Red Flag Warning 5, NWS Tucson, AZ

090 
WWUS85 KTWC 180825
RFWTWC

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
125 AM MST Tue Mar 18 2025

AZZ151-152-190300-
/O.CON.KTWC.FW.W.0005.250318T2000Z-250319T0300Z/
Arizona Fire Weather Zone 151
Western half Desert Grasslands FDRA including elevations up to
5500 feet in Southeast corner of Pinal County-
Extreme Eastern Pima County-Western third of Cochise County-
Santa Cruz County-TDC-Arizona Fire Weather Zone 152
Eastern half Desert Grasslands FDRA including elevations up to
5500 feet in Southwest Graham County and Eastern two thirds of
Cochise County-Southern San Carlos Reservation-
Southern Greenlee County below 5000 feet-TDC-
125 AM MST Tue Mar 18 2025

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS, LOW RELATIVE 
HUMIDITY AND A HIGH FIRE DANGER RATING FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 151
AND 152...

* AFFECTED AREA...Fire Weather Zones 151 and 152. This generally
  includes elevations below 5000 feet in Cochise, Graham and 
  southern Greenlee counties.

* TIMING...From 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM MST this evening.

* WINDS...West to northwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...9 to 14 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop or are ongoing will have the 
  potential to spread rapidly.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now...or are expected to develop. A
combination of strong winds...low relative humidity...and dry
vegetation will create the potential for rapid and erratic fire
growth.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in the
field of the Red Flag Warning for portions of Southeast Arizona.

&&

$$

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710 
WWUS85 KTWC 190256
RFWTWC

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
756 PM MST Tue Mar 18 2025

AZZ151-152-190400-
/O.EXP.KTWC.FW.W.0005.000000T0000Z-250319T0300Z/
Arizona Fire Weather Zone 151
Western half Desert Grasslands FDRA including elevations up to
5500 feet in Southeast corner of Pinal County-
Extreme Eastern Pima County-Western third of Cochise County-
Santa Cruz County-TDC-Arizona Fire Weather Zone 152
Eastern half Desert Grasslands FDRA including elevations up to
5500 feet in Southwest Graham County and Eastern two thirds of
Cochise County-Southern San Carlos Reservation-
Southern Greenlee County below 5000 feet-TDC-
756 PM MST Tue Mar 18 2025

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM MST THIS EVENING...

The critical fire weather conditions have subsided and therefore,
the Red Flag Warning will be allowed to expire at 8 pm.

$$

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
342 AM MST Mon Mar 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Temperatures today will be six to ten degrees above
normal with breezy afternoon conditions to the south and east of
Tucson. A dry weather system moving across southeast Arizona
tomorrow will bring much cooler weather and breezy to windy
conditions leading to areas of blowing dust. Temperatures will
rebound to near normal Wednesday and return above normal for the
latter half of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...High clouds have been on the increase since yesterday
evening ahead of a predominately dry upper level trough and cold
front which is forecast to move through the area tomorrow. Ahead of
this feature today expect noticeably warmer temperatures areawide
with breezy conditions mainly to the southeast of Tucson. Highs
temperatures are forecast to top out in the low to mid 80s. Behind
this feature tomorrow high temperatures will be drastically
cooler with highs only topping out in the 60s areawide.

Other than the sensible weather roller coaster, the main forecast
focus for Tuesday is on how the trough passage will impact the
potential for blowing dust and elevated fire weather concerns.
Forecast guidance has remained consistent in that the pressure
gradient will be maximized in our area along the Arizona and New
Mexico state line tomorrow. Decided to hold off on a wind advisory
at this time. HREF/SREF/NBM probabilities continue to suggest
that most wind impacts will remain east of our area in New Mexico.
That being said, nudged the forecast wind speeds up a bit to
better match other guidance. Sustained west to northwest winds of
15 to 25 mph with gusts to 40 mph can be expected in the Gila
River Valley and along the Arizona and New Mexico state line.

Patchy blowing dust could result across dust prone areas, especially
along the Interstate 10 corridor and nearby roadways in Cochise,
Graham, and Greenlee counties. These areas could be impacted by
reduced visibilities in dense dust channels and areas of blowing
dust.

Although the trough will be predominately dry, a rain or snow shower
or two cannot be ruled out over the White Mountains and areas near
Hannagan meadow Tuesday afternoon which could enhance afternoon wind
gusts, especially for the high country.

Highs Tuesday will turn roughly eight to 14 degrees cooler, followed
by a warm up to near normal temperatures Wednesday. Highs will
continue to warm to a few degrees above normal by weeks end with
light winds to afternoon breezes forecast each day.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 18/12Z.
SCT-BKN250 through 18/09Z and FEW-SCT150 from 18/01Z through 18/09Z
becoming FEW thereafter. SFC winds becoming WLY at 10-20kts with
gusts to 25 kts mainly east of TUS becoming terrain driven and less
than 10 kts after 18/04Z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
Amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...An approaching weather system will maintain
scattered cloudcover today. Breezy west to northwest 20-ft winds
will develop by mid morning through end of the day for most lowland
areas. Highs tomorrow turn 8-14 degrees cooler, with breezy to
locally windy conditions on tap. Slight chance of a rain or snow
shower for the White Mountains on tomorrow afternoon with some
afternoon convection forecast over this area. Convective downdrafts
a good possibility in this environment.

Critical fire conditions will develop across some lowland areas on
Cochise, souther Grant and Greenlee counties, however given good
improved fuel moistures from our last couple of systems, do not feel
a RFW is warranted at this time for tomorrow. Warmer weather returns
starting Wednesday, with above normal temperatures by Thursday. Min
RH Monday will range will range from the single digits deserts to
near 20% mountains. Min RH Tuesday ranges from the low teens deserts
to 30-35% mountains with healthy overnight recoveries forecast. We
see a quick return to drier conditions starting Wednesday through
the end of the week with breezy afternoons each day.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

DVS

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