Flash Flood Warning 97, NWS Albuquerque, NM

616 
WGUS75 KABQ 152018
FFSABQ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
218 PM MDT Sat Aug 15 2026

NMC047-152145-
/O.CON.KABQ.FF.W.0097.000000T0000Z-260815T2145Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
San Miguel NM-
218 PM MDT Sat Aug 15 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR THE HERMITS PEAK AND CALF CANYON BURN SCAR
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NORTHERN SAN
MIGUEL COUNTY...

At 218 PM MDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated
thunderstorms producing heavy rain over the Hermits Peak and Calf
Canyon Burn Scar near and northwest of Rociada. Between 2.25 and 3
inches of rain have fallen. The expected rainfall rate is 1 to 2
inches in 1 hour. Additional rainfall amounts of 0.25 to 0.75 inches
are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or
expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing
         flash flooding in and around the Hermits Peak and Calf
         Canyon Burn Scar.

SOURCE...Radar and automated gauges.

IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of areas in and around the
         Hermits Peak and Calf Canyon Burn Scar.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Tierra Monte, Sapello, Manuelitas and Rociada.

This includes State Road 518 between Mile Markers 10 and 16.

The drainages most likely to experience flash flooding are Manuelitas
Creek and Sapello River.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This is a life threatening situation. Heavy rainfall will cause
extensive and severe flash flooding of creeks, streams and ditches in
the Hermits Peak and Calf Canyon Burn Scar. Severe debris flows can
also be anticipated across roads. Roads and driveways may be washed
away in places. If you encounter flood waters, climb to safety.

&&

LAT...LON 3587 10546 3587 10535 3584 10524 3584 10523
      3583 10522 3579 10522 3574 10523 3577 10540
      3581 10546

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR AND GAUGE INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
EXPECTED RAINFALL RATE...1-2 INCHES IN 1 HOUR

$$

11

065 
WGUS55 KABQ 152106
FFWABQ
NMC047-152245-
/O.EXT.KABQ.FF.W.0097.000000T0000Z-260815T2245Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
306 PM MDT Sat Aug 15 2026

The National Weather Service in Albuquerque has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  The Hermits Peak and Calf Canyon Burn Scar in...
  Northern San Miguel County in northeastern New Mexico...

* Until 445 PM MDT.

* At 306 PM MDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated
  thunderstorms producing heavy rain over the Hermits Peak and Calf
  Canyon Burn Scar has ended and only light to occasional moderate
  rain persisted. Between 2.5 and 3.25 inches of rain have fallen.
  Additional rainfall amounts up to 0.25 inches are possible in the
  warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin
  shortly.

  HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing
           flash flooding in and around the Hermits Peak and Calf
           Canyon Burn Scar.

  SOURCE...Radar and automated gauges.

  IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of areas in and around the
           Hermits Peak and Calf Canyon Burn Scar.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Tierra Monte, Sapello, Manuelitas and Rociada.

This includes State Road 518 between Mile Markers 10 and 16.

The drainages most likely to experience flash flooding are Manuelitas
Creek and Sapello River.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This is a life threatening situation. Heavy rainfall will cause
extensive and severe flash flooding of creeks, streams and ditches in
the Hermits Peak and Calf Canyon Burn Scar. Severe debris flows can
also be anticipated across roads. Roads and driveways may be washed
away in places. If you encounter flood waters, climb to safety.

&&

LAT...LON 3587 10546 3587 10535 3584 10524 3584 10523
      3583 10522 3579 10522 3574 10523 3577 10540
      3581 10546

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR AND GAUGE INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

11

806 
WGUS75 KABQ 152240
FFSABQ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
440 PM MDT Sat Aug 15 2026

NMC047-152250-
/O.EXP.KABQ.FF.W.0097.000000T0000Z-260815T2245Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
San Miguel NM-
440 PM MDT Sat Aug 15 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR THE HERMITS PEAK AND CALF CANYON BURN SCAR
WILL EXPIRE AT 445 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NORTHERN SAN MIGUEL
COUNTY...

The heavy rain has ended. Elevated flows may remain in creeks and
streams, but flash flooding is no longer expected to pose a threat.
Please continue to heed any remaining road closures.

&&

LAT...LON 3587 10546 3587 10535 3584 10524 3584 10523
      3583 10522 3579 10522 3574 10523 3577 10540
      3581 10546

$$

77

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1201 PM MDT Sat Aug 15 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1151 AM MDT Sat Aug 15 2026

- There is a high risk of flash flooding over the Ruidoso area
  burn scars today. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect from 11 AM
  until 6 PM MDT.

- Scattered storms Saturday become more widespread over
  northeastern New Mexico on Sunday. Isolated flash flooding may
  occur each afternoon.

- Smoke from wildfires will continue to impact air quality across
  portions of northern New Mexico through the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 156 AM MDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Showers linger across northern NM again this morning and could
persist as late as sunrise in the far northern mountains near the
Colorado border. Rainfall amounts should remain under 0.1", but the
moisture will nonetheless be beneficial for the parched area where
soil moisture as at near-record level dryness.

A drier airmass will push into western NM today, translating to
warmer temperatures and lower rain chances along and west of the Rio
Grande Valley. A relatively thin sub-tropical moisture plume will
center itself along and just east of the central mountain chain
today. Storms will therefore develop over the mountains, drifting
off to the northeast during the afternoon and evening. Once again,
90th percentile guidance is only showing small pockets of 1-2" so
flash flooding will be very isolated and localized. The main area of
concern will be the Ruidoso area burn scars due to the potential for
sub-hourly rainfall rates over 1"/hour. Surface convergence along
the east slopes of the Sacramento mountains should favor development
over the burn scars, but a slight westerly component to the steering
flow could be just enough to keep the heaviest rainfall off the most
sensitive areas.

A disturbance will move over the CO Rockies into the High Plains
Saturday, sending a moist outflow boundary/backdoor front southward
into northeast New Mexico Saturday night, which should keep some
showers and storms around across the northeast corner of the state
through the night.  The boundary should push all the way into
central NM by the morning hours, setting the stage for a more active
day Sunday due to the replenished moisture. That being said, the
GEFS ensemble mean has notably trended drier, showing PWATs near
average as opposed to above normal like it did in previous runs.
Nonetheless, the coverage of showers and storms should increase as
ridging builds overhead, which should result in erratic storm
motions at times. 90th percentile rainfall amounts from the NBM show
a large swath of 1-3" from the central mountain chain eastward into
the plains from I-40 northward, indicating that a widespread area of
moderate to locally heavy rainfall will develop. Most of this rain
should fall into the beneficial category given the drought, but an
instance or two of flash flooding can also be expected.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 156 AM MDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Ridging will continue to develop over the desert southwest early
next week. The warmer temperatures and subsidence will decrease the
overall coverage of precipitation, but there will still be enough
moisture left underneath the ridge to produce daily rounds of
showers and storms.

Model agreement is starting to increase mid-week, with the LREF
showing a slight westward shift in the centroid of the ridge.
However, this shift should be too subtle and brief to mark a pattern
transition as model consensus brings the ridge overhead again late
week. While a slight downtick in storm coverage can be expected, NBM
guidance is running a touch dry and will most likely trend up a tad
in the coming days if the current pattern shown by ensemble means
manages to hold. Regardless of the exact location of the ridge,
above normal heights will translate to hot temperatures each
afternoon, generally running 5 to 10 degrees above average mid to
late week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1151 AM MDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Showers and thunderstorms will be concentrated over the south
central mountains and northeastern quadrant of New Mexico this
afternoon with storms slowly moving and redeveloping into the far
eastern plains this evening. Most storms will then exit New Mexico
before midnight. Typical aviation weather hazards will accompany
stronger storms with gusty downburst winds, hail, frequent
lightning, and hail. Storms will tend to produce larger hail and
gustier winds in northeastern New Mexico. A weak, but moist, cold
front will slide into northeastern New Mexico tonight, setting
the stage for more strong, and perhaps severe, storms Sunday
afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 156 AM MDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Saturday's crop of showers and storms will favor areas along and
east of the central mountain chain today. Moisture decreases
elsewhere, with min RH values generally 5 to 10 percent lower
compared to Friday. A backdoor front aided by storm outflows will
push into eastern NM Saturday night, eventually pushing into central
NM by Sunday morning. This will increase moisture and set the stage
for more widespread showers and storms across the region Sunday
afternoon/evening. At least wetting rainfall is likely this weekend
for the northeast third of the state, with lower chances in southern
and western areas.

Ridging will develop and amplify over New Mexico early next week,
translating to hotter temperatures and lower humidities. Scattered
showers and storms favoring the high terrain of western and northern
New Mexico will be the story each day next week, although there is
the potential for a slight uptick in coverage mid-week. With ridging
overhead, prevailing winds will continue to be light outside of
storm outflows.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  89  59  92  64 /   0   0   0   5
Dulce...........................  87  48  89  52 /   0   0   0  10
Cuba............................  86  57  88  58 /   0   0   5  20
Gallup..........................  85  55  88  57 /   0   0   5   5
El Morro........................  81  54  83  55 /   5   0  10  20
Grants..........................  85  56  88  58 /   5   0  10  20
Quemado.........................  82  57  84  57 /  10   5  40  20
Magdalena.......................  84  63  85  62 /  20  10  30  40
Datil...........................  80  57  82  57 /  10  10  30  40
Reserve.........................  87  56  89  56 /  20  10  30  20
Glenwood........................  92  62  94  62 /  10  10  30  20
Chama...........................  80  49  82  51 /   0   0   5  10
Los Alamos......................  85  61  86  61 /  10   0  20  30
Pecos...........................  86  56  84  56 /  20   5  70  40
Cerro/Questa....................  82  54  82  55 /  20   5  20  20
Red River.......................  74  44  74  45 /  40  10  40  30
Angel Fire......................  77  38  77  39 /  50   5  50  40
Taos............................  85  53  85  55 /  10   0  20  20
Mora............................  80  52  79  52 /  60  10  70  40
Espanola........................  91  58  92  59 /   5   0  20  30
Santa Fe........................  86  61  87  61 /  10   5  50  30
Santa Fe Airport................  89  58  90  59 /   0   0  40  30
Albuquerque Foothills...........  91  67  91  66 /   0   0  40  40
Albuquerque Heights.............  92  68  93  67 /   0   0  30  30
Albuquerque Valley..............  94  62  94  62 /   0   0  20  30
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  93  66  94  66 /   0   0  20  30
Belen...........................  94  64  95  65 /   0   0  20  40
Bernalillo......................  94  64  94  64 /   0   0  20  30
Bosque Farms....................  93  61  94  62 /   0   0  20  40
Corrales........................  94  65  95  65 /   0   0  20  30
Los Lunas.......................  93  63  94  64 /   0   0  20  40
Placitas........................  90  64  90  64 /   0   0  30  40
Rio Rancho......................  92  66  93  66 /   0   0  20  30
Socorro.........................  94  69  95  68 /   5   5  20  30
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  86  60  86  58 /   0   0  50  40
Tijeras.........................  87  61  87  60 /   0   0  40  40
Edgewood........................  87  57  86  57 /   5   0  50  40
Moriarty/Estancia...............  89  54  88  55 /   5   0  60  40
Clines Corners..................  85  57  83  56 /  10  10  60  50
Mountainair.....................  87  58  87  57 /  10   5  60  40
Gran Quivira....................  86  59  85  58 /  10  10  70  30
Carrizozo.......................  89  64  89  63 /  40  10  60  20
Ruidoso.........................  83  54  82  54 /  70  20  40  30
Capulin.........................  82  54  79  54 /  80  50  70  60
Raton...........................  87  54  83  54 /  70  20  80  50
Springer........................  88  55  84  55 /  80  20  70  50
Las Vegas.......................  85  55  81  55 /  40  20  70  40
Clayton.........................  92  61  84  60 /  60  80  40  70
Roy.............................  89  58  83  58 /  40  50  50  60
Conchas.........................  97  64  91  63 /  30  50  40  60
Santa Rosa......................  93  63  89  62 /  20  30  40  60
Tucumcari.......................  98  64  92  63 /  20  50  40  60
Clovis..........................  96  67  93  65 /  20  30  20  20
Portales........................  97  67  95  65 /  20  30  20  10
Fort Sumner.....................  97  67  94  66 /  10  20  30  60
Roswell.........................  99  70  98  69 /  30  10  10  10
Picacho.........................  92  63  91  62 /  70  10  30  10
Elk.............................  87  59  87  58 /  70  20  40  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 6 PM MDT this evening for NMZ226.

&&

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...52

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1031 AM MDT Sat Aug 15 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     Flash Flood      5 WNW Bonito Lake       33.47N 105.79W
08/14/2026                   Lincoln            NM   Public

            Social media photos show significant mud and
            debris across Bonito Lake Road. Social media
            post stated that multiple locations westward
            of Bonito Lake had mud and debris over
            roadway, making them impassable. Location
            estimated via photos and time estimated via
            radar.

&&

CG