Red Flag Warning 14, NWS Tucson, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
130 AM MST Sun May 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...High temperatures will be well above normal through
Monday, cooling to below normal levels mid to late next week. Breezy
to windy southwest winds Monday through Wednesday of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Breezy winds continue early this morning, weakening
this afternoon by around 1400 MST. High pressure aloft and above
normal temperatures will continue across the region into Monday.
Temperatures will warm another 3-5 degrees today, with highs 8-11
degrees above normal. Areas from Tucson westward will top out at
100+ degrees, leading to a Moderate HeatRisk. Low to high clouds
will move into the region this morning making for a warm, dry and
partly cloudy kind of day.

The current high pressure will begin to regress southeastward
tomorrow night into Monday morning, replaced by a fairly strong
low pressure system that will move in from the Pacific Northwest.
This low pressure system along with the placement of high pressure
in the southern Plains will lead to breezy winds Monday afternoon
and especially Tuesday afternoon. The low will not dip far enough
south, only reaching to the Great Basin region, thus there will
be no precipitation for our area. However, it will cool
temperatures to near to slightly below normal by mid to late this
upcoming week and bring general cloudiness.

Due to the enhanced winds, dry conditions, and dry fuels this has
lead to near to critical fire weather conditions Monday and
Tuesday afternoons. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for our
eastern Fire Weather Zones Monday (all of zones 152 and 153 and
eastern portions of 151 and 154), with a Fire Weather Watch for
all Fire Weather Zones Tuesday (150, 151, 152, 153 and 154).
Please refer to the Fire Weather Planning Forecast (FWF) for more
information.

After the passage of the early week low pressure system there will
be general troughiness in the region for the following several
days. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has a 40-50 percent
chance of temperatures learning below normal for days 6 though
10. As of now, it doesn't appear there will be any precipitation
associated with the upcoming patter so the theme of dry, warm, and
afternoon windiness shall continue.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 12/12Z.
SKC this morning becoming FEW AOA 20k to 25k ft AGL by 11/16Z.
Clouds will increase to FEW to SCT by 11/21Z AOA 15k to 20k ft AGL
persisting throughout the remainder of the forecast period.
Southeast SFC winds 8 to 12 kts this morning weakening to 5 to 10
kts and shifting to from the southwest by 11/21Z. By 12/07Z, and
for the remainder of the forecast period, SFC winds will be light
and variable. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...High pressure aloft and warm temperatures will
continue through Monday, with highs 8-11 degrees above normal.
Winds will shift around to the southwest this afternoon. A storm
system will then move to our north early to mid next week. This
will result in temperatures lowering to near to slightly below
normal mid to late next week.

This system will bring strong and gusty southwest winds the first
half of next week. Near critical to critical fire weather conditions
are expected as early as Monday afternoon, with widespread critical
fire weather conditions Tuesday and Wednesday. A Fire Weather Watch
is in effect for the eastern Fire Weather Zones Monday (all of zones
152 and 153 and eastern portions of 151 and 154), with a Fire
Weather Watch for all Fire Weather Zones on Tuesday (150, 151, 152,
153 and 154).

&&

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening
for AZZ150>154.

Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
for AZZ151>154.

&&

Malarkey

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