Flash Flood Warning 82, NWS Albuquerque, NM

736 
WGUS75 KABQ 290005
FFSABQ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
605 PM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

NMC047-290115-
/O.CON.KABQ.FF.W.0082.000000T0000Z-260729T0115Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
San Miguel NM-
605 PM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR THE HERMIT'S PEAK/CALF CANYON BURN SCAR
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WEST CENTRAL SAN
MIGUEL COUNTY...

At 605 PM MDT, While rainfall rates have decreased significantly,
between 1 and 1.5 inches of rain fell with earlier thunderstorms.
This will lead to excessive runoff with a risk of Flash Flooding
persisting.

Excessive rainfall over the burn scar will impact Tecolote Creek. The
debris flow can consist of rock, mud, vegetation and other loose
materials.

HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing
         flash flooding in and around the Hermit's Peak/Calf Canyon
         Burn Scar.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of areas in and around the
         Hermit's Peak/Calf Canyon Burn Scar.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Upper Colonias, Mineral Hill, San Geronimo and San Pablo.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This is a life threatening situation. Heavy rainfall will cause
extensive and severe flash flooding of creeks, streams and ditches in
the Hermit's Peak/Calf Canyon Burn Scar. Severe debris flows can also
be anticipated across roads. Roads and driveways may be washed away
in places. If you encounter flood waters, climb to safety.

Runoff from rainfall will cause elevated water levels within
vulnerable drainages in and downstream of the Hermits Peak-Calf
Canyon wildfire burn area.

Do not camp along streams and rivers. Remain alert when hiking in
steep, narrow canyons. Know where you are relative to low spots and
drainages.

&&

LAT...LON 3570 10553 3567 10543 3558 10533 3552 10540
      3551 10550 3561 10563

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

Shoemake

186 
WGUS75 KABQ 290108
FFSABQ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
708 PM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

NMC047-290118-
/O.EXP.KABQ.FF.W.0082.000000T0000Z-260729T0115Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
San Miguel NM-
708 PM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR THE HERMIT'S PEAK/CALF CANYON BURN SCAR
WILL EXPIRE AT 715 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WEST CENTRAL SAN MIGUEL
COUNTY...

The heavy rain has ended. Flash flooding is no longer expected to
pose a threat. Please continue to heed any remaining road closures.

&&

LAT...LON 3570 10553 3567 10543 3558 10533 3552 10540
      3551 10550 3561 10563

$$

Shoemake

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
145 PM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 143 PM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

- Moderate to major heat risk will impact many lower elevations
  of New Mexico over the next seven days with high temperatures in
  the upper 90s to low 100s.

- Daily rounds of afternoon thunderstorms with frequent lightning,
  gusty winds, small hail, and localized heavy rainfall continues
  at varying coverages over the next seven days. Flash flooding
  will be possible in areas that receive multiple days of heavy
  rainfall or repeated rounds of thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 143 PM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

The Monsoon high remains right overhead of NM today, and as such, we
are seeing both scattered to numerous thunderstorms and high
temperatures develop today. Thunderstorms have already developed
along the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, and are very likely to
continue this throughout the afternoon. These storms will be slow
moving, given the orientation of the high almost directly overhead.
Given that, and PWATs remaining above 1", the Flash Flood Watch
looks good for this afternoon and evening. Of particular concern are
a few areas within the current Flash Flood Watch: the Pecos
Wilderness east of Santa Fe, northeast NM near/east of Raton, and
highly saturated/sensitive areas near Gallup and Zuni Pueblo. REFS
and HREF LPMM guidance has focused on the Pecos River area east of
Santa Fe for localized rain amounts above 2", and this already seems
to be playing out with the current Flash Flood Warning in effect as
of 1pm. This storm is also traversing down the basin, which may
compound the effects of flooding. Additionally, should this storm
drift off to the southwest, urban flooding could become a concern
near Santa Fe. In northeast NM, storms firing off the Sangre de
Cristo Mountains are expected to cluster and push to and east of
Raton through the afternoon and early evening. REFS and HREF LPMM
again ping this area for heavy rainfall amounts, though there is a
difference in the exact location of it (REFS being north of Highway
64/87, HREF being south). Nevertheless, heavy rainfall looks
increasingly likely across that area, and with the soil being
relatively dry, too much rain too quickly can cause flash flooding
issues. For the Zuni Pueblo and Gallup area, storms are once again
expected over this area, with the potential for several rounds
through 9pm, and lingering showers thereafter. These locations
remain very sensitive from previous flooding events and impacts, so
it will not take as much rainfall to produce impacts throughout that
region. Overall, the strongest thunderstorms look to taper off by
9pm, with scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms remaining
through midnight at least.

The 18z ABQ sounding shows a 500mb height of 5971m, which puts it
near the daily record 500mb height. This would be the reason for our
very hot temperatures out there. Another round of Heat Advisories
are in effect today, mainly for lower elevation areas in central,
northwest, and eastern NM. The Heat Advisory was expanded to the
Sandia and Manzano Mountains as much of the zone is forecast to hit
or exceed their criteria (95F). Due to the warm low temperatures
(mid to high 70s) across lower elevations, major to locally extreme
Heat Risk is likely for areas near Socorro and Roswell today, so
everyone will need to take precautions when spending time outdoors
today.

For Wednesday, not much changes in the overall pattern, though the
high pressure is forecast to decrease a decameter or two, therefore
lowering temperatures just a touch. Even so, high 90s to low 100s
will remain across much of the area, and moderate to major to
locally extreme Heat Risk will persist. However, at least with this
package, will not go with additional Heat Advisories tomorrow.
Temperatures are not forecast to get to criteria across most of the
area, so while there will be hot temperatures with warm low
temperatures with higher levels of Heat Risk, we will not go with an
Advisory. The message of heat safety continues though.

A shortwave looks to round the high and push through CO, producing
scattered thunderstorms across our northern areas and pushing them
off into the northeast plains. Depending on how much area that part
of the state receives today (Tuesday), future shifts may need to
consider additional Flash Flood Watches. Additionally, with the west
to northwest flow, cannot rule out a strong to severe storm rolling
off the mountains. Elsewhere, storm coverage decreases a bit
compared to today, but still expecting scattered thunderstorms,
mainly on the high terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 143 PM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

No significant pattern changes are forecast for the next several
days, so the overall message may sound like a broken record when
talking about storm chances and hot temperatures. Another shortwave
looks to move across CO sometime on Thursday (which may be amplified
by the MCV that was over AZ this morning) and help produce
convection along the Front Range. Scattered thunderstorms are
likely along the northern mountains into northeast NM for
Thursday. This feature then works to push the center of the high
pressure more to the west, which will work to shift the overall
flow from north to south over much of NM. In turn, thunderstorms
will favor this storm motion, and this sets the stage for folks
along and just east of the central mountain chain to see a bulk of
the precipitation, while potentially giving a reprieve to folks
in western NM that have seen consistent rain. Throughout every day
though, the hot temperatures remain with highs in the 90s to low
100s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1137 AM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are likely this
afternoon across much of New Mexico. Storms will be capable of
producing gusty winds in excess of 30kts and brief MVFR to IFR
visibilities in heavy rainfall. A few storms are already getting
going across the Sangre de Cristo Mountains as of 1730z and are
likely to continue until at least 03-06z. Most TAF sites include
PROB30s for TS impacts, outside of KGUP where confidence was high
enough for a TEMPO. Thunderstorm coverage should be on the downtrend
by 03z, but showers are likely to remain through at least 06z across
much of the area, and potentially as late as 12z across northeast
NM. Outside of thunderstorms, winds remain rather light overall, and
hot temperatures will continue to lead to high density altitudes.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 143 PM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

No critical fire weather conditions are expected for the next
several days. Daily thunderstorm chances continue across much of the
area outside of southeast NM. Most storms will be capable of
producing frequent lightning, gusty winds, hail, and heavy rainfall.
Hot temperatures remain across the area as well, which correlates to
the forecast mixing heights remaining well above 10,000ft across a
majority of the area. Given the relatively dry nature of
eastern/northeastern NM, it is not out of the question to see a
lightning induced fire with storms that develop.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  69  97  68  98 /  10   5  20   0
Dulce...........................  59  93  55  93 /  50  40  50  10
Cuba............................  63  91  61  91 /  50  20  40  10
Gallup..........................  61  92  61  93 /  50  20  20  10
El Morro........................  59  88  59  89 /  60  40  20  30
Grants..........................  62  92  62  92 /  70  40  20  30
Quemado.........................  60  88  60  90 /  50  50  30  20
Magdalena.......................  66  91  68  92 /  50  20  10  40
Datil...........................  61  87  62  88 /  50  30  20  30
Reserve.........................  60  94  60  94 /  30  30  20  40
Glenwood........................  65  98  64  99 /  20  10  20  20
Chama...........................  56  86  54  86 /  50  50  60  20
Los Alamos......................  65  90  67  90 /  70  30  40  30
Pecos...........................  61  90  61  91 /  70  20  30  20
Cerro/Questa....................  58  87  59  87 /  50  50  60  20
Red River.......................  52  77  51  78 /  60  50  60  30
Angel Fire......................  51  82  49  83 /  60  50  60  30
Taos............................  59  90  58  91 /  50  30  50  20
Mora............................  58  86  57  88 /  70  50  60  40
Espanola........................  67  97  66  96 /  60  20  40  20
Santa Fe........................  65  91  66  92 /  60  10  30  10
Santa Fe Airport................  64  94  64  95 /  60  10  30   5
Albuquerque Foothills...........  70  97  71  99 /  60   5  30   5
Albuquerque Heights.............  70  98  69  99 /  60   5  20   5
Albuquerque Valley..............  71 100  68 100 /  60   5  20   5
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  71  99  71  99 /  60   5  30   5
Belen...........................  70 101  69 101 /  60   0  10   0
Bernalillo......................  70  99  70 100 /  60   5  30   5
Bosque Farms....................  70 100  67 100 /  60   5  20   0
Corrales........................  71 100  70 100 /  60   5  30   5
Los Lunas.......................  70 100  69 100 /  60   0  20   0
Placitas........................  69  96  69  97 /  60   5  30   5
Rio Rancho......................  70  99  70  99 /  60   5  30   5
Socorro.........................  73 102  74 102 /  50   5  10   5
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  64  91  65  92 /  70  10  30   5
Tijeras.........................  65  92  65  94 /  70  10  30   5
Edgewood........................  63  94  62  94 /  60  10  30  10
Moriarty/Estancia...............  61  95  59  96 /  60  10  30  10
Clines Corners..................  61  90  61  92 /  50  10  20  10
Mountainair.....................  63  94  62  94 /  50  10  20  10
Gran Quivira....................  64  94  63  94 /  30   5  20  10
Carrizozo.......................  71  97  68  98 /  10   5   5  10
Ruidoso.........................  65  88  63  89 /   5  10   5  20
Capulin.........................  59  87  58  89 /  70  60  50  50
Raton...........................  59  91  58  94 /  60  70  50  60
Springer........................  61  94  59  95 /  70  60  60  50
Las Vegas.......................  59  90  59  91 /  60  30  40  40
Clayton.........................  66  96  67  99 /  60  20  40  30
Roy.............................  64  93  64  95 /  50  20  40  30
Conchas.........................  70 102  69 104 /  40   5  20   5
Santa Rosa......................  68  99  67 100 /  20   5  10  10
Tucumcari.......................  71 103  71 104 /  20   5  20   0
Clovis..........................  70 102  69 101 /   5   0   5   0
Portales........................  71 103  70 101 /   5   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  72 102  70 103 /   5   0   5   0
Roswell.........................  74 103  72 104 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  69  97  67  97 /   0   0   0   5
Elk.............................  66  94  64  94 /   0   0   0   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ204>209-211>215-
218-221-227>230-241.

Heat Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for NMZ201-217-219>221-
234>238.

&&

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM....77
AVIATION...77

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
259 PM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

NMZ205-206-208-282130-
Southwest Mountains NM-West Central Plateau NM-West Central
Mountains NM-
259 PM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL CATRON AND SOUTH
CENTRAL CIBOLA COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM MDT...

At 259 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 17
miles north of Omega, or 41 miles northwest of Datil, moving
northwest at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Mainly rural areas of North Central Catron and South Central Cibola
  Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3464 10858 3476 10831 3453 10806 3445 10824
      3441 10830 3443 10842 3447 10848 3449 10850
TIME...MOT...LOC 2059Z 120DEG 4KT 3457 10835

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

24

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
332 PM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

NMZ205-206-282200-
West Central Plateau NM-West Central Mountains NM-
332 PM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT WESTERN CIBOLA AND
SOUTHWESTERN MCKINLEY COUNTIES UNTIL 4 PM MDT...

At 332 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a line of strong
thunderstorms extending from 7 miles north of Ramah to 20 miles south
of El Morro, moving west at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Pine Hill, El Morro, Ramah, McGaffey, Vanderwagen, Pescado and
  Upper Nutria.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

Heavy rains from severe thunderstorms can produce sudden and
dangerous flows in arroyos, ditches and over low water crossings. Do
not attempt to drive through areas where water covers the roadway.

&&

LAT...LON 3541 10869 3542 10840 3506 10824 3463 10797
      3463 10842 3492 10864 3540 10880
TIME...MOT...LOC 2132Z 77DEG 10KT 3524 10850 3497 10840 3477 10818

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

24

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
413 PM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

NMZ215-282245-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains NM-
413 PM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL MORA AND
SOUTHWESTERN COLFAX COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM MDT...

At 413 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Ocate, or 22 miles northeast of Mora, moving northeast at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Ocate.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

Heavy rains from severe thunderstorms can produce sudden and
dangerous flows in arroyos, ditches and over low water crossings. Do
not attempt to drive through areas where water covers the roadway.

&&

LAT...LON 3609 10505 3620 10519 3634 10504 3623 10494
      3623 10495 3622 10495 3621 10492 3616 10487
      3616 10488 3616 10489 3617 10490 3617 10492
      3618 10493 3618 10494 3617 10494 3616 10494
      3615 10493 3615 10492 3614 10491
TIME...MOT...LOC 2213Z 244DEG 4KT 3620 10504

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

24

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
428 PM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

NMZ205-282315-
West Central Plateau NM-
428 PM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN CATRON...
SOUTHWESTERN CIBOLA AND SOUTHWESTERN MCKINLEY COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM
MDT...

At 428 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a line of strong
thunderstorms extending from 12 miles northwest of Salt Lake to 7
miles east of Black Rock, moving northwest at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Zuni Pueblo, Black Rock, Vanderwagen and Pescado.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

Heavy rains from severe thunderstorms can produce sudden and
dangerous flows in arroyos, ditches and over low water crossings. Do
not attempt to drive through areas where water covers the roadway.

&&

LAT...LON 3502 10859 3484 10871 3448 10884 3455 10905
      3498 10905 3533 10885 3529 10869 3526 10866
      3528 10864 3526 10857 3524 10857 3524 10859
      3523 10860 3521 10856 3518 10859 3516 10856
      3508 10855 3508 10858 3506 10857 3507 10860
TIME...MOT...LOC 2228Z 138DEG 11KT 3457 10891 3485 10883 3507 10867

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

24

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
450 PM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

NMZ219-220-282315-
Lower Rio Grande Valley NM-Middle Rio Grande Valley including the
Albuquerque Metro Area NM-
450 PM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN VALENCIA AND NORTH
CENTRAL SOCORRO COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM MDT...

At 450 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Veguita, or 11 miles southeast of Belen, moving northwest at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Casa Colorada, Jarales, Veguita, Rio Communities, Los
  Trujillos-Gabaldon, Las Nutrias and Sabinal.

This includes Interstate 25 between Mile Markers 181 and 190.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

Motorists can expect brief but sudden changes in visibility and
ponding of water on roadways as storms move through the area.

&&

LAT...LON 3458 10688 3459 10689 3470 10665 3452 10656
      3443 10676
TIME...MOT...LOC 2250Z 152DEG 9KT 3452 10669

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

24

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
459 PM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

NMZ215-228-282330-
Far Northeast Highlands NM-East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains
NM-
459 PM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL MORA AND
SOUTHWESTERN COLFAX COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM MDT...

At 459 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles east of Ocate, or 15 miles northwest of Wagon Mound, moving
northeast at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Mainly rural areas of North Central Mora and Southwestern Colfax
  Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3622 10495 3626 10477 3610 10472 3608 10491
      3622 10497
TIME...MOT...LOC 2259Z 227DEG 2KT 3618 10487

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

24