Severe Thunderstorm Warning 18, NWS Las Vegas, NV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
143 PM PDT Tue Jun 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
expected each day this week, but chances and coverage decrease each
day. Flash Flood Watch in effect for San Bernardino, Clark, and
Mohave counties today, as stronger storms will have very high rain
rates. In addition to heavy rain, frequent lightning and gusty
erratic winds can be expected this afternoon. The region will
gradually dry out through the remainder of the week as temperatures
climb into the weekend.
&&

.SHORT TERM...Today and Wednesday.

A cut-off low off the southern California coast will push inland and
through our forecast area tonight into Wednesday as it weakens into
an open wave. Meanwhile, remnant anomalous moisture over the region
(250-300% of normal) will couple with clear skies and daytime
heating to increase afternoon instability to over 1000 J/kg of CAPE
across portions of the Mojave Desert. Thunderstorm activity has
already begun over the mountains of our forecast area this
afternoon. Activity will increase in coverage through the day, with
best chances in a line from Ridgecrest through Las Vegas into
central Mohave County. These best chances will then shift southward
through the remainder of the afternoon and evening as the center of
the low begins to push through Sonora, adding additional dynamics to
the atmosphere. These thunderstorms will be very moisture-efficient,
quickly turning our +1 inch of PWAT into heavy rain. As a result, a
Flash Flood Watch has been issued for San Bernardino, Clark, and
Mohave counties through 5am tonight / Wednesday morning. The largest
flash flood concerns will exist on lake beaches, in slot canyons,
and for communities living within concrete washes. In addition to
heavy rain, SPC Mesoanalysis shows very high forecast DCAPE (over
1500 J/kg)) over the next few hours in southern Inyo / northern San
Bernardino counties due to continued dry low levels. While strong
gusty winds from thunderstorms are expected areawide, the greatest
chances for severe-level wind gusts exist in these areas.

This open wave will push into Arizona overnight tonight into
Wednesday, putting us in the top west quadrant of the low. Though
this position of the low won't lend to as great of dynamics in the
Mojave Desert as today, the amount of remnant moisture (200-250% of
normal) combined with daytime heating will return scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms to much of the forecast area Wednesday
afternoon. Additionally, the resultant northwest flow aloft will
allow for a shortwave trough to push into the southwestern Great
Basin on Wednesday. The associated weak cold front will provide
additional dynamics to the southern Great Basin, returning isolated
thunderstorm chances to that region as well. Will continue to assess
the need for a Flash Flood Watch for portions of our forecast area
tomorrow, with the best chances existing in Mohave County.

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday.

General troughing with embedded shortwaves continues across the
Desert Southwest through the remainder of the work week as two areas
of high pressure build around us. This troughing will allow for
continued precipitation chances each afternoon as anomalous moisture
slowly scours out of the region, with chances confining to eastern
Lincoln and dropping below 10 percent by Friday. The ridging
surrounding us will allow heights to rise despite our troughing,
resulting in temperatures climbing through the weekend. Expect
widespread "Moderate" (Level 2 on a scale of 0 to 4) HeatRisk by
Sunday, with "High" HeatRisk in the lowest valleys.
&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast Package...
Increasing confidence that convection will impact all valley
sites today. Thunderstorms will develop on the nearby terrain
after 18Z which will them shift into the valleys after 21Z.
Thunderstorms today could produce gusty erratic winds. The highest
risk for outflows exist between 21Z and 02Z when gusts over 30KT
are possible. In addition to gusty erratic winds, thunderstorms
could produce moderate to heavy rain, reduced visibility due to heavy
rain or blowing dust, lightning, and CIGS below 10kft. Precipitation
and the potential for convective impacts will diminish after 03Z
tonight. Additional convection is possible Wednesday after 18Z in
and around the valley which would produce similar impacts to
today. Outside of convective influence, winds will be similar to
yesterday with light east winds becoming southeast this afternoon.
Low confidence in the wind forecast between 03Z and 06Z as
direction and speeds may be influenced by afternoon outflows. By
08Z, it's likely that typical diurnal winds will return and
continue through Wednesday morning. East to southeast winds will
set up Wednesday afternoon but could again be influenced by
convection and outflows after 21Z.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwestern Arizona and
southeastern California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon,
with the most widespread convection expected along and south of
the I-15 as well as in the Sierra. Convection will then shift
south into the Colorado River and Mohave County after 00Z.
Thunderstorm impacts are possible at all TAF sites this
afternoon, and convection today could produce erratic wind gusts
over 30KT, moderate to heavy rain, reduced visibility due to heavy
rain or blowing dust, lightning, and CIGS below 10kft.
Precipitation will diminish after 03Z, with dry conditions
expected across the region by 08Z. After a dry night, additional
showers and thunderstorms should develop after 18Z, mainly in far
southern Nevada and western Arizona. Outside of convective
influence, expected south to southwest winds around 10KT to
develop this afternoon across the region, which will diminish
after sunset. Light winds following similar trends will return
Wednesday morning and afternoon.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

DISCUSSION...Soulat
AVIATION...Nickerson

For more forecast information...see us on our webpage:
https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
329 PM PDT Tue Jun 3 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0307 PM     Hail             1 SW The Strip          36.10N 115.19W
06/03/2025  M1.00 Inch       Clark              NV   Trained Spotter

            Trained spotter reported quarter sized hail
            at Tropicana and Valley View.

&&

JS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
331 PM PDT Tue Jun 3 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0311 PM     Hail             2 SW The Strip          36.10N 115.19W
06/03/2025  E1.00 Inch       Clark              NV   Public

            Report from mPING: Quarter (1.00 in.).

&&

JS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
345 PM PDT Tue Jun 3 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0335 PM     Flash Flood      4 NNW Twentynine Palms  34.19N 116.09W
06/03/2025                   San Bernardino     CA   Law Enforcement

            5 cars stuck in flooded water on Indian
            Trail and Morongo Road.

&&

SOULAT