Severe Thunderstorm Warning 191, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
233 PM MDT Mon Jul 27 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 206 PM MDT Mon Jul 27 2026

- Moderate to major heat risk will impact many lower elevations
  of New Mexico over the next seven days with high temperatures in
  the upper 90s to low 100s.

- Daily rounds of afternoon thunderstorms with frequent lightning,
  gusty winds, small hail, and localized heavy rainfall continues
  at varying coverages over the next seven days. Flash flooding
  will be possible in areas that receive multiple days of heavy
  rainfall or repeated rounds of thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 206 PM MDT Mon Jul 27 2026

The 18Z RAOB is mostly unchanged in the last 24-hrs at KABQ with a
PWAT of 1.15", H5 temps near -3C, and weak steering flow. The H5
high center over northeast NM is keeping a lid on storm development
east of the central mt chain with only isolated activity across the
northern and western high terrain. Any cells that do form thru late
today will still be capable of producing small footprints of heavy
rainfall amounts >1.5". A subtle shortwave trough and weak surface
boundary moving across eastern CO today will spawn a well-defined
areas of storms in that area tonight. This convection is likely to
force a stronger surface boundary southwest into northeast NM late
tonight. The boundary has trended stronger on recent model guidance.
A few showers and storms are also possible overnight as the outflow
boundary surges into the area.

The surface boundary will be draped along the east slopes of the
central mt chain Tuesday morning while rich moisture and weak
steering flow persist beneath the monsoon high. Robust convection
is shown by various CAMs to erupt along the central high terrain
where surface convergence is enhanced from the lingering boundary.
Hi-res ensemble model QPF distributions show heavy rainfall likely
from any storms (>1.5"). Steering flow with the main high centroid
over eastern NM will be slow and erratic toward the north and
west. Convective outflows then force storms into nearby lowlands
to include the Santa Fe metro southward along the RGV. Confidence
was high enough to issue a Flood Watch Tuesday from the Sangre de
Cristo Mts southwest across parts of central NM into the western
high terrain. Heavy rainfall may occur in the ABQ metro as well
depending on how outflows converge. The heat will be a concern
Tuesday with many areas in the upper 90s to low 100s, so Heat
Advisories are also in effect.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 206 PM MDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Convective outflows and remnant MCVs from the storms Tuesday will
provide additional lift for storms Wednesday. There is no notable
change in the placement of the H5 high center over eastern NM and
little change to mid level temps or steering flow. The NBM90th
percentile QPF envelope trends a little lower Wednesday but many
footprints are still >0.75" in several areas around the higher
terrain. These amounts will likely trend higher as hi-res CAMs
get into the mix. More Heat Advisories are also likely for parts
of the area.

By Thursday, the H5 high is shown drifting west into central NM
while strengthening to near 598dm. This will most likely result in a
slight downtick in storm coverage with a return to greater coverage
of Heat Advisories. A repeat in convection over eastern CO Thursday
may force another boundary southwest into eastern NM Thursday night.
This would spark another uptick in storm coverage Friday and perhaps
Saturday as the H5 high center drifts west into northeast AZ.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1143 AM MDT Mon Jul 27 2026

A meager crop of SHRA/TS is expected today with a sharper focus
on the high terrain thru sunset. Storm motion will be slow and
erratic with gusty outflow winds and heavy rain still possible
from a direct hit. A convective outflow boundary will move south
into northeast NM this evening then settle along the central mt
chain by sunrise Tuesday. Isolated SHRA/TS may redevelop after
midnight along the boundary as it moves southwest thru northern
and eastern NM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 206 PM MDT Mon Jul 27 2026

There is no critical fire weather forecast. Temperatures will be
very hot areawide. The main concern is for new lightning starts in
patchy dry fuels. A strong monsoon high across northern NM will
meander west into northern AZ by late week. The greatest risk for
locally heavy rainfall will be over the northern and western high
terrain where localized amounts of 1 to 2" are possible. Flash
flooding may occur, especially around burn scars.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  69 100  69  98 /   0   0   5   5
Dulce...........................  57  97  56  95 /   5  10  30  30
Cuba............................  63  94  62  92 /   0  10  40  30
Gallup..........................  62  92  60  91 /  10  50  30  40
El Morro........................  60  89  59  87 /  20  70  50  60
Grants..........................  64  93  62  91 /  10  50  50  50
Quemado.........................  62  89  61  88 /  20  70  30  60
Magdalena.......................  69  92  67  90 /  20  30  40  30
Datil...........................  65  87  62  86 /  20  70  40  50
Reserve.........................  61  95  60  94 /  20  70  30  50
Glenwood........................  65 100  63  99 /  20  60  30  40
Chama...........................  56  88  55  87 /   5  30  40  50
Los Alamos......................  69  93  67  89 /  20  50  50  40
Pecos...........................  64  92  61  90 /  10  70  30  40
Cerro/Questa....................  61  89  59  87 /  40  50  60  50
Red River.......................  51  84  50  83 /  40  70  60  60
Angel Fire......................  53  84  49  83 /  20  80  30  60
Taos............................  61  92  59  90 /  20  40  40  30
Mora............................  61  88  58  87 /  20  80  30  60
Espanola........................  69 100  67  96 /  20  40  40  20
Santa Fe........................  69  93  66  91 /  10  50  30  30
Santa Fe Airport................  67  97  64  94 /  10  40  30  30
Albuquerque Foothills...........  73 101  71  99 /   5  40  50  20
Albuquerque Heights.............  72 101  70  99 /   5  40  50  10
Albuquerque Valley..............  71 103  69 100 /   5  30  50   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  73 102  71  99 /   5  30  50   5
Belen...........................  71 103  69 100 /   5  20  50   0
Bernalillo......................  72 103  70 100 /   5  40  50  10
Bosque Farms....................  70 102  67  99 /   5  30  50   0
Corrales........................  72 104  71 100 /   5  40  50  10
Los Lunas.......................  72 102  69 100 /   5  20  50   0
Placitas........................  72  99  69  96 /   5  40  50  20
Rio Rancho......................  72 102  70  99 /   5  30  50   5
Socorro.........................  76 104  74 103 /  20  20  50   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  68  93  65  92 /  10  50  50  40
Tijeras.........................  66  97  63  93 /   5  50  50  30
Edgewood........................  64  97  61  94 /  10  60  50  40
Moriarty/Estancia...............  61  97  59  95 /  10  60  50  30
Clines Corners..................  63  91  60  90 /  20  60  40  20
Mountainair.....................  64  96  61  94 /  20  50  60  20
Gran Quivira....................  66  94  63  92 /  20  50  60   5
Carrizozo.......................  72  98  69  97 /   5  20  30   5
Ruidoso.........................  67  91  64  89 /   5  20  10  10
Capulin.........................  61  89  58  88 /  30  80  70  50
Raton...........................  61  94  58  92 /  30  80  40  50
Springer........................  63  96  60  94 /  20  80  40  50
Las Vegas.......................  63  92  60  90 /  30  70  40  40
Clayton.........................  69  98  67  97 /  20  20  50  20
Roy.............................  68  95  64  93 /  20  50  50  10
Conchas.........................  71 103  67 102 /  10  30  50   0
Santa Rosa......................  69 100  66  98 /  10  10  30   0
Tucumcari.......................  72 104  70 102 /   5   5  40   0
Clovis..........................  70 104  69 102 /   0   0   5   0
Portales........................  72 105  71 103 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  72 104  70 102 /   0   0  20   0
Roswell.........................  75 106  74 103 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  70 101  69  98 /   5   5   0   0
Elk.............................  68  98  66  95 /   0   5   0   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for
NMZ204>209-211-212-214-215-218-221-228-229-241.

Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM MDT Tuesday for NMZ201-217-219-
220-234>238.

Heat Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for NMZ212-217-219-221-
227-228-230>238.

&&

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...42

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1240 PM MDT Mon Jul 27 2026

NMZ214-215-271915-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains NM-East Slopes Sangre de
Cristo Mountains NM-
1240 PM MDT Mon Jul 27 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN TAOS...SOUTHWESTERN
MORA...SOUTHEASTERN RIO ARRIBA AND NORTHWESTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTIES
UNTIL 115 PM MDT...

At 1240 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Gascon, or 13 miles southwest of Mora, moving north at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Gascon, Morphy Lake State Park, Cleveland, Rociada and Monte
  Aplanado.

This includes State Road 518 between Mile Markers 31 and 34.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3577 10543 3575 10544 3577 10559 3603 10566
      3603 10533
TIME...MOT...LOC 1839Z 186DEG 9KT 3586 10551

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MA

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