Severe Thunderstorm Warning 52, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
114 PM MDT Tue Jun 2 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 103 PM MDT Tue Jun 2 2026

- Slow moving thunderstorms will threaten flash flooding on recent
  burn scars and poorly drained areas, including the Ruidoso area
  and Seven Cabins burn scars this afternoon and Wednesday.

- Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms over eastern NM will
  threaten frequent lightning, severe gusts, and large hail this
  afternoon and early evening.

- Scattered virga and isolated dry thunderstorms over west-
  central NM and Gila NF will threaten strong and erratic gusty
  winds, dry lightning, and risk of new fire starts thru Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 103 PM MDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Convective initiation has already begun along the Sacramento Mts and
areas along and east of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Locally
heavy rainfall totaling 0.50" to 1.25" have already fallen over the
Ruidoso area burn scars. Flash flood warnings have already been
issued and this threat will continue through the rest of the
afternoon and early evening. The scattered to numerous thunderstorms
along and north of I-40 this hour are tapping into healthy low-level
return flow from the Gulf providing 2000-3500 K/kg of SBCAPE across
much of eastern NM. Modest 0-6km bulk shear of 25-35kts has and will
continue to allow these cells to organize into supercells
threatening frequent lightning, severe gusts, and large hail. These
two areas from the Sacramento Mts and northeastern NM are expected
to expand and congeal over east-central and southeastern NM late
today and this evening. Meanwhile, only modest low-level moisture
has pushed into south-central NM and up toward the southwestern
mountains. A subtle and modest upper level trough over southern AZ
that is providing much of the upper level triggering for the
aforementioned thunderstorm activity over eastern NM will also aide
in dry thunderstorm development along the Continental Divide mainly
from Mt. Taylor southward. This activity will mainly threaten dry
downburst winds and lightning that could blow some dust around as
well in portions of southwestern and west-central NM stretching into
the Rio Grande Valley from ABQ southward. These gusty winds pushing
into the Santa Fe and ABQ Metros this evening are expected to
primarily be southeasterly to easterly by the evening, dominated from
outflow from convection east of the Sandia/Manzano Mts.

Tonight will feature a slow decay of shower and thunderstorm
activity through eastern NM into early Wednesday morning. There may
be some low clouds and perhaps some patchy fog over these portions,
dependent upon mid to upper level cloud cover as well. Nevertheless,
the aforementioned outflow winds will push increased low level
moisture westward to and past the Continental Divide highlighted by
Td's increasing into the 40s and 50s. This will spread convective
activity to and east of the Continental Divide and even to the AZ
border along and south of I-40. Slow steering flow will allow for
long residence times for thunderstorms over any one location, which
will allow for locally heavy rainfall threatening flooding issues
over poorly drained areas. This will include the Santa Fe and ABQ
metro areas and their associated arroyo systems during the late
afternoon and evening hours. Recent burn scars will again be at
risk, namely the Ruidoso area and Seven Cabins burn scars, prompting
an issuance of another Flood Watch for Wednesday. The one saving
grace here is weaker shear aloft will limit the lifespan for any one
updraft. Secondary convective activity through the late afternoon
into Wednesday evening will mainly be along colliding outflow
boundaries favoring areas of central and east-central NM. This will
again slowly wane through Wednesday night into early Thursday
morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 103 PM MDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Thursday begins the long term similar to today and Wednesday,
however with a slow intrusion of drier air into western NM. This
will spread further into central NM and the Rio Grande Valley Friday
and Saturday bringing a step down in afternoon thunderstorm activity
to end the work week each day. Much of Friday and Saturday's
thunderstorm activity will favor areas along and east of the central
mountain chain as a result. Weak steering flow is also expected to
persist, allowing for locally heavy rainfall threatening flooding
impacts over poorly drained areas or areas having already seen heavy
downpours earlier in the week. Recent burn scars in Lincoln County
will also remain at risk, but at a step lower relative to Tuesday
and Wednesday.

Sunday into early next week sees a building ridge of high pressure
over NM with a deepening troughing pattern along the Pacific
Coastline. Numerical model guidance resolves varying amounts of low-
level moisture intruding beneath the high into NM for next week.
This is lowering the forecast confidence for how much daily
afternoon thunderstorm activity there will be during the 6-10 day
period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1130 AM MDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Scattered to numerous afternoon thunderstorms bringing localized
MVFR/IFR conditions to areas along and east of the central
mountain chain have already begin this past hour. Some storms will
be capable of becoming severe producing severe gusts and large
hail. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms through southwestern and
west-central NM will threaten more dry downburst wind gusts that
will stretch into the middle to lower Rio Grande Valley mainly
from KSAF southward to KABQ and KONM. Have included a strong east
canyon wind at both KSAF and KABQ to account for this that lasts
into the evening hours. Remnant shower and thunderstorm activity
will persist long overnight over much of eastern NM, with MVFR
ceilings slow to break as well.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 103 PM MDT Tue Jun 2 2026

The main fire weather concerns through the next 7 days concern
isolated to scattered dry lightning potential along and west of the
Continental Divide this afternoon threatening new fire starts.
Scattered to numerous afternoon and evening thunderstorm activity
along and east of the central mountain chain will threaten localized
heavy rainfall and frequent lightning. There is a high potential for
flash flooding on recent burn scars, notably over Lincoln County.
Gusty outflow winds are also expected to push through the gaps of
the central mountain chain this evening, gusting to 25 to 40 mph
from Santa Fe to ABQ to Socorro. Daily rounds of afternoon
thunderstorms favoring the eastern half of NM while drier conditions
with some potential for virga showers and dry thunderstorms
continues through the rest of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  58  89  54  91 /   0  10   0   0
Dulce...........................  46  83  41  86 /   5  50   5   5
Cuba............................  52  77  47  83 /  20  40  20  10
Gallup..........................  49  84  46  86 /   5  30   5   5
El Morro........................  50  79  47  82 /  10  50  20  10
Grants..........................  50  81  47  85 /  30  50  20  10
Quemado.........................  49  81  49  83 /  20  60  20  10
Magdalena.......................  54  77  54  79 /  50  70  30  10
Datil...........................  50  76  50  79 /  30  70  20  30
Reserve.........................  48  86  47  87 /   5  60  20  50
Glenwood........................  51  91  50  90 /   5  50  20  60
Chama...........................  44  75  40  78 /   5  60  20  20
Los Alamos......................  57  74  53  79 /  20  70  40  30
Pecos...........................  50  73  46  80 /  40  80  50  30
Cerro/Questa....................  50  74  47  79 /  20  70  20  10
Red River.......................  41  65  39  70 /  20  80  30  20
Angel Fire......................  43  68  39  74 /  30  90  30  40
Taos............................  50  76  46  81 /  20  70  20  10
Mora............................  49  69  45  78 /  50  80  50  40
Espanola........................  56  81  52  87 /  20  60  30  10
Santa Fe........................  56  74  52  80 /  30  70  40  10
Santa Fe Airport................  54  77  50  83 /  30  60  30   5
Albuquerque Foothills...........  61  82  59  86 /  30  60  40   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  58  84  56  87 /  30  50  40   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  58  86  56  90 /  30  50  30   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  59  84  57  88 /  30  40  30   0
Belen...........................  55  86  54  89 /  40  40  40   0
Bernalillo......................  59  84  57  89 /  30  50  30   0
Bosque Farms....................  55  85  53  89 /  40  40  30   0
Corrales........................  59  85  57  90 /  30  50  30   0
Los Lunas.......................  56  85  54  89 /  40  40  30   0
Placitas........................  59  79  57  85 /  30  60  40   0
Rio Rancho......................  59  84  57  88 /  30  50  30   0
Socorro.........................  60  88  59  89 /  50  40  40   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  54  76  52  81 /  40  70  40   5
Tijeras.........................  54  77  52  82 /  40  60  40   5
Edgewood........................  52  77  49  83 /  40  60  50  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  50  77  47  83 /  40  60  50  20
Clines Corners..................  50  71  48  78 /  40  70  60  20
Mountainair.....................  50  77  49  81 /  50  60  50  20
Gran Quivira....................  51  76  50  79 /  60  60  60  20
Carrizozo.......................  58  80  57  80 /  60  50  60  40
Ruidoso.........................  53  72  52  74 /  60  70  60  80
Capulin.........................  48  68  45  77 /  50  50  20  20
Raton...........................  50  73  47  81 /  40  60  20  20
Springer........................  52  73  48  81 /  50  60  30  20
Las Vegas.......................  51  69  48  78 /  60  70  60  40
Clayton.........................  54  74  52  81 /  70  50  50   5
Roy.............................  52  70  50  78 /  70  60  50  20
Conchas.........................  56  76  54  84 /  70  70  70  10
Santa Rosa......................  54  73  52  81 /  60  60  70  20
Tucumcari.......................  58  78  55  85 /  70  70  60  20
Clovis..........................  59  77  56  82 /  70  60  60  50
Portales........................  59  78  56  83 /  70  60  60  60
Fort Sumner.....................  57  77  55  82 /  70  60  70  30
Roswell.........................  60  80  59  83 /  80  50  60  20
Picacho.........................  55  77  54  80 /  70  60  50  60
Elk.............................  54  77  53  80 /  60  70  60  80

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ226.

Flood Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening
for NMZ226.

&&

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...24

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
422 PM MDT Tue Jun 2 2026

NMZ233-022245-
Guadalupe County NM-
422 PM MDT Tue Jun 2 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL GUADALUPE COUNTY
UNTIL 445 PM MDT...

At 422 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles north of Sumner Lake State Park, or 19 miles southeast of Santa
Rosa, moving north at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Mainly rural areas of East Central Guadalupe County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

Heavy rains from severe thunderstorms can produce sudden and
dangerous flows in arroyos, ditches and over low water crossings. Do
not attempt to drive through areas where water covers the roadway.

&&

LAT...LON 3470 10435 3470 10451 3493 10452 3492 10427
      3478 10432 3478 10434 3473 10434
TIME...MOT...LOC 2221Z 185DEG 21KT 3477 10441

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

77

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
431 PM MDT Tue Jun 2 2026

NMZ213>215-022300-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains NM-Northern Sangre de
Cristo Mountains NM-Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains NM-
431 PM MDT Tue Jun 2 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL TAOS...NORTH
CENTRAL MORA AND SOUTHWESTERN COLFAX COUNTIES UNTIL 5 PM MDT...

At 431 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Black Lake, or 18 miles east of Taos, moving north at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Angel Fire, Eagle Nest, Vietnam Veterans Memorial State Park, Black
  Lake and Eagle Nest Lake State Park.

This includes Highway 64 between Mile Markers 269 and 284.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3634 10537 3655 10535 3649 10504 3623 10519
      3628 10538
TIME...MOT...LOC 2230Z 195DEG 21KT 3633 10527

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

77

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
433 PM MDT Tue Jun 2 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0412 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     5 E Sumner Lake State P 34.61N 104.28W
06/02/2026  M68 MPH          De Baca            NM   Trained Spotter

&&

44

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
441 PM MDT Tue Jun 2 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0407 PM     Hail             1 NE Chacon             36.16N 105.35W
06/02/2026  M1.00 Inch       Mora               NM   Trained Spotter

            Time estimated based on radar.

&&

MBD