Severe Thunderstorm Warning 9, NWS Tucson, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
322 PM MST Wed Jul 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Monsoon moisture has arrived in Southeast Arizona.
Scattered to numerous thunderstorm activity will continue into the
evening with a heavy rain and localized flash flood threat along
with gusty outflow winds with areas of blowing dust. A drying trend
is expected for the July 4th holiday and this weekend with storm
coverage more isolated and focused on locales south of Tucson.
Temperatures will drop to near normal levels today, then below
normal to end the week before warming back up to above normal levels
this weekend into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing across an area of
enhanced moisture convergence over Santa Cruz, eastern Pima, and
Pinal counties as of this writing. Storms are continuing to fire
along this area of convergence from southeast Pinal county down to
the international border. Localized very heavy rainfall is expected
with storms that develop along with wind gusts around 35-45 mph
resulting in some blowing dust. Blowing Dust Advisory remains in
effect until 7 PM this evening. Further east, isolated showers and
thunderstorms have developed along the outflow of thunderstorms in
northeast Cochise County.

Through the rest of the afternoon into the evening outflow from
these storms will gradually form into an MCS and progress gently
westward into the lower deserts of Pima and Pinal counties before
trying to drift back east as it decays. Showers and isolated
thunderstorms will also be possible to the east across Cochise
county from these outflows, but the better chance resides west
across Pima county.

Looking ahead, tomorrow we will likely see a down day as the
atmosphere has become worked over and clouded from shower and
thunderstorm activity today. However, chances for scattered showers
and thunderstorms will return tomorrow before high pressure begins
to build back in for Independence Day weekend with decreasing
chances for precipitation and warming temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 04/00Z.
SCT-BKN 5-10k ft AGL thru 03/12Z becoming FEW-SCT 7-12k ft AGL
through the end of the valid period. Chances for scattered SHRA/TSRA
will continue through 03/07Z at KTUS and KOLS. Chances for isolated
SHRA/TSRA again tomorrow at all terminals after 03/19Z with CIGS BKN
5-8k ft AGL, gusty outflow winds up to 35 kts, and reduced
visibility due to localized BLDU. Aviation discussion not updated
for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Near to slightly below normal temperatures through
Saturday as deeper atmospheric moisture moves into Southeast
Arizona, then warming back up Sunday into early next week. Expect
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into
evening with locally heavy rainfall. Shower and thunderstorm chances
persist Thursday, then some drying will tend to lower thunderstorm
chances to around 15 to 30 percent Friday into the weekend with the
highest chances along the Int'l border. Winds generally light and
under 15 mph with the exception of gusty and erratic winds up to 35-
45 mph near any thunderstorms.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through 11 PM this evening for AZZ502>504-507-513>515.

Blowing Dust Advisory through 7 PM MST this evening for AZZ502-504-505.

&&

DVS

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
216 PM MST Wed Jul 2 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1235 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Patagonia               31.54N 110.76W
07/02/2025  M83 MPH          Santa Cruz         AZ   Mesonet

            Personal weather station gusted to 83 mph.

&&

JVT

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
440 PM MST Wed Jul 2 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1130 AM     Rain             5 W Patagonia           31.55N 110.83W
07/02/2025  M1.41 Inch       Santa Cruz         AZ   Public

            Amount fell in 30 minutes at the IJ Bar
            Ranch main building complex.

&&

LJT