Flash Flood Warning 64, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
122 PM MDT Sat Jul 25 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 100 PM MDT Sat Jul 25 2026

- There is a moderate to high risk of flash flooding from slow
  moving thunderstorms over portions of central and western NM
  through this weekend.

- Moderate to major heat risk will impact lower elevations of
  central and eastern New Mexico over the next seven days with
  high temperatures in the upper 90s to low 100s.

- Daily rounds of afternoon thunderstorms with frequent lightning,
  gusty winds, small hail, and localized heavy rainfall continues
  at varying coverages over the next seven days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 100 PM MDT Sat Jul 25 2026

The latest water vapor imagery and GOES derived winds shows deep
moisture draped across NM with the center of the monsoon high near
the Four Corners. The 18Z KABQ PWAT was 1.32" (just below the daily
record of 1.39" from 1968) with slow steering flow toward the west
and northwest. Showers and storms have developed over the higher
terrain and will continue expanding thru the afternoon. Abundant
moisture and instability with slow-moving storms will elevate the
risk for flash flooding, especially in areas that have received
recent heavy rains. The Flood Watch was expanded to include the
Middle and Lower RGV westward into the watch that was already in
effect. Rainfall rates in excess of 2"/hour are expected with the
stronger cells, along with strong downburst wind gusts, small hail,
and frequent lightning strikes. Several CAMs show storms tapering
off to showers thru late evening as an MCV feature rolls northwest
across central NM.

Storm placement Sunday is still likely to be focused over northern
and western NM, however the coverage is more uncertain. The monsoon
high will refocus over northeast NM Sunday and strengthen to near
599dm. H5 temps warm to near -3C over a larger area of central and
eastern NM with H7 temps between +18 and +22C. The remnant MCV near
west-central NM may amount to no more than persistent cloud cover
Sunday morning, which could limit coverage from less instability,
or, delay storms until later in the day. Areas surrounding the cloud
shield may erupt again by early to mid afternoon as long as updrafts
can overcome very warm mid level temps. The 12Z NAM and RRFS show
the central mt chain westward favored for the heavier QPF Sunday,
including the Ruidoso area. However, the HREF & REFS 6-hour LPMM
QPFs and NBM90th percentile QPF show an overall downtrend in the
heavier rainfall footprints Sunday. There are several conflicting
factors that do not warrant a Flood Watch at this time so latest
trends in 00Z/06Z guidance will be helpful to improve confidence.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 100 PM MDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Monday thru Friday will feature a typical late July monsoon pattern
with the upper level high migrating westward across northern NM to
the Four Corners region by late week. Daily rounds of showers and
storms will develop over the higher terrain then move into nearby
lowlands on convective outflows. High PWATs and slow storm motion
will still allow for locally heavy rainfall amounts >1.5". Northern
and western NM will be favored in this pattern with differences in
the overall coverage and intensity varying from day to day.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1120 AM MDT Sat Jul 25 2026

SHRA/TS will form over the high terrain thru 2pm today then move
erratically north and west into nearby lowlands thru this evening.
Direct hits will produce IFR/MVFR vsbys in heavy rain, outflow
wind gusts >35KT, and frequent lightning strikes. The main focus
today will stretch along and west of the central mt chain. Showers
are likely to persist thru 2am across western NM with partial
clearing elsewhere.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 100 PM MDT Sat Jul 25 2026

There are no critical fire weather concerns for the foreseeable
future. Patchy dry fuels across the region may still lead to new
fire starts from lightning strikes. A typical monsoon pattern will
focus the greatest chances for locally heavy rainfall across the
northern and western high terrain thru late next week. Storms will
form over the high terrain each day then move erratically into
nearby lowlands thru the afternoon and evening. Small footprints
with rainfall amounts of 1 to 2" may create flash flooding.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  68  97  68  97 /  30  20  20   5
Dulce...........................  55  94  55  94 /  30  60  20  50
Cuba............................  61  90  61  91 /  30  30  30  20
Gallup..........................  60  90  60  91 /  50  60  20  20
El Morro........................  59  86  59  87 /  60  60  30  30
Grants..........................  61  91  62  92 /  60  40  30  20
Quemado.........................  60  87  61  87 /  70  50  30  20
Magdalena.......................  67  89  66  91 /  30  40  20  10
Datil...........................  62  85  62  86 /  50  50  20  30
Reserve.........................  60  93  59  94 /  40  50  20  40
Glenwood........................  64  98  63  98 /  40  30  20  40
Chama...........................  54  86  54  86 /  20  60  20  70
Los Alamos......................  67  91  68  92 /  20  20  30  30
Pecos...........................  60  91  61  92 /  30  20  20  30
Cerro/Questa....................  61  89  60  89 /  10  30  40  50
Red River.......................  53  84  53  84 /  10  40  40  70
Angel Fire......................  50  85  51  85 /  10  40  30  60
Taos............................  59  92  59  92 /  20  20  30  30
Mora............................  58  90  59  90 /  20  30  20  60
Espanola........................  67  98  67  98 /  20  10  30  10
Santa Fe........................  66  91  67  92 /  20  10  20  10
Santa Fe Airport................  64  94  65  95 /  20  10  20   5
Albuquerque Foothills...........  71  98  72  99 /  40   5  20   5
Albuquerque Heights.............  68  99  69 100 /  30   5  20   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  68 100  68 102 /  30   0  20   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  70  98  71 100 /  30   0  20   0
Belen...........................  68  99  68 101 /  20   5  20   0
Bernalillo......................  69 100  70 101 /  30   5  20   0
Bosque Farms....................  66  98  67 100 /  20   5  20   0
Corrales........................  69 100  70 101 /  30   5  20   0
Los Lunas.......................  68  98  68 100 /  20   0  20   0
Placitas........................  69  96  70  97 /  30   5  20   5
Rio Rancho......................  69  99  70 100 /  30   5  20   0
Socorro.........................  73 101  73 103 /  30  10  10   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  64  91  65  93 /  40  10  20   5
Tijeras.........................  63  94  65  96 /  40  10  20   5
Edgewood........................  60  95  61  97 /  40  10  20  10
Moriarty/Estancia...............  58  95  59  96 /  30  10  20   5
Clines Corners..................  60  90  61  91 /  20  10  20  10
Mountainair.....................  61  93  61  95 /  30  10  10  10
Gran Quivira....................  63  91  63  93 /  30  10  10   5
Carrizozo.......................  68  94  69  97 /  20  10   5   5
Ruidoso.........................  64  87  64  89 /  20  30   5  30
Capulin.........................  60  93  60  92 /   5  10  20  40
Raton...........................  59  98  59  97 /   5  10  20  30
Springer........................  61  99  61  98 /   5   5  20  20
Las Vegas.......................  60  93  61  93 /  20  10  20  20
Clayton.........................  69 101  70 103 /   0   0   5   5
Roy.............................  65  95  65  96 /   5   0  10   0
Conchas.........................  70 103  70 105 /   5   0  10   0
Santa Rosa......................  66  98  67  99 /   5   0  10   0
Tucumcari.......................  72 103  72 105 /  10   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  69 100  69 103 /  10   0   0   0
Portales........................  70 101  70 103 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  70 100  71 103 /   5   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  74 102  74 105 /   5   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  68  96  68  99 /  10  10   5  10
Elk.............................  65  93  65  96 /   5  20   5  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ202-204>209-219-
220-241.

Flood Watch until 6 PM MDT this evening for NMZ226.

&&

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...42