Flash Flood Warning 11, NWS Las Vegas, NV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
351 PM PDT Tue May 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Showers and thunderstorms continue today and tonight,
bringing periods of moderate rainfall, frequent lightning, and gusty
winds. Warmer and drier conditions return once the system exits
Wednesday night. High temperatures will be well above average by
this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Showers and thunderstorms are once again beginning
to develop late this morning. Initially they should favor Lincoln
and Mohave Counties and less so Clark County through the mid
afternoon hours. The main trigger will be a closed low dropping
southward from northern Nevada, which should move into Clark County
by late afternoon. Many of the hi-res models indicate a vort lobe
rotating around the main upper low and moving eastward across San
Bernardino County will initiate some more organized convective
activity by late afternoon. These showers and thunderstorms should
push to the east and reach the lower CRV by the evening hours.
Rainfall rates may be a bit heavier with these storms and they will
be capable of producing a quick 0.5-1.0 inches of rainfall. This
area of convection will then move into southern Mohave County toward
midnight and then continue into the overnight hours before waning
by daybreak.

The main upper low will move into Arizona on Wednesday and slowly
move to the east. It will be close enough to help trigger some
additional showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday afternoon mainly
across Mohave County. PW values will be decreasing as well as
rainfall rates.

A large scale ridge will begin to build across the Western US on
Thursday bringing drier conditions and a notable warming trend.

&&

.LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday.

With the ridge of high pressure in firm control the temperatures
will climb several degrees through Saturday, and top out roughly 10-
15 degrees above normal by Saturday and Sunday. There is about a 30
percent chance of reaching 100 in Las Vegas on Saturday and Sunday.
If we do reach 100 it would be the earliest 100 since 2020. In lower
elevations such as the Colorado River Valley and Death Valley, a
return to triple digit temps is a virtual certainty.

Sunday onward, a trough will begin to develop off the coast of the
PacNW and may slowly creep inland next week. There is a fair amount
of uncertainty in how deep this trough will be and how quickly it
will shift inland. As such, confidence is fairly low in the details
but a slight cooling trend may begin as early as Monday along with a
return of at least breezy conditions Sunday into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 00Z Forecast Package...One
final round of thunderstorms will be possible this evening through
about 05Z. The main concerns will be erratic gusty winds, low
ceilings, and reduced visibility in rain. Ceilings should rise
thereafter, with clouds scattering out by morning. Very little
confidence in the winds until midnight.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 00Z Forecast Package...The main concern for
this period will be showers and thunderstorms in Lincoln, Clark, San
Bernardino, and Mohave counties. These storms will move south and
east early this evening and could persist into Wednesday in areas
well southeast of Interstate 15. The main concerns with storms will
be erratic gusty winds, low ceilings with terrain obscuration, and
reduced visibility in rain. Farther northwest, VFR conditions are
expected overnight and into Wednesday.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

SHORT TERM...Czyzyk
LONG TERM...Czyzyk/Outler
AVIATION...Morgan

For more forecast information...see us on our webpage:
https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter