Flash Flood Warning 37, NWS Tucson, AZ

688 
WGUS75 KTWC 200140
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
640 PM MST Tue Aug 19 2025

AZC003-200245-
/O.CON.KTWC.FF.W.0037.000000T0000Z-250820T0245Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Cochise AZ-
640 PM MST Tue Aug 19 2025

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM MST THIS 
EVENING FOR SOUTHERN COCHISE COUNTY...

At 640 PM MST, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms that produced 
heavy rain in the Hereford area have ended. Between 1 and 2.5 inches 
of rain have fallen. Flooding impacts will continue, but no 
additional rainfall is expected. Flash flooding is ongoing or 
expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing
         flash flooding.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams,
         urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Sierra Vista and Hereford.

This includes the following Flash Flood Prone Locations...
	Moson Rd from HWY 90 and Hereford Rd.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.

Remain alert for flooding even in locations not receiving rain. 
Washes, streams, and rivers can become raging killer currents in a 
matter of minutes, even from distant rainfall.

&&

LAT...LON 3152 11013 3151 11021 3146 11024 3139 11021
      3139 11016 3142 11010 3147 11010 3150 11011

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

GEL

971 
WGUS75 KTWC 200240
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
740 PM MST Tue Aug 19 2025

AZC003-200250-
/O.EXP.KTWC.FF.W.0037.000000T0000Z-250820T0245Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Cochise AZ-
740 PM MST Tue Aug 19 2025

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 745 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR 
SOUTHERN COCHISE COUNTY...

The heavy rain has ended. Flood waters have receded. Flooding is no 
longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to heed remaining 
road closures.

&&

LAT...LON 3152 11013 3151 11021 3146 11024 3139 11021
      3139 11016 3142 11010 3147 11010 3150 11011

$$

GEL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
213 PM MST Tue Aug 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms this week across
Southeast Arizona, with day to day variability in intensity and
chances. The big story for Southeast Arizona will be the extreme
heat returning the second half of the week. An Extreme Heat
Warning is in effect Wednesday morning through Friday evening.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Main story will be the increase in temperatures through the week
  and into the weekend, especially the abnormally warm low
  temperatures, resulting in areas of Major HeatRisk.

- Extreme Heat Warning in effect 10 AM Wednesday to 8 PM Friday
  for much of the
 lower desert areas in southeast AZ, including
  Pinal and Pima counties, the Upper Gila River Valley and the
  Upper San Pedro River Vally.

- Daily thunderstorm chances through the upcoming week, mainly
  bringing Minor Risk of strong, gusty winds and localized flash
  flooding with any strong thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION... The 4 corners high is here (finally) and looks to
stick around for a bit bringing daily chances for showers and
thunderstorms across Southeastern Arizona. Afternoon thunderstorms
have begun to tower and form, mainly in the higher terrain of the
Sky Islands east of Tucson. This will be the norm as storms will
struggle a tad to come off the mountains this afternoon and
evening. The 18Z sounding this afternoon shows the main threat is
flash flooding with the relatively slower storm motion at 5 to 10
kts and the PW coming in at 1.54 inches approaching the 90th
percentile of PW when compered to climatology. Compared to this
time yesterday, today's 18Z sounding shows less dry air above the
500 mb pressure line, allowing for the potential for taller storms
to form compared to days past but still lacks in instability and
CAPE. Strong outflow winds of 30-40 mph are still possible with
any storm. The best chances for thunderstorm activity remain east
of Tucson this afternoon and evening. Tucson is on the outer
fringes of the best chances, with the most likely scenarios for
storms in the metro would be from storms coming off the higher
terrain in the Catalinas and Rincons or getting some thunderstorms
moving from the Vail and Corona de Tucson areas to the NE.

Outside of today, daily showers and thunderstorm chances continue
with greater coverage of PoPs tomorrow expanding westward giving
slight chances into Western Pima County and Tohono Nation
Wednesday onward.

The temperatures continue to rise 4 to 6 degrees above normal with
warmer overnight lows bringing Major HeatRisk into the area Wednesday
through Friday, thus the Extreme Heat Warning remains in place.

As previous discussions mentioned, the high pressure begins to
drift southward early to mid next week, allowing for the
potential for more moisture to be shunted into the area, however
this all depends on how fast the ridge can break down and the low
pressure over the Pacific will influence the ridge.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 21/00Z.
SCT-BKN clouds AOA 10-15K with isolated -SHRA/-TSRA from KTUS
eastward now thru 20/06Z and again aft 20/19Z thru the end of the
period. Light and terrain driven winds through the forecast
period with gusts up to 40 kts possible with any thunderstorm
today. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Expect daily chances for thunderstorms and
wetting rain showers into next week. Min RHs will generally be
15-20 percent in the lower elevations and 20-30 in the mountains.
Winds will generally be less than 15 mph with typical afternoon
gusts up to 20 mph into next week. Temperatures will be above
normal this week, with an Extreme Heat Warning in the lower
elevations of Southeast Arizona Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM Wednesday to 8 PM MST Friday for
AZZ501>507-509.

&&

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