Flash Flood Warning 52, NWS Tucson, AZ

178 
WGUS75 KTWC 170051
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
551 PM MST Tue Sep 16 2025

AZC019-170130-
/O.CON.KTWC.FF.W.0052.000000T0000Z-250917T0130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Pima AZ-
551 PM MST Tue Sep 16 2025

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM MST THIS 
EVENING FOR EASTERN PIMA COUNTY...

At 551 PM MST, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing 
between 1 and 2 inches of heavy rain across the Middle Tanque Verde 
Creek basin near Saguaro National Monument East. Flash flooding is 
ongoing or expected to begin shortly along drainages that fill into 
the Middle Tanque Verde Creek near Speedway Boulevard.

HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing
         flash flooding.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams,
         urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Tucson, Tanque Verde, Saguaro National Park East and Catalina 
  Foothills.

This includes the following Flash Flood Prone Locations...
Wentworth Rd at Tanque Verde Wash, Tanque Verde Loop Rd at Tanque 
Verde Wash and Freeman Rd between Broadway and Old Spanish Trail.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3218 11074 3216 11070 3217 11067 3220 11062
      3223 11063 3224 11068 3225 11068 3224 11071
      3224 11073 3225 11074 3224 11078 3226 11082
      3225 11082 3223 11078 3223 11077 3224 11076
      3223 11076

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

GLZ

869 
WGUS75 KTWC 170130
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
630 PM MST Tue Sep 16 2025

AZC019-170140-
/O.EXP.KTWC.FF.W.0052.000000T0000Z-250917T0130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Pima AZ-
630 PM MST Tue Sep 16 2025

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR EASTERN PIMA COUNTY...

The heavy rain has ended. Flash flooding is no longer expected to 
pose a threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

&&

LAT...LON 3218 11074 3216 11070 3217 11067 3220 11062
      3223 11063 3224 11068 3225 11068 3224 11071
      3224 11073 3225 11074 3224 11078 3226 11082
      3225 11082 3223 11078 3223 11077 3224 11076
      3223 11076

$$

GLZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
110 PM MST Tue Sep 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Moisture has moved into the region which will lead to
scattered showers and thunderstorms through the end of the work week
with gradually diminishing thunderstorm chances over the weekend.
Temperatures near to just below normal into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Partly cloudy skies this afternoon across southeast
Arizona with isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm activity
now getting underway mainly across Santa Cruz, Cochise, Graham and
Greenlee Counties. Moisture levels are above normal for this of year
with the 18Z KTWC sounding showing a PWAT of 1.28 inches with PWAT
values across the forecast area ranging from about 120 to 140
percent of normal. Modest instability on the 18Z KTWC with MLCAPE
around 200-300 J/KG, though this should increase and range from 500-
1000 J/KG from Tucson south and eastward this afternoon. Moisture
import will continue over the next few days with help from TS Mario
and eventual remnants. Mario is currently located about 465 miles
west of the southern tip of Baja California and continues to move NW
but is forecast to weaken into a remnant low by tomorrow. For storms
this afternoon into evening, individual storms will move slowly
towards the north to west with the main concerns being locally heavy
rain with isolated flash flooding threat and gusty outflow winds.

An active period of weather for mid September will continue over the
next few days as additional moisture translates northward into our
forecast area, especially the western half where PWATs will be up to
around 1.5 to 1.7 inches Wednesday through Friday. These values are
up to around 150 to 180 percent of normal. In terms of thunderstorm
development, moisture availability will certainly be there. Mid
level support broadly looks more favorable Wednesday for
thunderstorms compared to today. The HREF is focusing on areas from
Tucson westward with locally heavy rain and isolated flash flooding
being the main threat. Biggest uncertainty for Wednesday (and
beyond) is how much pre-existing cloud cover will limit stronger
convective development which would mean precipitation is more
showery in nature with just some embedded thunderstorms. By Thursday
and Friday, the mid level remnants from Mario will shift into
California with mid level west to southwest flow becoming more
prevalent. Given the deep moisture in place, any disturbances in
this flow pattern will aid in thunderstorm development.

Drier air aloft will gradually increase over the weekend as the flow
becomes more west to even potentially northwesterly with ridging to
our south to southwest. This will result in gradually reduced
precipitation chances this weekend with mostly dry conditions by
early next week. We should note that the NHC does have a 90% chance
of tropical cyclone formation off the coast of southwestern Mexico
over the next 5 days but at this time it looks like this system will
have little to no impact for us.

Temperatures will generally be near to slightly below normal through
the weekend, warming up to slightly above normal levels early next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 18/00Z.
SCT-BKN clouds 6k-10k ft AGL through the period with a BKN-OVC layer
AOA 20k ft AGL thru the end of the valid period. Scattered TSRA
mainly from KTUS south and eastward through 17/04Z. With showers and
thunderstorms, expect locally heavy rainfall and erratic winds up to
45 kts. Other than thunderstorm driven winds, SFC winds will be from
the east southeast 5-10 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Above normal moisture this week leading to min RH 20-
40 percent through the weekend. Expect scattered shower and
thunderstorm chances (30-60 pct chance) each day through Friday,
then gradually diminishing thunderstorm chances this weekend into
early next week. 20-foot winds will be 8-12 mph with some
afternoon/early evening gusts to around 20 mph over the next week.
with normal diurnal patterns through the weekend.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

GL

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
238 PM MST Tue Sep 16 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1126 AM     Hail             1 NE Benson             31.97N 110.29W
09/12/2025  E1.00 Inch       Cochise            AZ   Public

            Delayed report. Relayed via social media.

&&

AJE