwest, while further enhancing southeasterly low-
level return flow. On Saturday, a significant downtick in
thunderstorm coverage is expected at least in the west, and maybe
also in the east depending on how much progress the upper trough
makes crossing the Rocky Mountain states. Additional drying is
likely Sunday across most of the forecast area as a second, drier
upper level trough moves inland over the western US. An exception
will be the northeast corner of NM on Sunday, where the upper
trough may interact with moisture from a backdoor front to produce
showers and thunderstorms. After 10-22 degrees of cooling across
eastern NM Thursday, and a few degrees of cooling over central and
western areas on Friday, readings will rebound in the coming
weekend when highs will vary from near average to as much as 6
degrees above average.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1132 AM MDT Mon Jun 15 2026

VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist through the TAF
period, with a couple of exceptions. Short-lived MVFR conditions
are possible in/near scattered showers and storms this afternoon
and evening, with KROW being the terminal most likely to be
impacted. In addition, MVFR cigs may redevelop at KROW early
Tuesday morning. Otherwise, gusty west and northwest winds will
prevail across central and western NM this afternoon and early
evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 117 AM MDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Erratic thunderstorm outflow potentially as strong as 60 mph will
return this afternoon and evening along and east of the
continental divide. Some storms along the continental divide,
including Mount Taylor, will produce gusty winds and dry
lightning with little or no rainfall this afternoon.

With this forecast package we are issuing a Fire Weather Watch
for the Northwest Plateau on Tuesday and Wednesday, and also on
Wednesday for the North Central and West Central Mountains, Middle
Rio Grande Valley, Sandia and Manzano Mountains, and Central
Highlands. RFTIs in these areas will vary mostly from 4-7 with
ERCs mostly in the 80-90th percentile. Between now and Wednesday,
we will see how ERC's respond to rain that fell along the east
slopes of the western mountains on Sunday, and that may fall there
and along the east slopes of the central mountains today. With
the ongoing severe and extreme drought conditions, the relatively
localized wetting rainfall early this week probably won't be
enough to enable ERCs to recover much.

Thursday and Friday, gusty virga showers and mostly dry storms
should return to northwest areas, west central areas, and the
central valley.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  56  95  58  99 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  44  91  45  94 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  52  89  56  91 /   5   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  50  93  55  94 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  52  90  55  91 /   5   0   0   0
Grants..........................  51  93  56  94 /   5   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  55  90  59  90 /   5   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  60  91  65  93 /  20   0   0   0
Datil...........................  57  89  62  89 /  10   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  49  94  51  93 /   5   0   0  30
Glenwood........................  54  98  55  97 /  10   0   0  20
Chama...........................  44  85  45  88 /   0   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  58  89  63  92 /   5   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  50  89  56  92 /  10   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  49  85  52  88 /  10   0   0   0
Red River.......................  42  76  46  80 /  10   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  37  80  41  84 /  10   0   0   0
Taos............................  48  88  52  91 /  10   0   0   0
Mora............................  48  85  54  90 /  10   0   0   0
Espanola........................  55  95  59  98 /  10   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  55  89  59  93 /  10   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  53  93  57  96 /  10   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  64  94  68  98 /  10   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  62  96  66 100 /  10   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  59  98  62 102 /  10   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  61  96  64 100 /  10   0   0   0
Belen...........................  59  99  63 102 /  10   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  59  97  63 101 /  10   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  57  98  61 101 /  10   0   0   0
Corrales........................  59  97  63 101 /  10   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  57  99  61 102 /  10   0   0   0
Placitas........................  61  94  65  97 /  10   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  61  96  65 100 /  10   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  65  99  71 104 /  20   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  57  90  61  92 /  10   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  58  92  62  95 /  10   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  54  92  60  95 /  10   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  49  93  55  96 /  10   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  52  89  58  92 /  20   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  55  92  60  95 /  10   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  55  91  60  95 /  20   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  61  93  65  97 /  20   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  55  84  60  90 /  30   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  48  85  53  93 /  30   5   0   0
Raton...........................  47  90  51  97 /  20   0   0   0
Springer........................  48  91  52  98 /  10   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  49  89  57  94 /  20   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  55  89  61 100 /  30  10   0   0
Roy.............................  52  88  57  97 /  20   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  57  97  61 104 /  20   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  56  95  64 101 /  20   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  59  96  65 105 /  30   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  59  93  64 103 /  40   0   0   0
Portales........................  59  94  65 104 /  40   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  59  96  64 104 /  40   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  63  98  65 109 /  20   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  58  94  64 100 /  30   5   0   0
Elk.............................  55  89  61  95 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
evening for NMZ101.

Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for NMZ101-105-106-120-124-125.

&&

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...11

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>