Flash Flood Warning 86, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
141 PM MDT Sat Aug 1 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 141 PM MDT Sat Aug 1 2026

- Storms across central and eastern New Mexico this afternoon and
  evening will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts and
  large hail, locally heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding,.

- Moderate to major heat risk will impact many lower elevations of
  far western New Mexico today, then gradually expand back into
  central and eastern NM through at least mid next week.

- Much lower coverage of showers and thunderstorms across the
  higher terrain and nearby lower elevations Sunday and Monday
  before gradually increasing beginning Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 141 PM MDT Sat Aug 1 2026

Higher low level moisture is in place east of the Continental Divide
currently due to a backdoor front pushing west to this Arizona
border early this morning. Low level moisture is mixing out across
most areas west of the Rio Grande Valley. However, PWATS around 0.9
to 1.3 inches along and east of the Rio Grande Valley and along and
south of U.S. 60. With the added moisture and daytime heating.
thunderstorms have gotten going across the central and southern
mountain ranges. These storms will move south-southeast into
surrounding lower elevations, mainly along and east of the central
mountain chain, during the rest of the afternoon and evening hours
due to upper level northerly flow on the western periphery of a 598
to 599 upper high over AZ and UT. Storms will be capable of
producing damaging wind gusts and large hail due to bulk shear
values of 35 to 45 kts and steeper mid level lapse rates compared
to this time yesterday at around 7.5 deg C. The high moisture
content mentioned above will also result in locally heavy rainfall
rates. The flash flooding risk will be highest on recent burn
scars (i.e. Ruidoso area), however the brisk north to south storm
motion at 10 to 20 mph will help limit the risk. Ruidoso will
likely see two rounds of showers and thunderstorms. The first
round from storms currently developing over the Sacramento
Mountains with the second round mid to late Saturday evening as
storms from the Sandia and Manzano Mountains and nearby highlands
move south. The Flash Flood Watch remains in effect until
midnight, but could be cancelled a few hours early once the 2nd
round of storms finished moving through the area. Storms will
taper off across southern NM late this evening. Finally, the heat
is the main story across northwest and far west central NM this
afternoon and early evening with high temperatures in the upper
90s to low 100 due to being close to the center of the upper high
over UT and AZ. Heat Advisories are in effect for the Northwest
Plateau and well as the West Central Plateau (including Gallup and
Zuni) until 8 PM this evening.

The upper high will pivot back east to over the Four Corners area
Sunday. North-northeast flow around the high will bring much drier
mid level air over the state with PWATS dropping to around 0.5 to
0.7 inches across northwest and far west central NM and 0.7 to 0.9
inches elsewhere. This will result in a much lower coverage of
showers and storms overall with an isolated storm or two across the
central mountains and scattered storms across the Gila Mountains
with a jog to the southwest. With the drier air, temperatures heat
back up to the upper 90s to low 100s across central and eastern NM
with similar temperatures to today across northwest and far west
central NM. With that, have issued another Heat Advisory for the
Northwest and West Central Plateau from 12 PM to 8 PM MDT. Storm
activity across the Gila Mountains should taper off just before
sunset.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 141 PM MDT Sat Aug 1 2026

The 594 to 596 dam 500 mb upper high flattens over much of the
desert SW on Monday. Generally drier air remains in place with PWATS
around 0.6 to 0.9 inches. This combined with downslope surface
southwest and west winds, will allow the heat to reintensify across
central and eastern NM. Record highs in the upper 90s to mid 100s
will be common across lower elevations. Heat Advisories will likely
be needed again across the Northwest and West Central Plateau and
expanded to numerous central and eastern zones come Monday. A few
Extreme Heat Warnings cannot be ruled out as well, including
Farmington and Albuquerque. Isolated to scattered storms Monday
afternoon and evening will mainly be confined to the higher terrain
and northeast highlands and far northeast plains.

A disturbance moving across eastern CO Monday evening will send a
boundary through northeast NM Tuesday morning cooling down high
temperatures by 5 to 10  degrees across this part of the state.
Additionally, PWATS across most of the area increase to around 0.8
to 1.2 inches. This will result in a slightly higher coverage of
showers and storms across the high terrain and nearby lower
elevations. For Wednesday into next weekend, to upper high over the
desert SW looks to reintensify to the upper 590s dam at 500 mb and
pivot to more over NV, UT, and CO. High temperatures will be hotter
than average for early August with mid 90s to low 100s across lower
elevations. Diurnal shower and thunderstorm chances favoring the
north central and southwest mountains and nearby lower elevations
moving south-southeast in nearby lower elevations across central and
eastern NM and west-southwest into nearby lower elevations across
western NM.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1150 AM MDT Sat Aug 1 2026

Thunderstorms currently developing over central mountains will
move south into lower elevations along and east of the central
mountain chain mid this afternoon and this evening. Storms look
to stay just east of KSAF and KABQ, but will bring a gusty
southeast and east canyon wind to these 2 terminals early to mid
this evening. Very hot and dry across northwest and west central
NM this afternoon and early evening. Storms along and east of the
central mountain chain will congeal into a line late this
afternoon and move through KROW this evening. Storms will be
capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail and locally
heavy rainfall. Storms taper off across southern NM late this
evening at around midnight with clearing skies overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 141 PM MDT Sat Aug 1 2026

No critical fire weather concerns through late next week. A backdoor
front has brought higher moisture to areas along and east of the
Continental Divide resulting in scattered to numerous showers and
storms across central and eastern New Mexico this afternoon and
evening. Storms will be capable of becoming severe with damaging
wind gusts and large hail along with locally heavy rainfall. The
flash flood risk will be highest on area burn scars, low lying, poor
drainage and urban areas. Meanwhile, hot and dry across northwest
and far west central New Mexico. Drier and hotter weather expands
back east Sunday and Monday. Widespread record high temperatures
Monday. Scattered thunderstorms across the Gila Mountains both
afternoons. Still hotter than normal with storm coverage gradually
ticking up across the higher terrain and nearby lower elevations mid
to late next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  68 102  66 103 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  54  97  54 100 /  10   0   0   5
Cuba............................  59  94  60  96 /   5   0   5   0
Gallup..........................  61  98  63  98 /   0   0   0   5
El Morro........................  58  94  59  94 /   0  10   5   5
Grants..........................  60  96  62  97 /   5  10   5  10
Quemado.........................  62  92  62  93 /  10  10  10   5
Magdalena.......................  63  90  65  93 /  20  20   5  20
Datil...........................  59  87  60  90 /  10  20  10  20
Reserve.........................  61  94  59  97 /  20  30  20  20
Glenwood........................  64  97  64  99 /  20  50  20  40
Chama...........................  52  89  54  92 /  10  10   5  10
Los Alamos......................  61  90  64  93 /   5  10   5  20
Pecos...........................  55  90  58  97 /  20  10   5  10
Cerro/Questa....................  55  91  59  94 /   5   0   0  10
Red River.......................  46  81  49  83 /   5   0   0  20
Angel Fire......................  38  84  44  88 /   5  10   5  30
Taos............................  53  93  57  97 /   5   0   0  10
Mora............................  51  89  55  95 /   5  10   5  20
Espanola........................  60  97  63 100 /   5   0   0   5
Santa Fe........................  61  91  64  96 /  20   0   0   5
Santa Fe Airport................  59  93  62  98 /  10   0   0   5
Albuquerque Foothills...........  66  97  70 101 /  10   0   5   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  65  98  69 102 /  10   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  65 100  69 105 /  10   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  67  99  70 103 /   5   0   5   0
Belen...........................  64 101  67 104 /  20   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  65  99  68 104 /   5   0   5   0
Bosque Farms....................  63 100  67 105 /  20   0   0   0
Corrales........................  66 100  70 105 /   5   0   5   0
Los Lunas.......................  64 100  68 104 /  20   0   0   0
Placitas........................  64  95  67 100 /  10   0   5   0
Rio Rancho......................  66  99  70 103 /   5   0   5   0
Socorro.........................  68 101  70 105 /  30   0   0   5
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  58  92  63  97 /  10   0   5   0
Tijeras.........................  60  92  65  97 /  10   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  55  93  60  98 /  20   5   0   5
Moriarty/Estancia...............  52  94  57  99 /  20  10   5   5
Clines Corners..................  55  89  61  94 /  30  10  10  10
Mountainair.....................  56  93  62  97 /  30   5   5  10
Gran Quivira....................  57  90  61  94 /  40   5  10   5
Carrizozo.......................  62  91  66  97 /  50   0   5   5
Ruidoso.........................  57  84  60  88 /  60  10   5  20
Capulin.........................  52  88  58  93 /   5   0   0  40
Raton...........................  52  94  56  97 /   5   5   5  30
Springer........................  53  96  55  99 /   5   5   5  20
Las Vegas.......................  53  91  56  96 /  10  10  10  20
Clayton.........................  60  95  66 100 /  10   0   0   5
Roy.............................  56  91  61  96 /  20   0   5  10
Conchas.........................  62 100  67 106 /  30   0   5   5
Santa Rosa......................  60  95  64 103 /  20   5   5  10
Tucumcari.......................  62 100  67 106 /  40   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  63  96  67 102 /  50   0   0   0
Portales........................  64  97  68 103 /  50   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  63  96  67 103 /  50   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  68 100  70 105 /  50   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  62  94  65  98 /  50   5   0  20
Elk.............................  59  90  62  94 /  40  10   0  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ201-205.

Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Sunday for NMZ201-205.

Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for NMZ226.

&&

SHORT TERM...71
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...71

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
150 PM MDT Sat Aug 1 2026

NMZ215-228-229-231-012015-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains NM-Far Northeast Highlands
NM-Harding County NM-Northeast Highlands NM-
150 PM MDT Sat Aug 1 2026

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT EASTERN MORA...
NORTHWESTERN HARDING...SOUTH CENTRAL COLFAX AND NORTHERN SAN MIGUEL
COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM MDT...

At 150 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a line of strong
thunderstorms extending from 6 miles south of Springer to 11 miles
north of Valmora, moving southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Springer, Wagon Mound, Valmora, Watrous and Shoemaker.

This includes Interstate 25 near Mile Marker 365...and between Mile
Markers 366 and 415.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

Motorists can expect brief but sudden changes in visibility and
ponding of water on roadways as storms move through the area.

&&

LAT...LON 3603 10509 3617 10485 3642 10463 3620 10431
      3591 10458 3571 10497
TIME...MOT...LOC 1950Z 316DEG 19KT 3628 10460 3607 10475 3597 10493

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

77

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