Red Flag Warning 39, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1126 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1120 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026

- The threat of rapid fire spread becomes more isolated to the
  lowwer to middle Rio Grande Valley Tuesday afternoon.

- Stray erratic and gusty winds from virga showers will impact a
  few spots across northwestern and north-central NM Tuesday
  afternoon.

- Afternoon thunderstorm activity increases over eastern New
  Mexico Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 205 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026

A windy day is coming to fruition over northern and central New
Mexico today, as an upper low has rounded UT and is now starting to
lift into CO as a shortwave. This morning's 12Z model runs had lower
initial condition wind speeds at 700 mb, but it should be noted
there is a dearth of 1200UTC raobs to assimilate nowadays.
Regardless, speeds of 30-45 kt were modeled this morning, and these
will reduce slightly with the speed max transitioning farther
northeast through the afternoon. Gusts have already exceeded 50 mph
at Las Vegas, NM and more sites will join soon. Blowing dust is
still a concern, and we will be monitoring the need for any Blowing
Dust Advisories through the afternoon. Shower activity was been
scant, with radar echoes largely staying north of our northern
zones, and our window of opportunity for precip today has passed.

Winds will start to decouple in western and central NM this evening,
but the backdoor cold front will send rapid pressure rises into
northeastern NM, as the backdoor front plunges in. The front will
spill down all of the eastern plains before dawn Tuesday, bringing
gusty northerly winds, and higher dewpoints. The front is now
modeled to advance farther west by some higher resolution models,
spilling into the Rio Grande shortly after dawn, and this would
invoke a gusty gap/canyon wind at vulnerable locations such as the
Glorieta Pass and eastern ABQ. Winds have been increased here
accordingly.

Through the afternoon Tuesday, winds in the eastern NM plains will
veer southerly while a large swath of convection breaks out over TX
where the front will meet the rich Gulf moisture. Another upper
level trough will move into UT, essentially phasing with pressure
falls east of the Baja peninsula and creating a sharper trough
upstream of us than what was modeled just a couple days ago. This
will keep relatively strong southwesterlies aloft (15-25 kt at 700
mb) feeding over NM and it will also help draw the easterly wind
into areas like Santa Fe and Albuquerque during the morning. This
alignment will also place a north-south oriented corridor of
stronger winds over central NM near the Rio Grande Tuesday afternoon
where gusts of 25 to 35 mph will be common. There also is sufficient
mid level moisture modeled to yield high-based cumulus and virga
over north central zones Tuesday afternoon and evening. Temperatures
will run several degrees cooler (and 10 to 15 degrees below normal)
in eastern zones Tuesday afternoon while western and central zones
warm closer to seasonal averages.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 205 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026

Surface high pressure will continue to build into the central and
south central plains early Wednesday with a synoptic east
southeasterly surface flow becoming established into west TX and
eastern NM. Very high dewpoints will be pooling in southern and
eastern TX, moderating some as the moist air infiltrates the higher
plains in our eastern zones. Widespread low stratus clouds would
likely accompany this moist easterly push along with drizzle and
sprinkles Wednesday morning. True to form, the NAM continues to be
more aggressive, bringing the moisture and easterly winds all the
way westward to the Rio Grande while other synoptic models keep it
over the eastern plains. In fact, the NAM/RRFS are so persistent
with the easterly surface flow well into the afternoon, that it
keeps the low stratus entrenched over much of eastern NM and does
not allow the boundary layer to destabilize or exploit the newfound
moisture for convection. In contrast, the GFS and other synoptic
members mix the moisture eastward, allowing a sharp dewpoint
gradient and dryline to form over the eastern counties where
destabilization and convective initiation would ensue Wednesday
afternoon. The NBM offers a good blend to the dewpoint extremes, but
produces an artificially soft gradient that will not likely be
representative of reality: a much sharper north-south oriented
dryline. Have tried to steer the forecast dewpoints/POPs/Sky towards
a more realistic conceptual model, but this will be tricky to
pinpoint the placement of the dryline and any subsequent storms. The
NBM plastered very high POPs across many eastern zones, and this was
tempered and lowered.

Through Thursday, two upper level features are becoming more
discretely apparent, the residual weak trough over the upper Baja
peninsula and another shortwave trough dropping into the central
Rockies. These look to stay far enough away to not pose much impact
to NM weather, and Thursday's forecast will hinge on low layer
moisture and how far west it sloshes during the early morning before
mixing back out eastward into the afternoon. The latest consensus is
carrying the moisture (40's - 50's dewpoints) farther east and
closer to the eastern NM and west TX border. This will of course
reduce chances for deep, moist convection with a smaller subset of
eastern counties observing isolated to scattered cells. The central
Rockies trough would then seem to drag drier westerly flow into
eastern NM going into Friday, but there is the potential for another
backdoor cold front to disrupt this, keeping quite a bit of
uncertainty in the dewpoint/POP forecast for Friday. Should a good
frontal intrusion occur, moisture would linger over eastern zones
into Friday night and Saturday with veering winds reintroducing the
prospects for deep, moist convection and perhaps a few strong to
severe storms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1120 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026

Strong southwesterly winds have tapered off for the most part this
evening, replaced by gusty northerly to northeasterly winds
pushing into northeastern NM behind a cold front advancing
southward from CO. This frontal boundary is pushing through KTCC
this hour, and will bring gusty winds thru the gaps of the central
mountain chain into KSAF and KABQ near sunrise Tuesday morning
around 13Z to 14Z, reaching KROW an hour or so earlier by 11Z to
12Z. Winds across eastern NM quickly veer southeasterly, joining
up with southerly to southwesterly winds through central and
western NM Tuesday afternoon. Breezy to locally winds are expected
again but at notably lesser speeds relative to what was observed
Monday. Low-level moisture increasing the chances for IFR ceilings
moves into southeastern NM, including at KROW, toward the end of
the TAF period Tuesday night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 205 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026

A fire weather growing pattern is underway with widespread critical
to locally extreme conditions today. As forecast, the strongest
winds have been focused over the central mountain chain eastward,
and more specifically the northeast highlands where gusts are
reaching 55 to 60 mph. Many areas are also already observing less
than 10% RH. Winds will start to abate in western and central zones
after sunset, and while winds will stay gusty in northeastern areas,
they will be shifting northerly with higher dewpoints (and rising
RH) as a cool, moist backdoor front arrives.

Winds in the plains will veer in direction, turning south through
the day Tuesday with breezy speeds persisting. It is also still
forecast to be breezy in western zones Tuesday, and this will lead
to a convergence zone over central NM with southwesterlies and
southeasterlies meeting over the Rio Grande and central mountain
chain where wind speeds will be enhanced (gusts of 30 to 35 mph).
This centralized area of enhanced winds will introduce a couple to a
few hours of marginal to spotty critical conditions Tuesday
afternoon, namely in the lower Rio Grande valley. Both the spatial
coverage and duration of these critical conditions were not
widespread or long enough to justify doing a Fire Weather Watch for
FWZ106, but if forecast wind speeds increase a bit more this could
quickly change.

Some breeziness will redevelop in similar areas on Wednesday, once
again leading to localized critical fire weather conditions in the
lower Rio Grande valley, but gusts appear to be slightly lower than
what is forecast on Tuesday. The long duration wind threat reduces
more into Thursday and the remainder of the work week, as weak and
ill-defined upper level features become established and reduce wind
fields aloft. This will keep wind concerns confined to thunderstorm
outflows in eastern NM and occasionally in central gaps/canyons when
moisture intrudes from the east.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  40  76  44  76 /   0   0   5   0
Dulce...........................  31  71  36  73 /   0  10  10  10
Cuba............................  37  73  42  74 /   0  10  10   5
Gallup..........................  34  74  37  74 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  38  73  43  72 /   0  10   5   0
Grants..........................  37  78  42  77 /   0  10   5   0
Quemado.........................  40  75  44  75 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  47  78  52  78 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  42  75  48  74 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  38  78  42  79 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  42  83  45  84 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  31  65  36  66 /   0  10  30  20
Los Alamos......................  46  71  51  71 /   0  10  10  20
Pecos...........................  40  71  43  70 /   0  10  10  30
Cerro/Questa....................  39  68  42  69 /   0  10  30  20
Red River.......................  32  59  35  59 /   0  10  40  30
Angel Fire......................  27  63  30  64 /   0  10  30  40
Taos............................  35  71  39  73 /   0  10  20  20
Mora............................  37  67  41  66 /   0  10  30  30
Espanola........................  43  79  48  79 /   0  10  10  20
Santa Fe........................  45  73  49  72 /   0  10  10  20
Santa Fe Airport................  43  75  47  75 /   0  10  10  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  53  81  55  81 /   0  10  10  10
Albuquerque Heights.............  54  82  54  83 /   0  10  10  10
Albuquerque Valley..............  50  84  52  84 /   0  10  10   5
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  50  83  54  84 /   0  10  10   5
Belen...........................  47  86  50  86 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  50  83  53  83 /   0  10  10  10
Bosque Farms....................  46  85  49  85 /   0   5   5   5
Corrales........................  50  84  54  85 /   0  10  10  10
Los Lunas.......................  47  85  50  86 /   0   0   5   5
Placitas........................  51  79  54  78 /   0  10  10  10
Rio Rancho......................  50  83  54  84 /   0  10  10  10
Socorro.........................  52  87  56  87 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  46  76  50  75 /   0  10   5  20
Tijeras.........................  47  78  50  76 /   0  10   5  20
Edgewood........................  43  77  46  75 /   0  10   5  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  39  78  42  77 /   0   5   5  20
Clines Corners..................  42  70  44  68 /   0   0  10  30
Mountainair.....................  44  78  46  78 /   0   0   0  10
Gran Quivira....................  45  77  48  78 /   0   0   0  10
Carrizozo.......................  53  81  54  82 /   0   0   0  10
Ruidoso.........................  50  73  52  71 /   0   0   5  20
Capulin.........................  32  62  35  59 /   5   5  20  30
Raton...........................  35  67  41  65 /   0   5  20  30
Springer........................  38  69  41  66 /   0   0  30  30
Las Vegas.......................  39  66  44  64 /   0  10  30  30
Clayton.........................  41  66  42  61 /   0   0  20  30
Roy.............................  41  68  42  62 /   0   0  30  30
Conchas.........................  47  75  47  69 /   0   0  30  40
Santa Rosa......................  45  76  47  68 /   0   0  30  30
Tucumcari.......................  49  75  48  70 /   0   0  20  40
Clovis..........................  47  76  50  68 /   0   0  20  40
Portales........................  49  77  50  70 /   0   0  20  40
Fort Sumner.....................  48  79  50  72 /   0   0  20  50
Roswell.........................  55  85  57  77 /   0   0  20  30
Picacho.........................  51  83  51  77 /   0   0  10  30
Elk.............................  50  83  49  80 /   0   0   5  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...24