Flash Flood Warning 187, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
159 PM MDT Thu Sep 24 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1226 PM MDT Thu Sep 24 2026

- A dangerous surge of monsoon moisture continues to bring
  widespread heavy rains today threatening flash flooding, as
  well as some main stem river and tributary flooding.

- The monsoon moisture surge will continue at a less intense pace
  Friday with a continued threat of locally heavy rainfall, even
  as rain amounts begin to trend downward.

- After drier weather this weekend, monsoon moisture and
  thunderstorm chances will increase again and bring more soaking
  rain Sunday night into Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 1226 PM MDT Thu Sep 24 2026

We are continuing to watch a disturbance lift northward from
Mexico this afternoon, as it supports another round of showers
and thunderstorms primarily across southern and eastern New
Mexico. The greatest area of concern remains across the southeast,
where above normal moisture and sufficient instability favors
convection capable of producing locally heavy rainfall. When
combined with 30-40 knots of shear, training and backbuilding
cells are expected to expand in coverage over the next several
hours. With this in mind, WPC has upgraded portions of Lincoln
and Chaves Counties to a Moderate Risk for excessive rainfall.
High-res guidance indicates the potential for rainfall rates
of 1-2 inches per hour, and localized totals up to 2-4 inches.
Given the wet antecedent conditions from rainfall over the last
48 hours, even modest additional rainfall could result in flash
flooding. In fact, the HREF and RRFS show a 30-50% chance of 100
year QPF ARI exceedance through 6 PM across the aforementioned
southeastern areas. Precipitation coverage elsewhere will be more
scattered in nature, mainly across the central mountain chain and
into northern portions of the state through the afternoon and
evening until a secondary wave of showers and storms looks to move
in after midnight tonight. The existing Flood Watch will continue
across southeastern New Mexico up into Quay County through 6 AM
tomorrow morning.

An incoming mid-level low rotating across the Four Corners region
will result in another increase in showers and thunderstorms
across western and northern New Mexico tomorrow before a decrease
in activity is expected Friday night into Saturday. More on this
below!

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1226 PM MDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Drier air will spread eastward across the CWA Saturday in tandem
with 591 dam ridge, keeping conditions quiet and warmer than we
have experienced over the last several days. This quiet period
will be brief, as a strong trough begins to dig in from the
Pacific coast Sunday and Monday. South-southwesterly flow ahead
of this trough will begin to draw moisture back into the region,
with shower and thunderstorm chances increasing once again late
Sunday and moreso on Monday.

By this point, confidence in forecast trends begins to lower due
to spread in model solutions, particularly in regards to the
evolution of the trough and moisture plume influence from
Hurricane Polo in the eastern Pacific. A slower progression of the
trough would favor a wetter scenario as the ECMWF deterministic
and ensemble models are showcasing, whereas a faster progression
like what the GFS and GFS Ens show would result in a quicker
return to drier conditions. For now, expect precipitation chances
to peak sometime Monday into Tuesday before the trough traverses
eastward and a drier pattern takes hold by mid to late week.
Details will be refined in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1140 AM MDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop again across
the state this afternoon, with much of the precipitation to be
focused across portions of northern, north-central, and
southeastern NM. By the overnight hours, a swath of showers and
storms is expected to progress northward from Mexico, with KABQ,
KAEG, and KROW the most likely to experience thunderstorm
activity. TSRA at KSAF may need to be added next cycle if
probabilities increase. Reductions in CIGs and VSBYs to MVFR/IFR
levels is expected at the aforementioned sites as a result of the
precipitation. Outside of thunderstorm driven outflow gusts, winds
will generally remain at 10 knots or less.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1226 PM MDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Fire weather concerns are not expected through the next week.
Plentiful moisture with repeated rounds of shower and
thunderstorm activity continues across much of the state the
remainder of today and through Friday afternoon. Drier air
briefly shuffles in on Saturday before the next round of showers
and storms moves across the state Sunday and Monday, with
precipitation potentially lingering into the middle parts of next
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  51  76  48  80 /  30  50  10   0
Dulce...........................  49  67  45  73 /  70  70  20   0
Cuba............................  50  66  50  71 /  30  70  30   0
Gallup..........................  44  75  41  78 /  60  30  20   0
El Morro........................  48  68  47  72 /  50  40  20   0
Grants..........................  46  73  42  79 /  50  60  20   0
Quemado.........................  50  71  49  73 /  60  30  10   0
Magdalena.......................  52  70  51  74 /  80  60  20   0
Datil...........................  50  69  48  72 /  60  30  10   0
Reserve.........................  53  74  52  78 /  80  10   5   0
Glenwood........................  57  78  58  82 /  80  20   5   0
Chama...........................  46  61  42  67 /  80  80  30   0
Los Alamos......................  51  66  51  73 /  40  60  30   5
Pecos...........................  51  67  49  72 /  60  70  30   0
Cerro/Questa....................  47  64  43  69 /  60  60  50   0
Red River.......................  42  57  39  62 /  70  50  40   0
Angel Fire......................  41  64  35  69 /  70  60  40   0
Taos............................  46  71  42  76 /  60  60  40   0
Mora............................  49  67  46  72 /  50  60  20   0
Espanola........................  54  72  51  76 /  40  50  30   0
Santa Fe........................  50  71  48  76 /  50  70  30   0
Santa Fe Airport................  52  73  49  78 /  40  70  30   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  56  74  54  80 /  50  60  40   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  58  76  56  81 /  50  50  40   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  59  77  57  82 /  50  50  40   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  57  76  56  82 /  50  60  30   0
Belen...........................  58  75  58  78 /  60  60  40   0
Bernalillo......................  57  75  56  80 /  50  60  40   0
Bosque Farms....................  58  75  58  79 /  60  50  40   0
Corrales........................  58  75  56  81 /  50  60  40   0
Los Lunas.......................  58  74  58  78 /  60  50  40   0
Placitas........................  55  74  53  79 /  50  60  40   0
Rio Rancho......................  57  73  56  77 /  50  60  40   0
Socorro.........................  56  77  57  81 /  90  60  30   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  53  66  51  70 /  50  60  40   0
Tijeras.........................  54  68  53  72 /  50  60  40   0
Edgewood........................  51  71  50  74 /  50  60  40   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  48  76  47  79 /  50  60  30   0
Clines Corners..................  50  71  49  76 /  60  70  40   0
Mountainair.....................  53  69  53  73 /  80  70  40   0
Gran Quivira....................  53  69  55  73 /  90  70  30   0
Carrizozo.......................  57  71  58  76 /  90  60  20   0
Ruidoso.........................  53  68  53  72 /  90  70  10   0
Capulin.........................  52  67  49  74 /  80  50  20   0
Raton...........................  49  74  47  81 /  90  40  20   0
Springer........................  54  73  50  79 /  70  60  10   0
Las Vegas.......................  48  72  46  77 /  70  60  20   0
Clayton.........................  59  72  57  81 /  70  60  10   0
Roy.............................  56  70  53  78 /  80  70  30   0
Conchas.........................  61  77  60  84 /  80  80  40   0
Santa Rosa......................  59  75  59  82 /  80  70  40   0
Tucumcari.......................  61  79  59  87 /  80  80  30   0
Clovis..........................  60  76  59  84 /  80  80  40   0
Portales........................  62  76  61  84 /  80  80  40   0
Fort Sumner.....................  62  77  61  84 /  80  60  40   0
Roswell.........................  63  81  61  88 /  70  60  30   0
Picacho.........................  59  75  57  81 /  80  80  20   5
Elk.............................  57  73  55  78 /  90  60  10   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through late tonight for NMZ226-234>240.

&&

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...23

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