Severe Thunderstorm Warning 82, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
636 PM MDT Fri Jun 12 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 634 PM MDT Fri Jun 12 2026

- Scattered showers and storms are likely each day through Monday,
  with coverage peaking on Sunday. A few storms may become severe
  in central and eastern New Mexico each afternoon.

- There is a moderate risk of flash flooding over the Ruidoso area
  burn scars each day through Monday. There is a low risk of off
  scar flash flooding in eastern New Mexico Saturday through
  Monday.

- Drier and hotter weather returns around the middle of next week.
  Critical fire weather conditions may develop in northwest New
  Mexico Tuesday and Wednesday (moderate confidence).

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 623 PM MDT Fri Jun 12 2026

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for northeastern NM
including Colfax, Union, and Harding Counties for the threat of
severe thunderstorms moving east toward the TX later this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 634 PM MDT Fri Jun 12 2026

High pressure aloft is sprawling across the southern ConUS and
Mexico with the flow aloft remaining westerly in northern NM.
Meanwhile, the low level flow in the plains has begun to veer east
southeast behind yesterday and last night’s front. Although the
westerly winds aloft are weaker than previous days (20 to 30 kt
at 500 mb), this will add to directional/speed shear through the
evening, especially in northeastern NM where SPC has a Slight Risk
for severe weather outlined. After some close calls earlier
around the Ruidoso burn scars, convection is projected to keep
initiating north northeastward over the central and eventually
northeastern highlands before rolling eastward into the plains in
the late afternoon and evening. Most CAM's indicate that
convection will die off by midnight with a couple of members
retaining a cell or two in the northeastern plains through the
early morning hours.

The flow aloft will not alter or change all that much into
Saturday, but the orientation of a western centroid of the upper
high over Mexico and an inverted trough over the eastern Pacific
will steer deeper subtropical moisture into the Gulf of CA and
southern AZ. In NM, the eastern zones will retain deeper moisture
with PWATs of 1.0 to 1.2 inches with more modest amounts of 0.6
to 0.8 inch in most remaining NM zones, but higher values will be
pooling southwest of the Mogollon Rim into AZ. Overall, the
convection is modeled to be a bit more subdued on Saturday,
initiating east of the central mountain chain and just slightly
east of today’s initiation areas. However, sparse coverage does
look to develop to the west of the central mountain chain and
toward the southwestern NM mountains with the slight increase in
moisture, and western areas will also run a couple degrees cooler
Saturday afternoon, but still largely in the 90's. Any storms
west of the central mountain chain would be higher-based and less
efficient at producing measurable rainfall. Storms in
northeastern NM will again have the potential to turn strong to
severe with hail and damaging winds on Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 634 PM MDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Into Sunday the flow aloft turns increasingly northwesterly over
NM while a strong shortwave trough dives into the central plains.
A few smaller scale embedded perturbations also look to ride the
northwest flow into NM while another backdoor cold front arrives
from the northeast at the surface early Sunday morning. Moisture
advection will ensue into eastern NM, setting the stage for
increased storms via surface moisture convergence and increasing
directional shear profiles anywhere along and east of the Rio
Grande valley. Areas to the west would continue to be favored for
more sparse, drier storms.

Surface high pressure will continue building southward down the
plains on Monday with winds veering more southerly in the plains.
This will keep moisture entrenched over the eastern half of the
state while the steady northwesterlies aloft start to eat at the
moisture in far western zones. Also, another shortwave
perturbation will slide down in this flow aloft, potentially
aiding additional convective initiation in central to eastern
zones.

The drying from the northwesterlies aloft will be more pronounced
going into Tuesday, squelching probabilities for precipitation
through Wednesday. This will allow temperatures to quickly
escalate, and by Wednesday readings will be running 5 to 12
degrees above normal with heat impacts returning for many zones as
we reach into the 90's and 100's again. The northwest flow aloft
would also strengthen some (15 to 30 kt at 700 mb), and this
would cause stronger momentum to mix down for breezy to windy
conditions both Tuesday and Wednesday from northwestern to central
zones. Another backdoor front returns Wednesday night, recharging
the low layer moisture into Thursday and reintroducing POPs.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 634 PM MDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms continues to track eastward off
the Sangre de Cristo Mts and Sacramento Mts toward TX this hour.
Localized IFR/MVFR conditions will accompany any of these storms
with strong to severe hail, winds, and lightning associated with any
of the strong storm cells. Have maintained a PROB30 for TS at KROW
for this. Meanwhile, scattered virga showers across western NM are
pushing some modest erratic stray gusts into portions of the Rio
Grande Valley. Have maintained PROB30s for this at KSAF-KABQ-KAEG
thru 02Z. VFR will prevail tonight once convection subsides or moves
into TX this evening. Saturday will see a similar pattern of
afternoon thunderstorms mainly along and east of the central
mountain chain with virga and isolated thunderstorm activity through
western NM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 634 PM MDT Fri Jun 12 2026

A backdoor front spilled into the Rio Grande valley and reached
beyond the Continental Divide last evening, and the moisture
accompanying the front has been significant, leading to a notable
increase in thunderstorm development. While the best prospects for
wetting rain are highest in eastern NM zones, modest moisture
gains between the Continental Divide and the central mountain
chain will continue to lead to the development of storms, just of
a drier variety that may include a few dry thunderstorms posing a
risk of new lightning ignitions, both today and Saturday.
Incoming disturbances aloft and another backdoor front will help
enhance storm development Sunday and, to a lesser degree, on
Monday. Similar trends will follow with wetter storms east of the
central mountain chain and drier, gustier storms to the west.
Prevailing wind concerns during this time frame would be mostly
driven by the backdoor fronts while thunderstorm outflows, of
course, produce brief and localized gusts.

Much drier air will arrive with the northwest flow aloft on
Tuesday and Wednesday, and this will shut down storm chances while
re-introducing breezy to windy conditions, particularly from the
Four Corners down into central, interior NM. Temperatures will
also be spiking in this drier regime, so a few hours of marginal
or critical fire weather would pose concerns both afternoons
Tuesday and Wednesday. The moist backdoor front arriving Wednesday
night into Thursday should provide at least partial, if not
fairly widespread, relief from the heat and dryness.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  60  93  61  90 /   0   5  10  20
Dulce...........................  49  88  50  82 /   0   5  10  70
Cuba............................  56  87  56  80 /  10  10  10  60
Gallup..........................  55  87  51  86 /   5  20  20  40
El Morro........................  55  83  53  82 /  10  20  20  30
Grants..........................  56  88  54  84 /  10  20  20  50
Quemado.........................  58  84  55  84 /   0  30  20  30
Magdalena.......................  63  88  62  81 /  10  30  20  60
Datil...........................  60  84  57  81 /  10  40  20  50
Reserve.........................  54  91  51  90 /   5  40  20  30
Glenwood........................  57  96  55  96 /   0  20  20  20
Chama...........................  47  81  47  74 /   5  10  20  70
Los Alamos......................  62  84  60  75 /  20  20  10  70
Pecos...........................  54  88  53  74 /  30  20  20  60
Cerro/Questa....................  53  82  51  73 /  20  40  30  80
Red River.......................  42  76  43  66 /  20  40  40  80
Angel Fire......................  33  79  42  68 /  20  30  40  80
Taos............................  53  85  53  76 /  20  20  20  80
Mora............................  51  83  50  67 /  40  30  50  80
Espanola........................  58  91  58  82 /  20  20  10  80
Santa Fe........................  59  88  60  78 /  30  20  10  60
Santa Fe Airport................  57  92  58  82 /  20  20  10  60
Albuquerque Foothills...........  68  96  66  85 /  10  20  10  60
Albuquerque Heights.............  67  95  67  86 /  10  20  10  60
Albuquerque Valley..............  59  97  60  88 /  10  20  10  60
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  65  96  65  86 /  10  20  10  60
Belen...........................  64  97  63  89 /  10  20  10  40
Bernalillo......................  63  96  64  87 /  10  20  10  60
Bosque Farms....................  60  96  59  87 /  10  20  10  50
Corrales........................  64  97  64  87 /  10  20  10  60
Los Lunas.......................  61  96  61  87 /  10  20  10  50
Placitas........................  65  92  64  83 /  20  20  10  60
Rio Rancho......................  65  95  65  85 /  10  20  10  60
Socorro.........................  69  97  68  90 /  10  20  20  50
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  60  88  59  78 /  20  20  10  60
Tijeras.........................  61  90  60  80 /  10  20  10  60
Edgewood........................  58  90  58  77 /  20  20  10  50
Moriarty/Estancia...............  53  92  55  78 /  20  20  10  50
Clines Corners..................  56  87  54  70 /  20  20  20  40
Mountainair.....................  58  91  57  78 /  10  20  10  40
Gran Quivira....................  58  90  57  77 /  10  20  10  40
Carrizozo.......................  63  93  63  84 /  10  20  20  50
Ruidoso.........................  54  86  54  74 /  20  40  20  70
Capulin.........................  51  84  47  63 /  30  30  70  50
Raton...........................  50  88  51  68 /  20  30  60  50
Springer........................  53  89  53  69 /  40  30  60  50
Las Vegas.......................  55  87  52  67 /  40  30  30  50
Clayton.........................  62  92  53  67 /  50  40  70  30
Roy.............................  57  89  52  66 /  60  40  50  30
Conchas.........................  62  96  58  72 /  50  50  40  40
Santa Rosa......................  61  94  57  71 /  30  40  30  30
Tucumcari.......................  65  97  59  72 /  50  50  60  40
Clovis..........................  65  95  61  71 /  20  10  50  40
Portales........................  66  97  61  75 /  20  10  50  40
Fort Sumner.....................  64  95  60  74 /  30  30  40  30
Roswell.........................  67  98  66  82 /  30  20  20  50
Picacho.........................  60  93  60  75 /  20  60  30  50
Elk.............................  58  90  58  76 /  30  60  30  60

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11

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