Flash Flood Warning 200, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
541 PM MDT Fri Sep 25 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 539 PM MDT Fri Sep 25 2026

- Areas with ongoing areal flooding across southeastern NM will
  see more scattered afternoon storms through tonight. A low
  chance of secondary flash flooding exists.

- Drier conditions are on tap this weekend.

- Another surge of monsoon moisture and thunderstorm chances
  increase late Sunday night into Monday, resulting in another
  stretch of increased flash flooding risk through Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 1256 PM MDT Fri Sep 25 2026

An ongoing flash flood threat will persist mainly across
southeastern New Mexico today into tonight, where the last 24
hours of heavy rainfall has produced widespread 1-2 inch totals
with locally higher amounts of 4-6 inches across portions of
Lincoln and Roosevelt Counties and even upwards of 10 inches
across portions of Curry County. A mid- to upper-level trough/low
will continue to weaken and shift northeast this afternoon, with
scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms developing across
much of New Mexico. Drier air filtering into the region should
keep coverage lower compared to recent days, however, sufficient
low-level moisture and instability remain in place across eastern
and southeastern New Mexico which raises concerns. A few storms
could become strong since there is lingering instability and
modest shear. Given the saturated conditions across southeastern
New Mexico, even isolated storms could produce renewed flooding in
areas still reeling from flooding impacts from last night's
rainfall. Locals in these areas should be weather aware and have
multiple ways to receive flash flood warnings. Heed local
authorities, and only travel if absolutely necessary.

A gradual decrease in shower and thunderstorm activity is expected
after midnight tonight and into the weekend as subsidence from a
building 591 dam ridge and drier air overspread the region.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 1256 PM MDT Fri Sep 25 2026

After a relatively quiet weekend, things take a turn to become
more active late on Sunday as a deep Pacific trough digs southward
along the West Coast and begins to tap into increasingly rich
moisture associated with Hurricane Polo and the remnants of
Odalys. Increasing southwesterly flow aloft and large-scale
ascent will support a return of showers and thunderstorms Sunday
evening, initially over western New Mexico and the Continental
Divide before spreading eastward and becoming more widespread
Monday and Tuesday as the trough closes off.

With the influence of this tropical moisture plume, PWATs are
forecast to reach well above seasonal normals, with the NAEFS and
ENS Standard Anomalies indicating above normal PWATs across
portions of the region by roughly 2-4 standard deviations. The
combination of anomalous moisture, instability, and increasing
upper-level forcing should support periods of moderate to heavy
rainfall. Storms may also become more organized as stronger flow
aloft overspreads the region, introducing a potential severe
weather component in addition to the flash flood threat.

Flash flooding is still our main concern at this time,
particularly across areas that will remain saturated from this
week's rainfall. Additional rainfall of 1-3 inches will be
possible across portions of New Mexico, with locally higher
totals where storms train or repeatedly affect the same
locations. This could result in renewed flash flooding as well as
rises on area streams, tributaries, and river. WPC has maintained
a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall and flash flooding across
much of the area during the early part of next week.

It is worth mentioning that there is still uncertainty regarding
the exact evolution and track of the trough/low and tropical
remnants, even though long-term deterministic, ensemble, and AI
guidance have come into slightly better agreement with the most
recent 12Z runs. All that to say, the location and magnitude of
the heaviest rainfall may likely change with subsequent guidance.
Nonetheless, confidence is increasing in a wetter and more active
pattern beginning Sunday evening and continuing through at least
Tuesday, with conditions potentially remaining unsettled into
midweek.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 539 PM MDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms continue across
portions of central and eastern NM late this afternoon. These
storms will continue to track east-northeastward through the
evening. A few storms will produce small hail and very heavy
rainfall. Brief MVFR to IFR cigs/vsbys are expected in the
stronger storms. Gradual clearing is expected from west to east
overnight, however, patchy fog and/or low clouds may develop. The
best chances for low clouds or fog exist at KROW early Saturday
morning, but can't rule it out in lower elevations areas across
central and western NM as well. After the remaining storms
diminish or move out of the area late tonight, a much quieter day
is in store for Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1256 PM MDT Fri Sep 25 2026

There are no fire weather concerns through the next week as abundant
monsoonal moisture tracks across the state. Aside from Saturday's
and most of Sunday's drier conditions, each day has notable
shower and thunderstorm chances across the state. Main threats
will be gusty winds, lightning, and locally heavy rainfall
threatening flash flooding, notably over recent burn scars.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  47  80  50  80 /   5   0   0   5
Dulce...........................  44  74  45  75 /  40   0   0   0
Cuba............................  48  71  49  72 /  40   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  41  79  42  77 /  10   0   0   5
El Morro........................  45  72  47  71 /  30   0   0   5
Grants..........................  41  77  41  76 /  40   0   0   5
Quemado.........................  47  75  50  73 /  10   0   0  20
Magdalena.......................  50  74  52  74 /  40   0   0  10
Datil...........................  47  73  49  72 /   5   0   0  10
Reserve.........................  51  79  53  77 /   0   0   0  10
Glenwood........................  58  83  60  82 /   0   0   0  10
Chama...........................  41  68  43  69 /  50   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  51  71  56  74 /  40   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  49  73  49  74 /  40   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  44  69  44  71 /  20   0   0   0
Red River.......................  39  62  39  64 /  20   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  37  69  30  70 /  40   0   0   0
Taos............................  43  75  40  77 /  20   0   0   0
Mora............................  47  72  48  72 /  40   0   0   0
Espanola........................  51  77  52  78 /  50   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  48  76  47  77 /  40   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  49  78  48  80 /  40   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  54  79  56  81 /  60   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  56  80  58  81 /  60   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  57  81  59  82 /  60   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  55  80  57  81 /  60   0   0   0
Belen...........................  56  79  57  80 /  60   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  55  80  56  81 /  60   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  56  79  57  80 /  60   0   0   0
Corrales........................  55  80  57  81 /  60   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  56  78  57  79 /  60   0   0   0
Placitas........................  53  78  54  80 /  60   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  55  77  56  78 /  60   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  55  82  55  83 /  20   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  50  70  52  73 /  60   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  52  72  53  75 /  60   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  49  74  48  77 /  60   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  45  78  41  82 /  60   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  48  75  50  77 /  50   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  52  73  52  75 /  30   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  53  73  53  76 /  30   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  57  77  58  79 /  30   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  53  72  54  74 /  30   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  50  73  50  75 /  10   0   0   0
Raton...........................  46  80  46  82 /  10   0   0   0
Springer........................  50  78  50  80 /   5   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  47  78  47  78 /  20   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  57  81  57  82 /   5   0   0   0
Roy.............................  53  78  54  78 /  20   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  60  84  58  85 /  30   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  59  82  58  83 /  20   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  61  87  57  89 /  30   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  59  85  57  85 /  30   0   0   0
Portales........................  61  84  60  87 /  30   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  61  85  60  86 /  40   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  62  91  59  91 /  30   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  57  82  59  83 /  30   0   0   0
Elk.............................  55  79  56  80 /  20   0   0   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for NMZ226-235-236-
238>240.

&&

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...34

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